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Galaxy Research lowered its odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 to 50%, cut from 60% earlier in June, citing Senate calendar constraints and stalled negotiations rather than problems with the bill itself.
What's the Scoop?
- The Downgrade: Galaxy head of firmwide research
Alex Thorn wrote Friday that the team cut the odds of Clarity Act passage in 2026 to 50-50, "as the Senate calendar tightens and a lack of progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than several weeks ago." Galaxy had previously lowered the odds to 60% on June 5. - It's About Timing, Not Substance: Thorn stressed the downgrade reflects the Senate calendar rather than the bill's content. No floor date has been set and no motion to proceed has been scheduled. The bill still needs a merged Banking-Agriculture text, a motion to proceed, floor debate, an amendment process, and then House action on whatever the Senate produces, all on a 60-vote threshold with a runway shrinking to "just a matter of weeks."
- The Trump Complication: Thorn said Trump further squeezed the calendar by warning he would withhold his signature from a housing bill unless Congress passes the SAVE Act, crowding the Senate's legislative schedule and hurting Clarity's odds.
- The Key Deadline: Thorn said Senate Majority Leader Thune should announce floor time by early July at the latest. Without a scheduling announcement by then, the path could slip to September, which "runs directly into the midterm dynamics" that make controversial votes hard to schedule. A Senate aide told The Block last week that Clarity will be "a top priority for Democrats and Republicans when the Senate returns in July."
