ETH to $22k by 2030? | VanEck's Matthew Sigel

Everyone who owns a 6040 portfolio has exposure to Meta, and that stock fell 80% peak to trough in the bear market, which was like i i more than bitcoin. And you know, in our view, if we if we are correct that Ethereum is the open source app store, then it is going to directly attack the margins of a lot of these centralized web two companies through a combination of technological innovation and a different regulatory regime.

Bankless Nation, can ETH get to $154,000 by 2030? That is the number for the bull case for ETH that is in Vanneck's ETH 2030 price target, an optimal portfolio allocations report, which VANEC is sending around to all of its Wall Street and banking clients in order to inform the world of TradFi why it's beneficial to include not just Bitcoin, but specifically also ETH into their typical investment portfolio. Now, in addition to the 154,000 bullish scenario for ETH, there's also the 22,000 base case and the $340 bear case for ETH. And I asked Matthew on the show to unpack the calculus behind each of these scenarios. What does Ethereum need to do if it wants to earn that bull case valuation? What are the factors that go into these numbers? And also, what about the macro markets? How are they factored in? And also, lastly, why it's rational, according to Van Eck, for all 6040 traditional portfolio investors to include up to 6% of their portfolio and a 50-50 mix of Bitcoin and ETH now that these things are available to them in their ETF form. One thing to note while we get into Van Eck's 2024 report on ETH is that they also had a 2023 report on ETH where the base case for ETH was $11,800. In this report, just one year later, the base case for ETH by 2030 is $22,000, so almost 2x more.

One of the conversations that we have in this episode is how did that change? What changed? Uh hint, it's a little bit something to do with denkun and denk sharding. Uh, there's also the conversation of the ETF. Vanick is one of the people in the race who issue the Ethereum ETF. So we get his perspective as to whether or not there's going to be outsized demand for the Ethereum ETF, undersized demand for the ETH ETF, and why people might like it. And of course, we're getting into one of the many conversations that we've had on Banklist recently, which is how to actually pitch ETH. What is Ethereum? What is ETH? Why is it useful to have in a portfolio for per somebody who doesn't really necessarily understand it? One of the most crypto-native financial institutions that's out there that definitely knows how to speak crypto. That's why we've had Matthew Siegel on the show multiple times before, and why we're having him back again today. But also he talks to traditional clients, he talks to banks, he talks to Wall Street. Uh, so he spans both worlds. So he's always very useful to get him on the show and get his perspective, which is what we are doing here today on this episode. So let's go ahead and get right into it. Bankless Nation, excited to introduce you to Matthew Siegel, head of digital assets research at Vanneck. Matthew is responsible for formulating the company's digital asset strategies. Also sits on some of the investment committees for several of Vanneck's private funds. Matthew has been on the Bankless program before. Matthew, welcome back to Bankless. Hey David, how are you? Good. Good, my man. Uh, it's gotta be a pretty interesting time to be you. Uh Van Eck and is entering into the world of crypto more and more and more these days, especially as the SEC is opening that door. Overall, just like Five Check. What's it look what's it like to be at Van Eck these days?

It's awesome, David. We've had great performance over the course of this bull market. We've introduced a lot of new products. We're building some crypto native applications like a stablecoin and an NFT platform. We're hiring.

So, you know, growth is always better than the alternative.

That's what we like to hear, my man. Yeah, it's it's just an exciting time to be in the space of crypto and it's especially right at the intersection of both being crypto native, which I definitely would say Van Eck is, but also being very fluent in Trad, fluent in Wall Street. Uh so definitely an exciting time. And definitely also out of the world of Van Eck is this uh report that you guys wrote, which is gonna be the subject of today's podcast. Uh report titled ETH 2030 Price Targets and Optimal Portfolio Allocations. And as soon as anyone opens up this report, you see some pretty bullish numbers for ETH the asset. Uh there's a base case, a bull case, and a bear case, of course. And the bull case goes all the way up to $154,000 Ether by 2030, which are like me and Ryan are pretty bullish here at Banklist, but that's a large number. Uh so we kind of want to unpack this report, like, talk about how you actually came to these numbers, and also like who is this report for and what is its purpose? So maybe you can start with that. What's the why behind this report? Like, why produce these things? Who is this report for? What's the point?

Yeah, well, now that the SEC has at least theoretically approved spot Ethereum ETFs to trade, uh, it's obviously important to explain the investment case uh for this asset. Uh uh overall

There's a bigger market for income-producing assets than there are for inert assets like Bitcoin. So it's not impossible that, you know, in a decade the market for an Ethereum ETF could be bigger than Bitcoin. But in the meantime, we have to educate traditional finance market participants as to why this asset matters. There's a lot of analogies that have been attempted, and the one that we've honed in on is open source app store. So we think that Ethereum is a productive asset that lets anyone open a storefront on this network, and they can do so at a lower take rate than big tech currently charges. So it's an open source app store with payments functionality bundled in essentially for free. And we wanted to explain the mechanics of how that works and put some numbers around the PL, the profit and loss statement of Ethereum. So we went through this model with you guys, maybe it was about a year ago, and now we have updated it to consider, I guess, two major changes. The first is that we have increased our overall penetration rates for open source databases, and we expect that in aggregate these open source digital assets can intermediate about 7% of the current top line of financial applications like payments, borrowing, and lending. And that's up from 5% in our previous model. The basic idea is that the political backdrop has improved and block space demand is somewhat higher than we initially anticipated. The other change is that we increased the take rate that we expect the Ethereum ecosystem to earn from all of this application activity from 3% to 5%. These are still quite small numbers in the context of what, say, the Apple App Store charges or Google Play. So those are the major changes that get us to this $22,000 base case. It still assumes, the model still assumes, and we do this for all of our layer ones, that in order to achieve the base case, the project has to achieve about a 70% market share of all layer ones. So we have this kind of guiding light that these networks have a lot of winner-take-all characteristics, and one or two platforms are likely to capture the majority of that. And we're trying to own these call options and then probability weight, the chance of achieving that 70% market share. So that part is unchanged. But for context's sake, uh Ethereum's market share over the last 12 months is 58%. Uh in terms of that's that's market share of fees paid by users. Uh so there is two networks.

Correct. Correct. So there is some lifting to do to execute on the scaling roadmap and get folks actually using these L2s.

So yeah, just so you brought up some of the previous context here. A year ago, you guys had a pretty similar report where you had a base case of eleven thousand eight hundred dollars by 2030 for ETH. In this report, that base case has gone up to $22,000. So basically 2Xing. Um I just want to unpack that change between your guys' analysis last year versus this year. Was that because of you guys are getting more increasingly bullish on crypto the category or Ethereum the network? Or a little bit of both. Maybe you can unpack that a little bit more.

Yeah, it's a little bit of both. So the two parts of the model that we changed that had the biggest impact on the price target. The first is that we take a look at the end markets that open source databases might go after, and we basically segment them into four. The first is finance, banking, and payments, so traditional financial sector applications. That is by far the largest. The second is marketing, advertising, social, and gaming. So I'd like roughly call that metaverse. The third is infrastructure applications. And the fourth is AI. And we have uh penetration rates for each of those four sectors that we think crypto can achieve. Uh the one sector that we increased was finance from 5% to 7.5%. Um part of that is just realizing that we're in the middle of a bull market that we think is going to accelerate uh with uh with the November election uh of President Trump, hopefully. Uh that should increase the overall available market for crypto assets. Uh and then for ETH specifically, uh the first model was uh made before the Dan Coon fork. So recognizing um some of the scaling uh progress that ETH has made, uh that that accounts for the larger take rate that we have for the Ethereum network overall, which goes from 3% to 5%. Uh I guess if there's a third, it's the uh we we introduced our AI estimates into this piece, uh, and we have a separate report on on how AI and crypto intersect. But

that's a relatively small adjustment. The biggest uh is the penetration rate of finance.

Okay, cool, great. As soon as uh I want to get into the actual calculus of the 22,000 base case and 154,000 bull case. But one last thing that I want to uh bring up that that you mentioned uh Ethereum, ever since the ETH ETF was, like you said, theoretically approved, uh there's been a broad conversation about like, all right, how do we pitch this thing? And Bitcoin has this luxury of being very simple. It's digital gold. Uh that's what it is. That's it, it's the first crypto asset, and that's all you really need to know about. It doesn't really go too further down than that. People, I'm assuming, are buying the Bitcoin ETF without like truly deeply understanding the nuances of like crypto technology. It's like, oh, yeah, just own digital gold. ETH doesn't really have the same luxury. And so different people are explaining uh Ether and Ethereum differently. You have said that uh it is an open source uh app store for financial apps. Uh, and this has been definitely resonant with some of the other perspectives that I had. The developer platform, the app store platform, the tech platform is definitely something that people have like circled around on as like a good angle for Eth and Ethereum. It's not the only one, but it's definitely one that people uh have like um circled in around. Maybe you can just like unpack a little bit of your analysis as how you guys came to that particular narrative for Eth and Ethereum. Why is that one the best one?

Yeah, it's a it's a challenging uh mental model because uh we think Ethereum is a novel asset and there are few parallels in the non-crypto financial world. So, you know, we're sympathetic to the idea of ETH as digital oil uh because it is consumed by engaging in activity on Ethereum. Uh we're sympathetic to the analogy of programmable money uh because uh Ethereum assets, activity using Ethereum assets can occur automatically, you know, without an intermediary. Uh and we're also sympathetic to ETH as a yield bearing commodity uh because you can earn yield by pledging ETH non custodially to validators uh who govern the Ethereum network. But uh

Overall, we think the simplest mental model is ETH as an open source app store. Um this uh I guess digital mall would be uh a comparison to open source app store. And w you know, we look at

The number of monthly users, uh 20 million, and then we look at the revenue per user uh annually, and uh Ethereum users on average spend more than $170 a year in consumable gas on the Ethereum network. Um, that compares to Twitch at $120, eBay, $75, Facebook, $45, Instagram, $25. So you basically have a very wealthy and active user base uh building applications, and the Ethereum network itself uh generates a take rate from all this activity. And when we compare that take rate to what Google Play and the Apple App Store earn, uh we measure that the current Ethereum take rate is about 24%. So it's not a 10x improvement at all versus uh App Store and Google Play. But that take rate goes down. Uh it's currently 14% for non-DeFi apps, uh and for simple payments, as you know on uh ETH L2s, it is you know fractions of 1%. So our thesis is that as this uh open source app store gains scale and Ethereum uh itself uh proceeds on its scaling roadmap, that the overall take rate, ETH's take rate, will drop to five to ten percent.

Over the next 18 months as the activity shifts to the less expensive layer twos where take rates are 25 to 30 BIPS. And we think that both entrepreneurs and investors will gravitate towards these lower take rates and permissionless environment.

Beautiful. Okay. And the nice thing that I enjoy when I come to talk to you, Matthew, and all the people at Van Eck is that uh you guys get to come on bankless because you can speak crypto, you're very fluent. But then you also, I'm assuming, are not generating these narratives and these explanations in a vacuum. You guys also have customers and clients at Van Eck, who I'm assuming you guys are bouncing these uh pitches or narratives or explanations off of. Like how when you when you give these this explanation, this like pitch for ETH to your customers, to uh to the to the people that are are um you know clients of Van Eck, how does it land? How do they react?

I'd say it's it's very, very early. Our the largest customers tend to be the uh the bank owned brokers.

Like the Morgan Stanley's, Merrill Lynch's, UBS's. And they really are still in the beginning stages of introducing Bitcoin ETFs. The advisors are not allowed to buy those products unless the customer demands them. So these assets are still not integrated into the holistic investment philosophy, which is generally set by like a chief investment officer who has some type of 60-40 model portfolio and then is like adjusting tactically around the edges. And we're optimistic that some of those models are going to include Bitcoin over the course of the next year in the kind of 1 to 3% range. And we're trying to get kind of ahead of a potential diversification play by framing the Ethereum thesis. I think our traditional customers are still, you know, some distance away from buying that. But that's what we have the next couple months, I guess, to educate them. But like I said at the onset, overall the market for productive assets is bigger than the market for kind of inert commodities. And when we look at the type of performance that, and this really gets to the second part of the piece that maybe we'll talk about, but when we look at the performance of Ethereum in, you know, either versus Bitcoin or in a 60-40 portfolio, the type of uh return and risk that it introduces, there it there are some powerful diversification benefits. And the impact on the portfolio drawdown, meaning like how much you can lose, is uh relatively small. So I like to introduce this comparison to uh Facebook stock ticker M E T A, uh, which is about um

Uh a two and a half percent weight in the S P 500. So everyone who owns a 6040 portfolio has exposure to Meta, and that stock fell 80% peak to trough in the bear market, which was like more than Bitcoin. Uh and you know, in our view, if we if we are correct that Ethereum is the open source app store, then it is going to directly attack the margins of a lot of these centralized web 2 companies through a combination of technological innovation and a different regulatory regime. So we try to kind of compare the performance of Ethereum with the performance of things that our clients already own. And when they're presented with that data, you know, the light bulb can kind of go off. And it's like, oh, this is not necessarily more risky than some of the things I already own.

Okay, so let's get into some of the calculus that goes behind some of these numbers. Like, what are the parameters that really produce the bear base and bull cases? Like, just to reiterate some of the numbers here, the bear case that you guys have is extremely bearish at $360 per ETH. We haven't seen $360 per ETH since I got into Ethereum in 2017. So to say that's bearish is like almost kind of an understatement. The bullish scenario is $154,000, which is more bullish than I think I've seen most people articulate in my spheres. And then the base case is kind of around like more or less my base case, which is $22,000 by 2030. What's some of the numbers? Like you guys aren't just like licking your finger and sticking it up to the wind and like catching a vibe. You guys are like backing into these numbers via some some calculations. Maybe you can like unpack for us uh what are the parameters that really are producing the bulk of these numbers here?

So the the parameters are uh

The size of the markets that Ethereum can disintermediate. And so that starts with like just the top-line revenue for these sectors, finance, marketing, advertising, infrastructure, AI. And that sums currently to about $13 trillion in addressable revenues that Ethereum can go after. The second parameter is the market share for crypto overall. What percent of those revenues can they actually disintermediate? And those numbers, depending on the sector, range between 5% and 20% in our base case. So this is not a scenario of mass adoption. Even in our base case, the penetration rates for crypto are relatively low.

Uh the third parameter is uh Ethereum's market share, uh which uh we assume for all of our base cases, because this is a uh a kind of winner-take-all world, that the number one chain gets about 70% market share in the base case, uh 90% in the bull case.

The next parameter

is the value capture. So how much does the Ethereum ecosystem actually keep of all of that? Call it transaction value. That number is between 5 to 10%, depending on the sector. And then we have to pay away some costs to validators. We assume that all of the profits are taxed at 15%. We have to arrive at a terminal ETH supply, which is kind of tricky to do. Our base case is a $100 million.

And then we apply a terminal multiple of earnings, or in this case, free cash flow that an investor would pay. And we use about a 3% free cash flow yield, so 33 times free cash flow, which is comparable to a reasonably fast growing software company. So those are the parameters. What that ends up with is that we forecast that the Ethereum network will generate $66 billion in free cash flows that accrue to the ETH token. And when you multiply that by 33 and then divide by the 100 million coins, it's 22,000 per coin.

Okay, beautiful. Okay, so what maybe highlight some of the most important parameters here that are in the the this calculus? Maybe they're all like equally important. Maybe some are more important than others, but like say for example, ETH did get to that extremely bullish number of like $154,000 per token. Like what were the things that Ethereum, the network, did that that got it there? Like what were the success stories, would you say?

So in that case, uh ETH would be capturing of all uh smart contract uh value intermediation. Uh and uh they would be collecting, let's see, in the bull case, so the penetration rates get get pretty chunky. So um Ethereum essentially accounts for 15% of the total uh financial markets, uh, and then 50% of the advertising market uh hosted on open source blockchains, and between 20 to 25 percent of uh IT infrastructure and AI uh going through open source blockchains. So I'd say in that world, probably emerging markets are doing uh very well, and the US dollar is doing extremely poorly, and the US regulatory state has either like fully embraced open source digital assets, which I think is unlikely, or you completely ceded them to other countries. And then uh in that bull case, uh Ethereum is capturing a pretty sizable percentage of the value. So remember the take rates that I told you about right now, it's about 24%. Uh we think they're gonna fall to five to ten percent. Uh in the in the bull case, uh they're still in the kind of 8% range. So there, uh I guess we'd say that Ethereum, in the bull case, manages to hold on to its pricing.

Understood. And uh a lot of the calculus uh that you emphasize here, it's it's measuring against the current size of a very real pie that's out there, like real industries with real revenues. You guys aren't like uh hypothesizing or like extrapolating out like what could be, but this is like taking real data that we have about industries that are adjacent to Ethereum, that Ethereum is attempting to penetrate, and looking at that size of that pie, which is massive across all these uh different industries that you've talked about, right? Like business services, yeah, exactly.

Like we haven't we have one of the questions I got we got on Twitter on this is like does this um assume some type of hyperinflationary US dollar scenario? Like wouldn't we get to 150K really easily? Uh and uh our for our economic forecast in this model, we just use like the CBO data. We basically assume that the economy grows at 3% forever with no recession and that there's no hyperinflation. But I should point out that Jan Van Eyck currently ascribes a 10% chance to what he calls a disorderly uh US dollar devaluation. And he's looking at uh the need to reform uh Social Security, uh which uh needs to get done next year in 2025, because if we generally we only do big

government policies in this country the year after an election. And if we don't get it done in twenty twenty five, then twenty twenty nine is kind of too late. Uh and and that's where the market could get um you know very unhappy with the US dollar. But that is not accounted for in this case. We're sticking with like the ninety percent chance that everything goes relatively smoothly.

Right. Okay. So if like the listener has an opinion about the future macro state of the globe, the US dollar, the United States financial system, that's that opinion you can layer on top of this analysis. It's not inside of this analysis.

Exactly.

Okay, so the 154,000 uh bull case to the $360 bear case is like

a pretty wide range. That's like starting to encompass like most possible numbers for ETH. Can you talk about just like how is this is like the 154,000 the most bullish possible scenario, like the 1% m bullish scenario, and like the $360 ETH price is like the 1% most bearish scenario? Like, how should we think about this like pretty large range between the the cases that you guys have presented here?

That's a good question.

I think the you know the bear case is uh like a five to ten percent chance it would require uh

really negative regulatory environment in the US and probably some sort of technical glitch that causes Ethereum to lose a massive amount of market share. Um so we think that's quite unlikely. Um, you know, base case in that like 50 to 60 percent range, uh, and then bull case, you know, 10 to 20 percent.

And then the I remember, um, Matthew, we had you on uh a year ago about this one particular report. Uh and then we also had you on at the end of year for more of just like a kind of a market summary. Uh and I th I think if I can remember correctly, um you talked about Ethereum's growing pains as a result of this like lack of scalability. And then you've also highlighted the introduction of Dangkun in this report as um Ethereum like winning back some of that potential like market share that it might have lost. And in that same report, it was like the the the year reflections. You also talked about like put uh potential outsized growth for Solana.

Which definitely happened as a like post both during and also post that report. Maybe you can kind of just like walk us through your own journey of just like your perception over the crypto arc over the last like 12 months or so. A lot of things have happened, right? We've seen the resurgence of Solana, uh, we've seen the intro introduction of data availability into the Ethereum network. We've also seen the launch of other networks like Celestia and the introduction of Eigenlayer and restaking. Uh, maybe you can like zoom out and like reflect upon like where you hoped crypto would be going over this last year and where it's actually gone and any sort of like sentiment that you have about that.

One of the reasons that we were so bullish on Solana and remain quite bullish is because of the ability to extract uh MAV.

So um

in the wake of the Tolley Justin Drake debate that you guys hosted, you know, there was uh considerable conversation online about um

Whether

Solana's larger MEV earnings are intentional, sustainable, etc. And I should have mentioned that the MEV take rate is one of the parameters in our ETH model. And we currently have it at about 0.1. That's the kind of take rate. And when you look at year to date, how much MEV SOL and ETH are generating, it is true that Sol is generating about 2x the amount of MEV as ETH on a percentage basis. So it's 0.16% on Sol and about 0.08% on ETH. So that's kind of the trade-off is the shorter block times, the slightly higher degree of centralization on Solana creates more prospects for MEV and it makes uh short-term trading more attractive. And that's why Solana has a kind of higher chance of becoming the NASDAQ of crypto in our view. And that thesis, I guess, is playing out along our expectations. If you read our report on Ethereum L2s from like a month or two ago, um

We

The precursors to this report are in here, like the Denkun Fork lowering transaction costs dramatically, clearly has opened up a lot of white space for L2 applications, and the the take rate that they're paying to Ethereum has gone down a lot. We just haven't really seen the demand materialize to soak up uh all of that new supply. And the MEV that's being generated is less on like a uh dollar for dollar basis than on Solana. So there's still kind of

more work to be done, I guess I would say.

But we're uh s impressed by the execution on Denkun, at least.

Certainly. One one data point that I've been hoping somebody can put together, and maybe you have a notion of this, is some notion of uh MEV efficiency. The Ethereum MEV supply chain has become like very robust. Like there's many intermediating players, there's a lot of like bots that are like going after pennies, margins are super compressed in the um MEV supply chain in Ethereum to create what I'll call some sort of notion of like MEV efficiency, efficiency of MEV like per transaction. Uh whereas um in Solana, I don't think it has that level of um maturity in the MEV supply chain. There's a lot of like slippage that's on uh Solana DEXs, and this is where I think a lot of the um amount of Solana MEV comes from. Uh and so there's like more MEV per transaction, is like my my intuition um inside of Solana, simply because like that MEV uh ecosystem hasn't like um had that time to mature that it's had on Ethereum. I'm wondering if uh if you've done any sort of investigation or research in just like the efficiency of MEV uh to compare between these two ecosystems.

I mean MEV is kind of a double-edged sword because one person's slippage is another person's arbitrage opportunity, and it's the arbitrage opportunity that drives market makers into the space and creates uh dynamism. So, you know, Justin Drake on your debate uh kind of uh pinpointed the issue here, which is that um there's like 7,000 Ethereum blocks a day, there's 216,000 Solana blocks a day. Uh each block gives you these ordering rights, and winning the blocks uh is easier if you are really close because you have this information advantage and you get to say you get to have the last say in that block bidding. But that advantage only works for the very last portion of the transactions hitting the block, say like the hundred last uh milliseconds. So if you look at the size of each block for Solana, a quarter of the block offers this latency advantage. And for Ethereum, it's like one one hundredth. So you get more surface area on Solana to get this latency sensitive MEV and more chances to get it because you have more blocks. And so I think the so what is that the short block times give lots of instances where someone with great latency can take advantage to better rearrange the blocks. And that has a somewhat centralizing impact because the best builders win. And I think it explains why MEV is such a larger percentage of our revenue line for Solana than it is for Ethereum. So in our uh sole price target, uh MEV comprises roughly two thirds uh of the revenues, and for ETH it's uh closer to one third or 35%. And that's by design. Like one is not necessarily better than the other, uh, it's it's trade offs.

Is this like bullish for Solana the network when it comes in to have its turn with some of these this calculus? Is it bearish the Solana network just because like uh maybe this inhibits some of the growth and user adoption if users are are feeling like they're getting extracted from? Like do you do you have an opinion here or does the calculus just not care?

I think it's bullish because it attracts market makers to the space in order to invest and build and try to establish that advantage uh at the latency level. So yeah, I I I I I I

Recognize the trade-offs, which is that it it creates this kind of oligopoly of uh MEV extractors, uh, but oligopoly might be too harsh a term because I think that number is not going to be two or three players who have 90%, but some larger number. And the end user will benefit from the uh cheap transaction costs. Uh it's just that you'll have a a handful of kind of high MEV earners.

I want to get into one of the sections back in the uh this ETH 2030 price target. Number three, optimal BTC and ETH allocation in a crypto-only portfolio. And then also the next one, an efficient frontier when including crypto. I think the the um the gist of this section is just like uh the returns profile that you get when you have a Bitcoin profile portfolio, an Ether portfolio, a mixed portfolio. And I'm assuming this leads into some sort of like uh advice or perspective that you can give your customers about like how maybe how much crypto do they want to include in their portfolio? Uh maybe you can kind of just give us the punchline of like what people need to know out of these sections.

Sure. Uh so

What we wanted to do was give our clients some examples of how BTC and ETH together have impacted a traditional 6040 portfolio. And we want to look at the trade-offs between return and risk. So for each additional amount of volatility that a higher crypto allocation introduces to a portfolio, how much extra return do you get? And so we performed that analysis with more than 150 sample portfolios, and we introduced incremental additions of crypto exposure starting with 0% and moving up to 6%. And what we found was that each time we add more crypto to this traditional 60-40 portfolio, the portfolio's sharp ratio, which is a measurement of return divided by risk, continues to increase. So the max 6% allocation produced the best risk-adjusted return. And the really surprising part was when for investors who can tolerate relatively high risk portfolio allocations, so something like a 20% annualized volatility, and for perspective, the S P 500 is about 10%.

So that is a significant increase. But if you're willing to stomach a 20% annualized VOL, which is not crazy for a young, healthy working person, then an allocation of up to 20% in crypto keeps improving that risk reward. And that's a pretty chunky number that I think might might surprise people. And then the other thing that we did is that we did a measurement of BTC and ETH volatility adjusted. So what's the best weight to own of those two assets that combined, which will provide the best risk adjusted returns? And on that we see roughly a 70 30 weight of BTC and ETH as providing the highest Sharp ratio.