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Nasdaq Inc. is seeking to enter the prediction market space with binary event contracts tied to its Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: NDX) stock index.
What's the Scoop?
- Recent Filing: This Morning, Nasdaq MRX – the group's options exchange subsidiary – filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to list binary options tied to its flagship Nasdaq 100 stock index.
- Similar Structure: Although Nasdaq's filing entirely omits the terms "prediction market" and "event contract" (instead opting for "cash-settled, European-style binary options"), the proposed instruments would be highly similar Polymarket's BTC up/down markets, which offer fixed payouts for correctly determining the price direction of BTC in the next five minutes.
- TradFi Competition: CBEO Global Markets is reportedly targeting a Q2 launch for its "all-or-none" styled contracts focused on financial and economic events. Meanwhile, CME Group already offers prediction markets sports, economics, financials, crypto, and commodities.
NEW: Nasdaq is making its first real move into prediction markets.
— Frank Chaparro (@fintechfrank) March 2, 2026
The exchange wants to list binary options on the Nasdaq-100 — yes/no contracts priced from $0.01 to $1 that reflect the market’s implied probability of an outcome.
source: Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/DyOONxSjGW
