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This week, the new CFTC Chairman and friend-of-the-pod Mike Selig made a loud and public jurisdictional claim over prediction markets by the CFTC.
“Prediction Markets aren’t new… the CFTC has regulated these markets for over two decades”
This has triggered a very loud negative response from across the country. Elizabeth Warren, Chris Christie, Senators and congressional representatives all expressed vitriol at the idea of prediction markets being regulated only at the level of the CFTC.
“Prediction Markets are rogue cowboys.” - Chris Christie
“Trump’s CFTC is trying to strip states' authority to regulate gambling within their borders and protect Americans from getting ripped off.” - Liz Warren
“Mike, I appreciate you attempting this with a straight face, but I don’t remember the CFTC having authority over the “derivative market” of LeBron James rebounds.” - Utah Governor Spencer J. Cox
“Sports bets account for 90% of the trading volumes on these platforms. Congress never intended for the CFTC to oversee what is effectively nationwide sports betting.” - Illinois Rep Sean Casten
The bulk of the criticism of Mike Selig's jurisdictional claim over prediction markets is that these platforms represent sports gambling platforms more than anything else.
It’s worth highlighting that this is uniquely a Kalshi problem – 
Polymarket volume is distributed across a wide set of categories, with politics and elections-related markets still dominant.
Dune | @datadashboardsapiRegardless, the subject matter of prediction markets is not a relevant detail in how these things get regulated. The reason why prediction markets belong under the CFTC is because...
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