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Bitcoin's slide is erasing weeks of gains. Meanwhile, the total crypto market cap faces its largest string of declines since spot BTC ETF approval proved to be a sell the news event. Will bulls come to the rescue, or is there more downside to come?
Outflows from the 
Grayscale 
Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) are speeding. Yesterday, they amounted to $642.5M, surpassing the prior record of $640.5M set on January 22, causing a net outflow from all BTC spot ETFs of $154.4B.
After yesterday’s performance, GBTC has now experienced the most outflows of any ETF since the March 2009 stock market lows set in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, a dismal performance record Grayscale now hopes to reverse by promising to lower its exorbitantly high fees over time.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust w/ most outflows of *any* ETF since March 2009 stock market low...
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) March 19, 2024
Only took 2 months.
via @Todd_Sohn pic.twitter.com/vX6dtcd6sR
The sell pressure from these flows was reflected in crypto prices yesterday, with Bitcoin experiencing a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 9% off the Monday opening of US stock markets.
Alongside the dip in prices has come liquidations.
A total of $635M in leveraged trades were forcibly closed over the past 24 hours, with 80% of them coming from the long end, allowing funding rates across the board to reset to normalcy and providing a supportive environment for traders looking to take new longs.
Despite the dip down in BTC, new hopes for institutional crypto adoption are emerging after a $1.4T Japanese state pension fund – the world’s largest – announced that it is seeking information on Bitcoin as it looks to diversify its portfolio.
BREAKING: The world's biggest pension fund, Japan's $1.4 Trillion Government Pension Investment fund, is looking into buying #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/45Fc1ipHXs
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) March 19, 2024
Markets are demonstrating strong risk-on sentiment, making it clear that we are in a bull market. However, it should be noted that a standard bull market correction of 30% would send BTC as low as $51k, providing room for further downside.
Tomorrow’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision could be a major volatility catalyst for markets, as recent hot inflation prints could push the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) to adopt a more hawkish policy stance than in past months. This shift would delay market participants’ expectations for rate cuts and pour water on a risk rally that has continued uninterrupted since last October.
The likelihood of a rate reduction this month has plummeted to a mere 1%, a drastic decrease from the 90% probability of beginning in March that markets had priced in at last year's end.
We are now 24 hours out from the long anticipated March Fed meeting.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 19, 2024
Odds of an interest rate cut at this meeting are down to just 1%.
3 months ago, markets saw a 90% chance that interest rate cuts would begin this month.
Odds of a rate cut at the May 2024 Fed meeting are down… pic.twitter.com/UOC9AJyxcd
