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Shortly after U.S. forces captured then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro last week, attention turned to a newly created Polymarket account that had bet roughly $32K on his ouster. The position, purchased when implied probability sat in the low single digits, netted over $400K.
The market for Maduro's removal began climbing hours before President Trump's announcement. Whether the trader possessed insider information remains unclear, but the optics alone, following suspiciously prescient calls such as particular bets on Google's year-end search term positions and Biden’s dropout odds, sparked immediate calls for action.
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