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The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are investigating former Republican congressman George Santos for alleged insider trading on prediction market Kalshi, NPR reported Tuesday.
What's the Scoop?
- What Santos Did: In February, the day before President Trump's State of the Union address, Santos posted a video claiming he would attend the speech from the gallery, causing the odds on Kalshi's market to soar. He secretly placed bets that he would not attend. When he failed to show and posted a follow-up complaining about having to watch from an airport TV, the odds collapsed, allowing him to profit in the tens of thousands of dollars. Kalshi detected the trades, froze his account, and referred the case to the CFTC and DOJ.
- Who Santos Is: Santos is the former New York congressman expelled from the House in December 2023 over fabrications about his background and federal fraud charges. He was released from federal prison in late 2025. Asked by NPR about the probe, Santos said "Well, that's news to me," declined to confirm whether he has a Kalshi account, and claimed personal familiarity with Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara as a “fellow brazilian”. A person familiar with Kalshi's investigation told NPR that Santos does not know Lara and has been dodging the exchange's requests for an interview.
- Kalshi's Enforcement Track Record: In April, the exchange fined and suspended three congressional candidates for betting on their own races, including one who allegedly bet on whether he would run for office before publicly announcing his candidacy. Those cases were handled as internal rule violations with five-year bans, fines, and profit disgorgement, but Kalshi said more serious matters could be referred to the CFTC or DOJ. The Santos case is the first major referral that has produced a confirmed federal investigation.
