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There’s a storm brewing over prediction markets.
Platforms like
Polymarket and Kalshi have rocketed into mainstream awareness – driven by their knife fight for mindshare, society’s broader trend toward financializing everything, and the simple fact that prediction markets are a genuinely new financial primitive that deserve exploring.
Robinhood’s reported earnings last week confirms the growth trajectory that prediction markets have.
Robinhood annualized revenues from their prediction market products grew from $115M in Q3 to $435M in Q4. These numbers won’t even include the revenue from the Super Bowl and March Madness – those will be Q1 numbers. Less than a year into the product, prediction markets represent 11% of Robinhood's total revenue this quarter.
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Not everyone is happy about this, but nonetheless the incredible demand so far makes it clear: prediction markets are here to stay, and they're only getting bigger from here.
The Incoming Fights
Not everyone is happy about this. Prediction Markets have their work cut out for them to earn their spot in society – and it's not going to be an easy fight.
Prediction Markets must overcome three fundamental fights in order to maximize their potential:
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