Merge vs. Macro with Travis Kling

You know, I think I feel a little bit like I just heard

a long burst of machine gun fire. And I'm like looking at myself like, you know, did I just get hit by anything?

Hey Bankless Nation, we got an exciting state of the nation for you. An unstoppable force meets an immovable object. We've got two countervailing forces. We've got on the one hand the macro markets. In the left corner.

Yeah.

Macro

Looking pretty bad right now. Alright. Macro is still not doing the things we'd like it to do. Uh looking pretty ugly out there. And yet, the backdrop in the right corner, we have the merge, the Ethereum merge, which is Uber bullish for Ethe asset for all of crypto.

priced in.

It's already starting to get priced in. And uh you can see that in the charts, kind of this conflict. Well, in today's episode, we will explore this dichotomy, the merge versus macro. We have Travis Kling on the podcast, who is a fun manager and also an expert on things macro. And he's been talking about the merch a lot lately. David, what are we gonna talk about today?

Yeah, uh Travis, just like you said, focus on macro, macro expert, but also like super aware of crypto and the crypto dynamics. He's also one of uh the these uh there's a growing number of these uh types of Bitcoiners uh that used to just be like solely focused in the Bitcoin ecosystem that have caught the bug of the merge. So like the the deflationary narrative of Ether post-merge has like captured a few of these people.

The sad the sound money piece. Yeah, exactly. The ultra sound money piece, Ryan, of course. So I'm interested in hearing that story, but just it's super convenient that we have this macro expert who also understands crypto, who also understands the merge dynamics. And so if there's anyone who can tell us which one of these uh who which side of this tug of war is going to win, I think it's gonna be Travis.

Yeah, I know who I'm written for in this too. Definitely over the right corner.

I think this is a really overall an interesting poll. We should put this poll, we'll put this poll out of the bankless Twitter account as this episode airs. Which is stronger. Yeah, which is stronger. The merge versus macro.

Place your best.

Also, we now have video of Bankless Podcast in Spotify. So previously, video was only available on YouTube. Now they are available in Spotify as well. So if you want to go check out Bankless videos on Spotify, go to Spotify, search Bankless, and you can view them there. David, what is the state of the nation today, my friend?

The state of the nation is cautiously optimistic, Ryan. I think that will resonate with very many many people as we've watched ETH just rocket off of the floor, like skipped over the 1300s, skipped over the 1400s, straight into the 1500s. And I think that's just, you know, the game of chicken is like who's going to press the buy button first before the merge? That game has definitely started to play out. And some people are definitely hitting the buy button ahead of the merge. I can't really think of any other explanation for that price action. We have like the clearest dates for the merge of all time. So you can and you can see that being reflected in the charts. The merge being de risked. It's actually going to happen in the face of a terrible, terrible macro setup. We have uh our last podcast with Luke was uh named uh the worst macro setup we've seen in 20 plus years. Uh so we're gonna go ahead and talk to Travis about that just in a second.

Guys, we're gonna get right to the episode with Travis, but before we do, we want to thank the the sponsors that made this episode possible. Bankless Nation, we are super excited to introduce you to Travis Kling. He's the founder and CIO, that is Chief Investment Officer of IKuy Asset Management. Also, recently launched a venture fund. We are here to talk about macro and the merge. Travis, how are you doing, man?

I'm doing well. Thanks for having me, guys. Looking forward to this.

It's great to have you. How like how are you feeling about things? First of all, let's start there. Get your temperature checked. It's our first question for everyone, because uh we're in the depths of um a bear market. So people are calling this. Are you feeling bearish? How are you feeling in general? What's your vibe?

Um, you know, I think I feel a little bit like I just heard

a long burst of machine gun fire, and I'm like looking at myself like,

you know, did I just get hit by anything? Um and and and not to not to make light of

Folks that lost a lot of money, uh, because that that certainly has happened over the last couple months, but

I've been been doing this for a while now. Um

You were in the bulletproof vest then.

not not not exactly a bulletproof vest, but but I just think um

you know every couple years this

ecosystem this this this asset class does one of these things where

it just wipes a bunch of people out. And we just had one of those and historically

Those mark cyclical bottoms.

History doesn't repeat, it rhymes. So there are nuances to this one

relative to prior dumps, but

now's definitely not the time to get Uber bared up. And I'm not, you know, I think we're much closer to

a cyclical bottom.

We can argue about the specifics around price or time and the factors that go into that, which I'm sure we're going to talk about today. But no, I mean

This too shall pass. This uh this technology still has a a a tremendous potential to make the world a better place, and it's still my base case. This is gonna be the best performing asset class over a

you know three year, five year, ten year, probably twenty year time frame. So

Yeah, I feel like uh as long as you don't have margin, right? Which hopefully like lessons were learned previous cycles, uh, and as long as you didn't lend anything to three hours capital, uh you're probably doing okay. And maybe you're actually excited about this dip buying opportunity if you have some uh powder dry and you have some like stable coins and dollar assets.

yeah. I mean I mean I mean I can't believe this market gave me another shot on goal from twenty K BTC and one K ETH, but that's where we are, and and that that's a tremendous opportunity.

We went to triple digits. I didn't even think we'd see that again. I mean, I thought there was a possibility, but that's surprising on ETH.

Yeah, just never say you never say never in crypto. That's uh

that's a that's a a good rule to make sure you stay alive and stay in the game.

I know in the in the first half of this episode, we want to get your measure on the macro markets because everyone has a vantage point on the macro markets. And right now, in this state of overall confusion, just getting more and more perspectives as to where we are in these macro, this macro world is definitely super useful. But uh just keeping on with crypto just a little bit more, there's this debate going on in crypto Twitter of uh the bottom, the bottom hasn't felt pre like previous bottoms. Like it didn't really feel in the same way that other bottoms felt. And so some people are saying, like, oh, okay, that means the bottom's not in. Like we haven't felt max pain. We still need more liquidations. We're not totally done yet. Uh, we're just like, there was, you know, the first wave of liquidations, which was three euros capital, but then there's more coming. Uh, and that'll be the actual true bottom. And then there's other people who are like, it doesn't have to like repeat previous history, even though that's what people say that that it has to do. I'm wondering if you had a perspective on this. Like, are we do we is there more max pain ahead of us? Or do are you in the fan that uh in the camp that no, it doesn't have to repeat like every other cycle in history?

Yeah, it definitely doesn't have to do anything. Um yeah, I'm I'm I mean Bitcoin just because it's been around the longest, speaking to that specifically, I mean it it

can do things it's never done before. It has, you know, recently done things that it has never done before and certainly could

continue to do things that it that it that it hasn't done before. Um I'm I'm not married to

Any particular view. I think now is an outstanding time to be dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin and Ethereum. And that's not financial advice. None of this is financial advice. But you know, you may not get the bottom dollar. We could go lower from here or or or we could, you know, the low could already be in. But you know, if you're just DCAing over the coming months here, I think you look back on that with uh any kind of medium to long term time frame, and and I'm I'm I'm pretty highly confident that's that's going to look like an outstanding uh uh decision to have been made.

So, okay, so let's roll into the macro markets because that's the place that's giving me a bunch of confusion, and I'm sure a bunch of uh confusion for the listeners as well. Because the the market just kind of seems to be stuck between like bearish or bullish, as we've kind of already indicated. Uh it's bearish because the Fed might overshoot and cause a recession or worse. Uh, but it also could be bullish because they're about to pivot and you know turn on the money printer. You know, you could be you could be bearish because risk on assets are bad to have in a recession, uh, or you could still be bullish because even in a recession, where are people gonna park all their money? Like you said, crypto is still gonna be the best performing asset class of you know five, 10, 20 years. So, like, do you feel this like tug-of-war between bearish or bullish on macro, or is it more clear for you?

Uh it's

I think the setup is pretty clear. What's going to happen is is not that clear. Um, you know, d don't fight the Fed has been an adage that's been around for decades.

Uh it's all one trade, you know, has been around for over two years, I think, at this point.

And

I think

neither of those have been more true.

Than they are today.

And they both speak to the same backdrop, which is admittedly a pretty creepy backdrop, which is

central bank actions in the current

monetary regime

have such an overwhelmingly powerful impact on all asset prices that everything else is pretty much just an afterthought.

And uh another kind of adage that that uh I've been saying for a few years now is that Bitcoin loves QE and detests QT.

Loves quantitative easing,