ROLLUP: Bull Market Week 2 | Blackrock ETH ETF | WSJ vs Crypto

Grab your coffee. It's the weekly roll-up. David, what are we talking about?

The bull market continues. Week two of the crypto bull market. What is pumping and why? This new and improved market section in the weekly roll-up where we have the movers of the week will unpack which tokens are moving and why. And sometimes at some point in the market, you'll have to be reminded that sometimes they're just gonna move and there's not gonna be a why. But there's perhaps a why this week. And also another big win for layer twos on Ethereum. Another centralized exchange is launching another layer two. It's basically table stakes for exchanges to have a layer two these days. What else is going on, Ryan?

Uh, first of all, I'm glad you you said centralized exchange because I can't stand like sex just doesn't work for me.

Another sex.

Yeah.

Another layer two.

It just still doesn't work for me. Uh also, last week it was speculation, but this week's it's official. BlackRock has officially filed their ETH ETF. And not to be outdone, the XRP community tried to meme their own ETF application from BlackRock into existence. It didn't work out well. And finally, the base roll up is introducing on chain perks for people who identify themselves. And also, we have some identity protection, a new privacy protocol coming to Ethereum that we're going to talk about. All right, David, what are we covering today? Let's talk about the markets first. Bitcoin, what's the price in the week?

Bitcoin and ETH, actually relatively flat on the week. A lot of the action was further down in the market cap stack. So Bitcoin started the week at 36,300. It's actually falling as we are recording this. Uh yeah, sad. Down 1%. So 36,000 uh flat is where we are with Bitcoin. Down 1% on the week.

Okay, but maintaining those uh relatively high levels, which feels pretty good. Uh tell me about this, the GPDC discount and premium to nav. What are we looking at?

Yeah, so as markets are heating up, I'm going to just be looking at the grayscale discounts or premiums, mostly discounts, uh, because it's just a sense, it's a kind of a sentiment indicator. It's also an indicator of outside money coming into crypto. And they're using grayscale, an inferior product, not nothing against grayscale, but simply an inferior product to a spot uh ETF, which we are going to be getting soon. Uh, and we are watching the GBTC and ETH discounts approach par, where they ought to be. Uh, they were negative prior during the bear market, because everyone outside who's getting access to crypto via these mechanisms, like, I don't want crypto, sell. Um, now people are buying. Uh, so the grayscale GBTC discount has gone from like negative 40% back in July to where it is now, what we are looking at, and the punchline I'm trying to finally get to, which is negative 13%. So we are negative 13% on the grayscale discount, coming up to zero. We want it to be zero. When this has hits zero, all outside interesting uh capital that's interested in buying Bitcoin.

would be motivated to not buy it through this uh venue, but actually would just buy spa. And

So this is kind of absorbing actually like true spot market buy pressure because people are just buying the grayscale Bitcoin and Ether trusts first.

But we're getting close. I mean it was negative like 50%. Now it's negative uh 13%. Uh David, do you know with this Bitcoin price ride, who is sitting on one billion dollars worth of profits? Whose trade finally paid off? Can you give me a guess here?

Who just happens to have who do you think happens so have so much Bitcoin that going up to $36,000 means that they have a billion dollars of paper gains? Who could that be? Who is that? It's it's MicroStrategy.

Currently, they have $5.7 billion of Bitcoin with a cost basis of $4.6 billion. So congratulations, Michael Sailor. You didn't really time your buys in the best possible pot places in the market.

He was dollar cost averaging in, David.

Like Ryan it was gonna work out and it finally has.

I want to say we have consistently said that that this is actually a fantastic buy. But uh David, I don't know if you saw this clip, okay? What kind of uh crazy person would actually be buying Bitcoin during all of these dips? Let me give you a flavor for Michael Saylor. This is him in a recent podcast, and I just love this clip. I want you to see it.

But when you go all in on something, I would say that does take conviction. Now your conviction might be

What chairs are you sitting on right now?

one.

Are you all in on the chair?

I am all in on the chair.

Like, like the the point really is you put on one pair of glasses, you've got one pair of

airpods right now, you're looking at me through one screen,

you're using one microphone. That's a one microphone. Like you trust it?

Is that conviction?

Seems kind of scary. Why don't you diversify? Why don't you use 10 microphones? The point really is things in your life do you drive in 10 cars at the same time or one car at one time?

Do you drive down one street? Aren't you afraid that you're driving down one street?

Do you take a different way?

You know?

He's like, I don't know how to respond to this.

Oh my god, Michael Saylor never changed. That is the guy who has been purchasing this entire time. Alright? That's what you call some conviction.

Analysis right there. I actually have two pairs of AirPods, Ryan. Um yeah, fun fact. Yeah. I'm not an AirPod Maximalist.

David, does he feel the way about uh Bitcoin that you feel about Ether?

I don't think so. I I th I think it's directionally the same, but he feels something. I'm not feeling what Michael Saylor's feeling.

I don't think I've ever felt that way about maybe anything, uh, the way Michael Saylor feels about Bitcoin. Those are some conviction purchases, and that's what gets you a billion in profits, my friend. Yeah. Okay, that's Bitcoin's story. Tell me about the ETH price. We're looking at the Kraken Pro charts. What is ETH doing on the week?

Well, it's going down from the last time I looked at it, so that's sad. We started the week at $2,016. I wrote down to where we ended up at $19.73, but we're actually looking at your screen, it's $1960. So down 2%. So currently falling.

We started this episode and we called the bull and now I'm I'm feeling below 2K on this. This is what markets

The bull market can do to you.

they go back down? That's not fair. Uh you won't you wanted to show us the ETH discount though?

ETHE discount again. It used to be almost at negative 60 back in July. So negative 60%. So like if you bought one, if you put in $100 into the ETHE discount back in July, when it's it when it has at negative 60, you actually got what's the math here? Like 1.6-ish.

An extra 60%. Yeah.

One over amount on your dollars at par. We are not at par. We are up to negative 15. So there's been a lot of buying pressure on the ET discount, bringing up to negative 15. So that's also approaching par.

Yeah, and part of your thesis is that has to be evaporated before ETH uh really goes up.

It doesn't have to hit zero. It's just like once you are approaching like below negative 10 to zero, then this differences between grayscale and spot is like less. So like we're already starting to like it's mostly gone.

I wanna believe, David. I wanna believe. Okay, how about the ETH Bitcoin ratio?

It's flat, flatty down, flatty down.

Flatty down.

And total crypto market caps hanging in at 1.44 trillion. So still pretty up.

So slightly up on the week because a lot of price appreciation happened down the market cap stack. People are placing their chips on their the lower cap coins right now.

Remember you asked me last week about like what's the uh market cap of crypto this cycle? Where well I asked that question after last week's roll-up uh crypto Twitter, and here's what they said. The vast majority, 42% of my followers said six to ten trillion.

Okay.

Okay. And then second to that was two to five trillion.

Okay.

Which I mean, we're almost to two to four five trillion right now. Those guys aren't bullish.

Those are bears. Bears are saying two to five trillion.

Yeah, and I my answer was in the range of ten to fifteen trillion. Apparently, twenty percent think that, and and fourteen percent think over fifteen trillion. So that's the distribution, at least, uh according to my Twitter followers.

I hope

Hope we don't stop at five trillion, David.