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01:19:00 · 4 years ago
Ethereum

ETH Is NOT Ultrasound Money with Jon Charbonneau

In today's episode, Jon unpacks his relatively controversially titled new piece, "ETH Is Not Ultrasound Money: Part 1"

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Inside the episode

Is ETH doomed? Was Ultrasound money a myth? Tune in to hear Jon's arguments.


TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

5:06 Jon's Argument

11:30 Triple Point Asset Thesis

17:52 ETH

18:53 The Disagreement

22:10 Semantics

26:40 Profit

30:00 PoW vs. PoS

33:15 Does Issuance Matter? & L1s & L2s

37:57 Blockchain Sustainability

42:00 Deflation vs. Inflation Value

47:50 How is Jon's Argument Bullish?

51:35 Alt L1s Issuance

59:20 Jon's Model Spreadsheet

1:17:53 Closing & Disclaimers


RESOURCES

Transcript
00:05
Jon Charbonneau

ETH is not ultrasound money. I can't believe I said that. Almost choked on the words. David!

00:12
Jon Charbonneau

Why is that the subject of today's episode? What in the world are we talking about? Isn't this sacrilege?

00:17
David

Yeah, so we have a new framework on the scene for understanding ETH the asset. And this is coming from John Chobonell Charbonneau, uh, who uh is proposing this alternative uh perspective on understanding ether the asset. And these that he is starting to push back against some of the frameworks that you and I have proposed, Ryan. Uh things like blockchain profitability, inflation versus deflation, eth as ultrasound money. So there's a new framework on the scene uh that John is bringing to the table. And so John perhaps has a thing to teach us about Ether the asset, our beloved asset, Ryan. And so we're going to investigate this new framework, this new model for understanding Ether, uh, as put forth by John. And that is the topic of today's episode.

01:00
Jon Charbonneau

I'm not sure I'm ready, David.

01:02
David

Yeah.

01:02
Jon Charbonneau

Um I'll have to really open my mind on this one. Um but uh yeah, really looking forward to someone who's been down the rabbit hole and gone pretty deep pretty quickly. I remember the last time we had John on, he taught us a thing or two about Ethereum's roadmap, talked about the different um execution, uh the different layers of Ethereum, data layer, execution layer, consensus layer, and kind of the roadmap for each. So um he's definitely gone deep down the rabb rabbit hole with Ethereum, and he's someone whose opinion I've come to respect about this. So I'm excited to hear what he has to say. So stay tuned for that, Bankless Nation. Why ETH is not ultra sound money? Oh, I said it again. Uh it pains me, but we're gonna get right into that topic.

01:43
Jon Charbonneau

Right after we tell you about some of the fantastic sponsors that made this episode possible, including Kraken, which is our number one recommended exchange for 2023. Go open an account. These guys are the best.

01:55
David

Bankless Nation, I want to introduce you to John Charbonneau, formerly research at Delphi Digital, but now a recent co-founder of DBA, doing business as a New York-based crypto investment firm. John here, I think, holds the record for the fastest person, perhaps down the crypto rabbit hole, going from the entrance of the frontier of crypto to the uh going from the entrance of the rabbit hole to the frontier of crypto faster than I've ever seen anyone go before. And now John is at the point of making new definitions and new contributions to the frontier of crypto knowledge. And he thinks that he's got something to teach us about our beloved ETH. And so, John, you recently put out an article titled Ether is not ultrasound money part one.

02:39
David

Subtitled Why You're Wrong About Blockchain Profitability.

02:43
David

So first, John,

02:45
David

how dare you?

02:47
David

Second, what is the high-level argument that you're putting forth in this piece? Can you kind of give us a roadmap of your arguments?

02:54
Jon Charbonneau

Sure. Uh so as a good level set, I love the starting place that you guys have uh used for like the triple point asset. I reused that in here. I definitely agree with that.

03:03
Jon Charbonneau

Um so the simple idea being like something like ETH is this weird new mix of it's capital asset, like stocks and bonds,

03:10
Jon Charbonneau

consumable, transformable asset, like commodities,

03:14
Jon Charbonneau

where people analogize either Ethereum or similarly other blockchains and protocols to a company.

03:21
Jon Charbonneau

Um, so I think that is uh I we probably all agree. I think the company kind of analogy is

03:27
Jon Charbonneau

almost entirely accurate for a lot of stuff like DAOs, which have like a very simple model of, you know, we run this protocol, we take a certain amount of fees, you know, a DCF is like that kind of framework is a very accurate way of effectively full of assessments.

03:40
Jon Charbonneau

Discounted cash flow.

03:41
Jon Charbonneau

Yes, discounted cash flows of like that's a pretty sufficient way to measure those things.

03:45
Jon Charbonneau

Um

03:47
Jon Charbonneau

I would say for something like Ethereum, that is a helpful component of looking at it and understanding it, valuing it.

03:53
Jon Charbonneau

But I think we would all agree that's only part of

03:56
Jon Charbonneau

it. So my disagreement has been over that portion of when you do analogize either Ethereum or something else to a company.

04:03
Jon Charbonneau

The notion of profitability that most people have, I think, is incorrect.

04:09
Jon Charbonneau

Where most people would basically generally say

04:12
Jon Charbonneau

certainly it's the ultrasound money type argument of if you're looking at the profit of this, you know,

04:19
Jon Charbonneau

decentralized company, you have income either in the form of fees, or some people only consider burn.

04:25
Jon Charbonneau

Um, as effectively the income and then the cost, the expenses to this company or the issuance that it puts out, like to its validators as block rewards.

04:34
Jon Charbonneau

Um, so that's the generally understood. And then to be sustainable, you know, it's a business, you need to be profitable. So eventually you need to get to a point where, you know, you're not net inflationary. So you're offsetting whatever issuance you have such that, you know, you're a profitable, sustainable business.

04:48
Jon Charbonneau

Um, I just that's the portion of everything that I disagree with.

04:52
Jon Charbonneau

Um, so on the income side, I think everything is effectively revenue that comes from external to the protocol actors.

04:59
Jon Charbonneau

So any form of fees, whether they are burned or not,

05:02
Jon Charbonneau

um, and any other forms of MEV that accrue to validators, I consider all of that revenue. Like that is all being paid by outside actors who are

05:10
Jon Charbonneau

not um accruing to the who the all of that is accruing to token holders and um to stakers

05:16
Jon Charbonneau

in one form or another.

05:18
Jon Charbonneau

However, you want to distribute it between stakers and token holders. And then on the cost side, I disagree that the issuance is an explicit cost in like if you're analogizing it to a company.

05:29
Jon Charbonneau

It's rather different. And I think the simplest example to understand it

05:35
Jon Charbonneau

is let's imagine I have a chain and I own all of the tokens, I have all of them staked.

05:40
Jon Charbonneau

Over the course of the year, people are paying transaction fees.

05:44
Jon Charbonneau

So for simplicity, I'll say that in my chain, I charge transaction fees in USDC. So that's what you use as the gas token or anything else that you want to pay with. So over the course of the year, I take in a million dollars in USDC as revenue from transaction fees because I'm the only one who's staking all that goes to me.

06:03
Jon Charbonneau

Because I am the only person who staked and I have 100% of the token staked,

06:07
Jon Charbonneau

whether the issuance is 0% or 1% or 10% of my token, it doesn't actually make any difference to me. It's not tokens

06:15
Jon Charbonneau

versus if I played out that same year, made a million dollars and I issued a bunch of tokens.

06:20
Jon Charbonneau

The only difference is from the beginning of the year to the end of the year is that

06:23
Jon Charbonneau

there are more tokens in the second scenario that exist, but the market cap of the asset should effectively be the same. It's effectively acted as a stock split. You diluted the shares, but I still own the shares. So the price per token should go down, but the market cap should be unchanged.

06:37
Jon Charbonneau

So effectively, my profitability as that operator at the end of the year is very simple as I made a million dollars in USTC.

06:43
Jon Charbonneau

And then what did it cost me on the physical cost side to like literally run the boxes?

06:48
Jon Charbonneau

So, what did I have to pay in hardware costs, compute costs, et cetera, to like actually run that network? That's the profitability that I'm going to make.

06:55
Jon Charbonneau

And in this case, I am the network because I own all the tokens and I have all of them staked.

06:59
Jon Charbonneau

So that's an important distinction. And it is, I would note, very different also than the issuance in something like proof of work,

07:06
Jon Charbonneau

or a bit similarly for like a DeFi protocol that pays out, say, token incentives to LPs.

07:13
Jon Charbonneau

In the corporate context, what that looks much more like

07:16
Jon Charbonneau

is effectively stock based compensation, where you are paying out to employees.

07:21
Jon Charbonneau

And those additional shares that you're giving out are not going to existing shareholders. So you are forcibly diluting all of them and you are effectively just paying that out as a non cash expense, like via gap accounting. So that is very different. And that was a very big change when Ethereum moved to proof of stake that I think people actually like underappreciate,

07:40
Jon Charbonneau

which is an interesting part of this, is while I have

07:44
Jon Charbonneau

Probably upset a lot of ETH people with the title. The core of my argument is actually something like ETH is significantly more profitable than I think most people have been saying it is by that traditional framework.

07:57
Jon Charbonneau

Because I consider all of it revenue and I don't consider that issuance to be like an explicit cost for something that is analogized to a company in this scenario.

08:05
Jon Charbonneau

See ETH Bulls, uh, John tricked you right there. You you thought you were getting uh, you know, somebody who is um anti-ETH uh profit value accrual and r and really he's actually more bullish than than we are, and and than we should be. Um, John, you said a lot there, and I think that was like um you you encapsulated kind of the core of the post and the core of the argument. But I think probably some people um listening to this and watching this might be like, whoa, like they feel like they just we just waited all the way down into the deep end of the pool, 400 level content. I want to like go through this a bit more methodically and kind of break this down. So even for people that um

08:41
Jon Charbonneau

Maybe start at the beginning, okay? The triple point asset thesis. This is an idea that I think um we played some hand in helping to popularize. Actually we kind of

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