BREAKING: The ETH ETF is getting approved?!

What is going on, David? Do we have an Ethereum ETF on the menu? Possibly.

In the middle of a meeting that we are having at Bankless, we interrupt the meeting because Eric Balacunis, who knows a thing or two about the ETF, who's one of the two quote unquote ETF boys, ETF guys. Bloomberg Bros is what they call them.

Yeah, the Bloomberg Bros, the ETF Bros. Uh, tweets out, update James Seifert, the other, the other ETF bro, and I are increasing our odds of spot ether ETF approval to 75%, up from 25%. Hearing chatter this afternoon that the SEC could be doing a 180 on this increasingly political issue.

So now everyone is scrambling, like everyone else assumed they'd be denied. See Nate's tweet below for proper order of events. And so this has got to be a reaction to Saab 121, the 60 to 38 vote with a meaningful amount of high ranking Democrats defecting from Biden's stated uh policy of the fact that he's going to veto SAB 2012. Many Democrats nonetheless disregarded that and voted to repeal SAB 121, indicating that not all of the Democratic Party are in alignment with being anti crypto.

As a result of that, it seems that that's speculation, but it's pretty that's pretty

I think look, he said it said increasingly pr political pressure. This is what we've said.

and so something is going on behind the scenes. Eric and James would know about an SC uh the SEC and the ETH ETF being approved. Yes. To me, like they are upping it to 75%, which means, of course, there's a one in four chance that it's getting denied. In my opinion, the fact that this is happening at all.

It's happening now.

It's pretty binary.

It's just a few facts.

Very bullish.

So Thursday, uh, May 23rd is when the SEC has to either approve or deny it. Okay? So today it's Monday right now. So the fact that it's happening now tells you something. And uh both Eric and James, their sources for all of this, basically, all along they've been um saying the same message. If it was going to get approved,

Toward the end of May, we would have seen it in the paperwork. They monitor the docs, they monitor the filings, they sort through like the sifting of everything that's going on in like the filings, they keep track of it. And their constant refrain has been there's no way it's getting approved. Like under 25% odds. In fact, David, let's go to James, uh James's Twitter right now because I recall like seeing earlier, just today.

Uh that like look at this. This is from May 17th. All right, this is not today, but he said it's just not happening, guys. Talking about the Ethereum ETF.

And

Which is an accurate take for the data that he had at the time. Probably.

exactly, because they haven't seen anything come through. But this was this was kind of the Hail Mary pass, like the the if that we talked about on the roll up last week. We said, if, and this is a big if, if Biden and the Democrats wake up at the 11th hour and realize anti crypto Gensler is about to lose them the White House.

They may pressure Gensler to achieve. Basically, politics trumps all, particularly in election year. And this is what Eric is saying basically. It could be political pressure that is motivating Gensler and the SEC to actually approve. Now, again, we don't have 100% certainty here, but what we're taking from Eric and James is that they are seeing documents move.

They are seeing like good signs, paper filing at this 11th hour. And what else could that mean? So they have increased the odds of approval by two over 200% right now.

Yeah, up from 25%, which was very low. Uh, probably even I think people were counting for even lower than that, up to 75%. To me, this is binary, right? If it is indeed political pressure, then it is getting approved. And it's getting approved in the final hour because the Biden administration has realized that it's a close election and there is enough of a crypto vote out there to be meaningful. And they they want to be re elected more than they care about denying the spot Ether ETF. Can we can we pull up in the Kraken Price chart so we can look at the price of ETH?

Please. Yes.

When when ETH pumps, it pumps in slow motion.

Actually, this is all we got?

Well that's that's a one-day candle. Let's shorten it down to the 15-minute candles on the

Okay. Than thanks to Kraken for the charts. There you go.

ones.

Okay.

That's what we like.

Whenever I have seen Ether pump ever, it always pumps v slowly.

Over a long period of time. Because this market hates it. It has not gone gone down since like this this news got improved. So this is like the market is currently digesting this. We are currently on the fourth 15-minute candle.

What's that?

Well, that's on this on the 15 minutes. On the 15 minutes. To me, like we are currently pricing in $3,430 on the ETH on the ETH chart.

To me, we are if that again, if if it's getting approved, we are so far away from actual meaningful price equilibrium. Like this is

So cheap.

this is so dumb. Like we are not done yet.

We got 12% pumped.

12% possible on an ETH ETF for approval. This is like 1% if approved. This is at like 1% priced in. Like financial advice.

Not financial advice.

David is saying bye now. But not financial advice. This

is

I mean, okay, so uh the the price is pumping. Let's let's go back to James Seyford's treat tweet because you you read Eric Balchoonus. He says things are taking a turn for the better. Spot Ethereum uh ETF approvals this week, upping our odds to 75%. He says this. Never gonna hear the end of this.

That they're not hacked.

Yeah.

Yeah, he had to confirm he's not hacked. Never gonna hear the end of this from the dot eat people in my replies if this turns out to be true. But it's what we're hearing from multiple sources. Should see a bunch of filings over the coming days if we're correct. I I will know that um both David and I reached out to James and Eric.

And I don't think they can actually um we invited them to come on the live stream. And by the way, James Eric, if you guys are listening, come on the live stream. Let's tell us what you know. I I we got the sense that they actually can't reveal more than what they've already revealed on Twitter at this point in time.

Bloomberg, they have to push it through Bloomberg Bloomberg, their media organization.

Yes. And also I think that there's probably this is happening so last minute. They're still trying to figure out like what exactly is going on. But um you're like glad they got this uh this tweet out. Um, David, uh is this a little life on the ratio here?

A little bit

so low. An ETH ETF approval with the ETH Bitcoin ratio below 0.05 is insane. You know that the market is isn't even pricing this in appropriately. When Polymarket, I think you have that tab ready. Poly Polymarket is pricing it in at a 50%. Um hit refresh and then hit like the one day time.

This is the poly market, the prediction market odds of approval of Ethereum ETF approved by May 33nd.

Okay, so so it is getting up to 75%. Yeah. Okay. So like uh basically this information is informed by the Blue Bird people people.

Look, dude, it was it was 13% this morning.

13% up to 75%, approaching 75%. Currently at 69%. Nice. Um also Eleanor Terrett, who is another like commentator on the markets and crypto news, she says this is her as a primary source now, saying an issuer, one of the ETF issuer sources, tell me that things are evolving in real time. So like Black BlackRock, um, Bitwise, Fidelity, Fidelity, they are reacting right now in real time. Anyone who works at one of those companies right now

is currently in their Slack channel, like asking what freaking

out what the F is going on. Like what what do we need to change about our our uh ETTF like application? Like, what's going on? Are we gonna get approved?

Um the I'm sure the SEC office is also freaking out right now.

Shout out Gary Gensler who I'm sure is watching this channel. Uh I'm sure you're freaking out. Um yeah, so the the like

What do you mean freaking out? I mean, I think he's probably pretty calculated in this. He probably got some phone calls over the weekend and late last week. Um I who knows how this works behind the scenes, but

Yeah.

there's political pressure. Okay, so the reason I'm in a collared shirt, by the way, is just like uh I know you guys think I usually dress like this. David, David switched. I didn't get a chance to switch, is because earlier today we had uh an episode recording with Representative uh Patrick McHenry.