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📺 ROLLUP: 1st Week of 2022
January 7, 2022
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Transcript
uh man what would it be like if society like totally broke down right and we lost electricity lost internet like how long could i last right and that in that sort of a situation the truth is like not very damn long good morning bankless nation david what time is it oh ryan it's the friday weekly roll-up time where we roll up the entire week in crypto which is always an ambitious endeavor yet we do it anyways nonetheless because it's always the best show of the week at least in my opinion
happy uh happy new year man this is our first show of 2022. how are you feeling about this year so far god already a very bumpy wild week for the first week of 2022. uh i'm kind of uh kind of thinking that 2022 is going to be way crazier uh and i think we're yeah crazier all around and yeah yeah i i started it started off that way okay like market volatility by the way man like my power was off for like two days
okay 48 hours you're right uh the ai was down here yeah see i totally down man everything about me was down and um yeah so there was that and then yesterday so i um my internet turned off again midday i ran downstairs to go check my router i slipped and fell on my staircase and like fell straight on my back got the wind knocked out of me and then i remember just like in between my breasts being like oh my god is this what 20 22 is gonna be like flat on my back not able to breathe yeah
gosh yeah it has felt like that in so many different respects yeah or maybe this is the worst week of 2022 and it's all up only only from here i'm only i don't know we'll see but guys we are going to get into it a few things on the agenda for today we're going to talk about the fed meeting okay jerome powell strikes again this time it's hitting crypto markets we'll talk about that that is the reason the markets are down in the drums all uh dumps also open c lots of stuff to talk about an open c a 13 billion evaluation but like one token right
uh also there's some drama about open c maybe freezing nfts we're gonna dig into that and openc also had a comeback month in december we'll talk about that a little bit too so tons of stuff to discuss today on the roll-up uh david before we get in we gotta talk a little bit about our friends at on juno they wanted us to get the word out about these magical checking accounts these checking accounts for crypto natives you got to check this out so um david i i know you're like me right it's like you have your coinbase
accounts you have your ethereum address you do all your bankless things but you still got your old-fashioned wells fargo account you got to pay and you have to we're not fully bank-less right and so you have to maintain a traditional bank account if you want to do things in the in the real world but the problem with your traditional bank account is it sucks it sucks in particular for crypto natives like there's no way in wells fargo for me to purchase uh ethereum or there's no way for me to receive a paycheck in bitcoin or eth
or get any yield at all yeah it's totally disconnected so on juno is this cool i guess neo bank that is very much connected to the crypto world it's a bank account a checking account for crypto natives and there's lots of cool things you can do with it um the first is you could start to receive your paychecks in crypto which that's a huge unlock so you can earn paycheck with your paycheck in crypto you can also save get four percent yields using usdc you
can also invest you can buy crypto at zero fees this is my account i recently created one uh and look i mean it has a uh a portfolio tab here you can check out you also get a card with this too like a virtual card with a debit card so it's like this crypto native bank account that um straddles both worlds i think it's going to be a nice hybrid solution for me moving forward there's some good news too for bankless listeners i think there's a 50 um incentive to open up an onjuno
account you want to talk about that david yeah 50 if you use the code bank list to sign up with on juno in your preferred crypto asset and overall like the ui on this on this uh on juno is just exactly the ui i wish i had with my wells fargo account yeah uh so pretty awesome guys go create that account you guys can get started there's a link in the show notes to that and remember to use the code bank list to get that 50 off also david another psa the ethereum research team is doing an ama on reddit tomorrow i love those
amas man there's so much learning that's that's dropped uh where's that gonna be is there a link in the show notes or something yeah that'll uh people have to go to the r ethereum subreddit in order to get that done uh there's not a link yet i do not believe um but it is happening at p.m utc time which i believe is i think it's probably just going to be going on all day uh today the day of uh the listeners listening to this if you are listening to this on friday but yeah this will be in the r ethereum reddit um i believe people are already
asking questions so in our ethereum yeah there is already a link and we will we will have a link in the show notes uh people already are asking questions there uh so i will probably also pick out some of these responses questions and responses uh and cover some of the best ones in the roll up next week probably um but if you want to get your question asked or just read all of them go ahead and go to the link in the show notes to check out the ama all right let's get to markets david bitcoin bitcoin time the tumble the sad music is playing bitcoin falls below 43k it's even lower at the time of recording
leads to 800 million in crypto liquidations this is the headline what's going on in bitcoin world yeah we had one of those big oof candles where we uh fell from the high high price of 46 000 down to 42 and a half thousand dollars currently at 43 000 overall down 7.5 percent on the week uh kind of uh i'm not a trader we're not traders here but there was a trend line that bitcoin broke through you can see it here on the youtube here as well uh we were really hoping to not break below forty six thousand dollars yet we did it anyways
um so here we are uh traders are fearful uh state of fear in the crypto markets right now flat on your back in 2022 and how about eve uh what's going on with eath prices looks like it went the way of bitcoin as well yeah same same deal started the week at 3 800 it fell down to the low price of three thousand three hundred and thirty dollars has currently climbed and reclaimed three thousand four hundred dollars but overall down seven percent on the week so an oof week in the crypto markets well let's go through a few other metrics and let's just talk about
what that what what this means after that but uh let's take a look at the ratio so the eath the bitcoin ratio what's that looking like right now yeah last week uh it started the week at point zero eight we are at point zero seven nine so fell down below that point zero eight meme line um nothing really much to report there oh we're also looking okay still looking i'm pretty good not not we'll have to monitor it how about the bed index so that's a a third defy a third uh bitcoin and a third eth what are we looking at on the week started the week at 144 dollars currently at a hundred and twenty seven
dollars down ten percent ten point five percent on the week uh which means that the dpi tokens took an even bigger hit than bitcoin and ether okay so what's going on man what's happening in 2022 should we talk about um some of the fed minutes because i think this is you know you can't always attribute uh crypto market movements or even general marketing you usually cannot do stories you usually cannot but in this case i think you definitely can so jerome powell and the fed had a
meeting they talked about shrinking the balance sheet they talked about getting a bit more hawkish including readering that they intended to raise the rates this year i think the shrinking the balance sheet statement was the the one that caught the market most off guard and stocks tumbled crypto tumbled along with it all the risk-on assets really went down as a result of this do you think this was the primary catalyst for the uh the wreckage that we saw over the last couple days i think the timing is pretty hard to ignore uh it happened right at the
release of the minutes it happened at the same time as traditional equities markets also took a tumble so this happened across the board this was correlated in all assets ever and so just because of the nature of the money printer all assets are kind of risk on assets at this moment and so when the fed says they're going to be raising interest rates all assets take a tumble so that's that's uh i think it's a pretty clear connection there are other um possible explanations we're gonna get into this later in the show uh
kazakhstan had a massive power outage which caused bitcoin to lose i think 13 of its hash power which is pretty significant uh and that can stoke some selling pressure from miners if 13 of hash power disappears uh miners can go risk off themselves and that can also create uh downward pressures for the whole rest of the market if if bitcoin gets sold off in mass so it could could be other things as well but i think this one is definitely the the hawkishness from the fed the the possibility of raising interest rates beyond what the market expected has got to be got to be in the lead for the
biggest um reason why the markets took the tumble that they did it's interesting i think this is going to be a story to track all year david so talk about a theme of 2022 it's going to be what is the fed doing right it's like last year what were they doing they were continuing to print money it was kind of stasis but this year there's some inflation pressures the type of inflation the fed cares about is cpi that's what everyone notices that's what politicians notice and it's been seven percent here recently uh in the u.s it's like five percent in in uh the euro the
ecb um i i read recently so it's like inflation fears are causing central bankers to take a more hawkish stance but they can only like they can only do that uh so much because when the markets tumble like this in this way that's also bad for the optics and you know also kind of um against the the principles that the fed has of making sure that the the economy continues to function so it's kind of a rock and a hard place and i think
that'll be a major theme for 2022 is like how does the fed navigate this how do they you string that line through the eye of the needle 100 100 it's going to be well yeah you're totally right watching them nav and like thread that needle is going to be it's probably i i kind of think it's an impossible needle to thread and so seeing how they do it is always going to be interesting no matter what because it kind of maybe can't be done uh so the fallout from that is going to be interesting absolutely all right let's talk about this uh something that was up and
everything else was down is metamask users active users been up so 21 million monthly active users since april and what's interesting about this from lee oh lee jin so she's coming on the podcast as well we're going to talk about a number of things we could bring this up if you compare this to monthly active users of facebook it's close to one percent it's point it's 0.7 percent right now metamask has versus facebook it's about six percent of twitter's monthly active users and it's about the
rate of the number of internet users in 1996. feels about right what year is crypto in maybe it's 1996. well hang on we gotta control for population inflation so it's actually gotta be like 94.93 okay 94.93 and this is like monthly active users is only one measure of course of the usage of this thing i i think because this is a an internet of value also market cap and and the value and you know the fact that we're at two trillion dollars is another
fantastic measure of this whole thing but what do you make of this monthly active users on metamask monthly active metamask is a it's a great signal because everyone uses metamask except for the solana ecosystem even uh if you're getting onboarded into polygon if you're getting onboarded to avalanche you're using metamask uh pick your l2 you're using metamask uh and so it's a pretty high signal of just very general rate of adoption uh granted like i have two computers and so i have metamask on there twice i also have metamask on my phone do i count as three probably but
it's directionally always a pretty good signal it's kind of like the uh the netscape of the internet if you will that's that's really what metamask is in a lot of ways let's talk about this too david there's this fantastic report from electric capital and they do this every year i feel like it gets better every year more detailed in a lot of ways and what they try to do is they go through the developer metrics from each of the ecosystems and track that over time and so there are a few highlights from this that maybe we want
to get into i'll start with the first one that i saw and that is this web 3 developers are at all-time highs right now okay 18 400 developers that's up it's almost double from the start of 2021 so we kind of doubled the amount of developers in the web 3 in 2021 which is pretty crazy um david i want you to talk about this one because this is super interesting why do the developers come in here is it like
because they're excited why is it well i think the the line of show me the incentives and i'll show you the outcome is really true here uh when price goes up when number goes up it it tracks everything everything always gets attracted to capital and that includes developers and so when price goes up developers also goes up the interesting thing here is that and this is why we always know in crypto crypto's a one-way street people don't come into crypto and then they're like nah i'm gonna leave now when you come into crypto you tend
to stay and so when prices go down developers stay flat and so like bad prices means that we just don't get any new developers we don't lose any developers we just don't get any new ones and so when price goes up we get new developers when price goes down we don't lose any developers uh and so it's this is kind of why crypto is always a waiting game like you can zoom in on the markets and be like oh it's up five percent oh it's up down percent down five percent but like it's just awaiting it you can just wait out the markets until the developers build out
crypto into the vision of the future that we have for it and then prices will be up like it's just how it works you can just wait it out the developers aren't going anywhere yeah i totally agree and it's really interesting how that floor gets painted at like the peak of the last cycle becomes kind of the floor for for the next cycle um you know chris dixon in our podcast with him he's like ah i don't pay attention to prices so much i'm sure he does a little bit but he's like i pay attention to the talent inflows in the space and that's what i track this is an interesting way to track that it's interesting uh too if you chart it by ecosystem as well so you
can compare some of the layer one ecosystems ethereum polka dot cosmos solana bitcoin those are the five largest ethereum really far in a way in the lead in terms of its mindshare and developer account this is not just protocol development but this is the entire ecosystem now keep in mind development application layer two keep in mind these metrics aren't like full proof so they're tracking github they're tracking open source open source projects primarily uh you know they're directionally correct but the data
doesn't always like reflect the the entire truth here but ethereum definitely cemented in the number one slot number two is actually polka dot according to this which i found surprising then you've got um bitcoin cosmos and and solana right behind it here's another graph of the of the same thing this is if you compare the developer ecosystems from day zero and you do sort of an apples to apples comparison of of where they are and you kind of track the numbers here um what are some of your takeaways from this yeah actually if you
go up to the very first graph i really want to pay attention to um especially on graphs like this uh the very first graph the area under the curve is really really important uh and so like we we have this blue line here of all of the developers and it just now just recently hit new highs right but it's so recent it's it's it's the area under the code this is extremely rough science it's the area under the curve that is the rate of a rate of development because these so many new web3 developers just came in they
haven't built anything yet but now that this area under the curve is so large that every single day means so much more in terms of development than it did in july of 2017 for example i mean look at look at how much area under the curve there is in july of 2017 versus how much area there is under the curve in july of 2021. we are making like as an industry we are developing like three to four times faster than we were in july of 2017 and that's just what happens when developers come into the ecosystem uh and so while there's a lot of developers
here right now they just onboarded them a lot of them are just you know experiencing their first apps like building their first stuff uh and so it's gonna take six months for that the area under the curve here to actually build out in order to into the thing where we actually get a bunch of new cool new stuff but the point is we are accelerating uh development here uh which is just super bullish totally it's all happening faster it's interesting here again this is a this is chart ethereum of course uh far in the lead with um 4 000 monthly active
developers um you see kind of bitcoin down at the bottom and bitcoin just hasn't really grown that much and this sort of makes sense for the type in developer account that sort of makes sense for the type of network that that bitcoin is um but some of these other networks are like growing just as fast if not faster than ethereum in its early days and i think some of them benefit from the infrastructure that ethereum has really built out already so that's interesting to see as well um yeah let's talk about this too
david so uh nft market it feels like nfts are back all right so after a lull maybe for the last couple of months kind of a minor bear market-ish uh corrections signs of life yeah you're showing some signs of life and this doesn't necessarily mean they'll return to all-time highs or not but what do you think this means yeah well we had open c just you know an nft volume at large just grew so fast so quickly we would it's totally expected to see a retracement and that's what we saw we saw about four months of
decreasing volumes uh but december and also the first week of 2022 saw a resurgence in volume away from the decreasing downtrend that we saw in the last four or five months so board 8 yacht clubs have really performed well both in terms of floor price and also volume and also just like celebrity adoption so many celebrities have board apes now uh and then there were some other winners as well doodles are on the mind uh x copies have gotten a ton of volume so yeah there's always a bull market
somewhere uh it's just a matter of finding out where it is this is uh some nft stats for 2021 just a year in review this is put out by um andrew chang i believe in the one confirmation team uh andrew chan that is um some interesting stats of note this is from mediversal newsletter ethereum is still king so 90 plus of all nft volume was on ethereum this year um and that includes also kind of axi
infinity its ecosystem that as a side chain there were total market cap of nfts past 31 billion in 2021. 31 billion uh which is crazy but it's still only 100 uh just adding up all the nft i guess um i yeah some of them you know maybe on openc i'm not sure you could dig into the data here but it's interesting this is only 1.3 of crypto's total market cap right so
remember all of the predictions that nfts were eventually going to be larger than crypto if that's the case they're a long way to go yeah there's a lot of upside here if that's the case um active nft users on ethereum hit 2 million it's pretty crazy trading volume on nfts past 20 billion in 2021 some pretty big stats here and then it goes through different um segments of the nft market like you know crypto art gaming marketplaces collectibles
uh and then some highlights and other things uh yeah what are your what are your thoughts on the year that of 2021 that nfts had do you think we're going to repeat something like that this year yeah i'm reminded of a tweet thread that kane warwick put out forever ago about the difference between technologies that fundamentally change the world but then are just not very loud technologies and i think that's defy uh very very just paradigm shift in what it means to do finance uh nfc is also a paradigm shift but when it's only a 32 billion dollar
market cap versus how much exposure and like social and cultural uh acknowledgement there are around punching above its weight class it's it's it's it's making bigger cultural impact than defy is at like one one thousand one one thousands of the market cap like absolutely insane uh and it kind of just shows like how small the nft industry actually is thirty one two billion dollars is is i mean it's a lot of more money than i have certainly but like it's not a lot of money in the grand scheme of things
yeah it's it's still small so i i guess one takeaways nfts are early but what do you think though do you think they're gonna have a crazy year in 2022 oh i think they have to yeah i mean crazy such an open word uh do you do i think prices are going to go up in 2022 uh for some uh and i i i think 2022 will be another crazy year in the world of nfts and it's going to be crazy in a way that we can't expect right now that's it that's the key it was crazy in 2021 in a way we couldn't expect and it's going to be crazy in 2022 in a way we can't expect either so i expect to be
surprised uh and that is crypto for you there's also another almost companion report it's a separate report but i call it companion report chain analysis put this nft report together and it took a different lens on things it was basically like um who's winning who won in 2021 so of that 30 billion or so in value who made the money a few takeaways at least uh from from my mind were openc data actually suggests it's really difficult to achieve outsized returns without
being whitelisted on openc so you kind of had to be on openc in order to get these returns another takeaway was if you want to flip nfts don't buy the cheap stuff buy the blue chips which is interesting the top 500 nft collections account for 94 of all the flips the top 100 accounts for 50 of the flips on openc so if you're kind of scouring the the bottom tier of the market just buying the cheap stuff that's actually not the way according to this report that you're making real
money on nfts and most people next lose this next chart i think is is really really insightful and this is everything everyone should listen up about this uh this tweet says you're probably not making money flipping nfts 20 of user addresses on openc account for 80 of a secondary nft sales well just five percent of all addresses account for eighty percent of profits made on secondary sales uh and so yeah yeah like this is this reminds me of uh hazu made this comment i think in the podcast a
while ago where uh there was this uh big big boom in online poker for a while yeah and everyone everyone and their mother started playing online poker and then the really really good poker players just milked all the noobs for all of their money and then the and they made a living on it they made a living on it they got extremely wealthy and then all of the you know the retail poker players put their tail between their legs and went elsewhere and did something else with their lives because they got worked and then the world of online poker just hit like a quote-unquote bear market because there
weren't any players left because all the good ones took all the money from the bad ones uh i i definitely kind of think that's what's going on with nft flipping and that's definitely why the best advice you can ever get about nfts is you only buy something that you like rather than trying to get rich on it uh because like if you're trying to flip nfts that's a like you got to know what you're doing uh and one of these uh one of these charts illustrates that uh in order to uh optimized for the best flipping potential it says the tweet a couple tweets down says uh arguably the
most important stat in the entire report for nft flippers is that the top five percent of nft flippers on average is paying 2.2 eth more for their nft so they're not playing four floor nfts they are sifting through trying to find the rare ones doing their homework doing their due diligence uh and then flipping that and so they're paying premium they're paying the premium they're targeting their their selections they're they're doing their homework uh and if you're just buying a floor hoping to flip it like you might get you might get worked you might get worked you might get worked i mean i think the takeaway
here and by the way this in my opinion this goes for all trading not just nft trading it's 95 of you listening to this should not be trading yes you're you're trading and flipping exactly 95 of you probably shouldn't be doing that and that goes for nfts too according to the stats um guys we will be right back with some of the releases and raises and the rest of the roll-ups but before we do we want to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible arbitrary is an ethereum scaling solution that's going to completely change how we use defy and nfts over 250
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your favorite apps are already live with many more coming over soon you can find these apps at portal.arbitrum.one and you can bridge your assets over to arbitram using bridge.arbitrum.io in order to experience defy and nfts the way it was always meant to be fast cheap and friction free when you shop for plane tickets you probably use kayak expedia or google to compare ticket prices so why would you limit yourself to just one exchange when you trade crypto when you make your trades you want to make sure you're getting the best possible price on your trade and that's why you should be using matcha matcha has smart order routing
that splits your trade across all the various liquidity sources in ethereum and is also operational on polygon avalanche finance smart chain and other chains trading on matcha is super easy because it pools the liquidity for me in a single easy to use platform and allows me to make limit on chain orders so you can set and forget your d5 trades and they will go through automatically while you're away so when you're making a trade head over to matcha.xyz bankless and connect your wallet to start getting the best prices and most liquidity when you trade your crypto assets bank list is proud to be sponsored by
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your idea is you can apply it for a unique grant at uniswap grants.org and help steer uniswap in the direction that you think it should go thank you uniswap for sponsoring bankless all right guys we are back with the releases of the week the first is this maybe some alpha here from zapper what are we looking at yeah zapper is uh introducing what looks like notifications for nfts uh so if you do decide to flip nfts you might want to use zapper because you can get notified about when your friends buy nft stuff uh you can actually see my profile picture will come up there there i am uh my
notification is that i bought a pouchy penguin uh there's a bunch of drama with the penguins right now i see me in this what did i do yeah what did we do uh no it's not real it's just it's all the crypto twitter are they saying i did yeah what what nft did you oh i received a poe oh you've received a bankless doubt lovely yeah so you can just uh follow get push notifications for what you and your friends are up to with regards to nfts through zapper kind of what did you do kind of cool i bought a pudgy penguin allegedly oh you bought a punch of paint and that's your patchwagon all right cool yeah that's great i love that functionality um it's
more functionality from ave too looks like they're building a mobile wallet that coming from stani is the tweet what do you think their mobile wallet might contain david well gotta contain borrowing and lending it's also gotta be on layer two so hint more on this later in the show uh because there's no way that people are gonna be like the only people that are willing to pay uh l1 gas prices are also going to be the desktop power users so any mobile wallet i think it's got to be a l2 wallet so arjun just deployed on zk sync right
um ave you think they'll do zk sync do you think they'll do an optimistic roll up do you think they'll do starkware or something like this well i think we have an announcement later in the show ryan to talk about so we will oh really then yeah how do you remember okay we'll get to that soon guys to be continued in the back after the show uh let's talk about this too this is big release bitco they're now supporting index co-op cool assets very cool this is the mvi data the bed index as well in bitco bitco of course is a qualified
custodian so it's kind of like fire blocks this is where the institutions store their money so this is a gateway for institutions to buy index co-op products and of course these are all indices of other assets kind of think of them as defies answer to etfs really cool that bitco is doing this now and that was just announced you can learn more with the link in the show notes any thoughts on that big d5 mullet yeah centralized custody provider in the front a bunch of d5 tokens from a d5 uh dow in the back
pretty cool big greasy d5 that's what we got going on multi-dimensional eip1559 that's the title of this eth research post david i haven't gone through this yet but you have what can you tell us about this yeah this is a research post out of vitalik buterin himself talking about how we can use an eip1559 type mechanism to control for other network resources mainly how we compute gas uh so right now there are hard-coded values for all the different