203 - ETH in 2024

you guys are all bullish for different reasons like Jordy was was bullish because of layer 2os and uh Community money Anthony is bullish Because the Internet Bond and ethereum is a settlement layer Mike was bullish because ethereum has the potential to export its validator and Staker Set uh to the world and receive yield on top so there's just a lot of reasons to be bullish on eth going into 2024 especially when it's had a 2023 let let let's face it kind of a mediocre year compared to other crypto assets and so this is the question that everyone's going to have to decide for themselves

going to the next year is ethereum being squeezed between these two sides or is it actually starting to push its competitors uh to the margins by being a bit more more more generalized welcome to bankless where we explore the frontier of Internet money and internet Finance this is Ryan Sean Adams I'm here with David Hoffman and we're here to help you become more bullish on ether oh is that what we're doing here yeah uh David you made me change the title to Ethan 24 I wanted to call this bullish eth in 2024 but uh

same and then you came in with a bull statement and that's what this episode actually is um 2023 for ethereum wasn't great from a price perspective it was fantastic from a building perspective it felt fantastic from a fundamentals perspective but what's going on with the narrative we have three panelists today to talk about the case for eth in 2024 we've got Mikey Belo Jordi Alexander and Anthony Sano and I really like this panel David because they're not all hyper eth Maxi Bulls right right they're

like just one of them they've got yeah and they've got some sobriety with respect to ethereum and they all have different takes and you know they went back and forth and there was some debate and at the end of this episode I walked away with just like a really strong feeling of uh what the catalysts are for uh eth and ethereum going to the next year I I think that's exactly right previously we've done this show format with Anthony zazano DC investor and then like Eric Conor orus Jessi people who all I think are in agreement about the

articulation for the bull case for eth asset uh in a vacuum I would say whereas Mike and Jordy understand that ether and ethereum is not in a vacuum there are are other networks there are things to be pragmatic and realistic about and so bringing these new alternative perspectives who they're all bullish ether uh Mike and and Jordie also have other assets uh but they're also bullish ether and so these more diverse uh perspective into the uh conversation about where is ether's position in 2024

what is its role why will people buy it what does it do uh how is it positioned inside of the world of crypto I think that is something that uh I think just generally crypto is is interested in and pequ by because it feels a little lost in the last quarter straight out if you hold eth you're going to love this episode if you don't hold eth you're going to love this episode uh this is a fantastic episode for you to to evaluate this this asset in this network at the beginning of the year and that's why we brought it to you on the first of the year and of course David and I are going to be recording a debrief which is our

episode after the episode David I'm hoping that we get a little more bullish in that debrief I want to hear your takes on ethereum uh as well and uh your your takes on what we discussed uh during the episode guys we're going to get right into the conversation but before we do we want to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible including our recommended exchange for all of 2024 if you don't have account if you want to buy some eth this is the place to do it go to Kraken Kraken knows crypto kraken's been in the crypto game

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the link in the description below bankless Nation we are super excited to introduce you to our next guest this is the eth bull episode but honestly these guests are just coming as they are I don't know what their opinions are on eth except for Anthony San op I know what his opinion is but we've got a Brain Trust here and we're going to talk about ether ending 2023 and going into 2024 we've got Mike iolo he is the Relentless podcaster from blockworks how you doing Mike howdy fellas glad to be here doing well we also have Jordie Alexander he's the chief Alchemist at mantle and the

CIO of selini Jordy what's up man good I'm excited not to be the bear for once I don't I don't need to play that role yeah well the last time you were bear really bad things happened for for the networking question let's hope that doesn't happen for ethereum today uh Anthony Sano the infinite creator over at Daily guay how you doing Anthony I'm doing well I'm glad I don't have to be the bear either today are you ever the bear anthon never the bear ever I may not on ethereum of course but certain other things yes well well let's start with you then Anthony so let's talk

about ethereum um so ending 2023 if we kind of zoom out eth was up what like you know 70% from 1200 January 1st to 2200 as of today and by the way for Bank list listeners we are recording this pre- holidays okay so the date of recording is December 22nd the time by the time you will hear this this is our first episode of the year so a few things could have changed I know Anthony's been looking at the two-hour charts and uh eth is looking a bit more bullish on the 2our so things could have changed but that's the context under which we're

recording this but Anthony tell me about 2023 because Bitcoin was up 2x you know eth just like am measly 3x excuse me eth was just like am measly not even 2x uh salana of course uh 6X on the year there's been a massive narrative shift uh for myself personally I I almost compare this not to uh Ethan 2020 but almost Ethan 2019 in terms of like the narrative sentiment for ether the asset and ethereum the network being at some kind of local lows I don't want to say alltime lows because things have always

been wor like there have been times where things have been worse recap the year for 2023 how are we looking uh on the ethereum front from your perspective yeah I think 2033 has been a really interesting year it has basically challenged everyone's beliefs I think doesn't matter if you're in the ethereum camp or in the salana camp or the Bitcoin Camp I think a lot of interesting things has happened have happened across the board uh you know we had 2022 obviously we came off that and that was a pretty brutal year across the board I mean there were so many things that collapsed the crypto lending Market basically collapsed completely all of

the main characters from the last cycle are now either arrested in prison or you know still sticking around like cockroaches somehow but you know most people got kind of wiped out and then we entered 2023 uh the narratives of 2021 and and 2022 we're all kind of like old and and and defeated at that point and I think that if I'm looking back on on the whole year collectively as I said you know just before uh we've had a lot of different kind of shifts over over the whole year and we've basically challenged all our all of our leld beliefs and I think ethereum is at the

center of that right where ethereum has been and continues to be the the PowerHouse of of crypto you know so many things happen on there everyone talks about it whether you hate it or love it you know it is the thing that everyone kind of talks and thinks about but over the last few months in particular right we've had the uh you know salana recovery basically where you know the obviously the prices went up of of soul and other assets on there but also the network started getting usage and then of course the sentiment shifted greatly in I guess the ethereum community and the salana community around that but whenever I look at these things I kind

of look at the Timeline that it's happened in and why it's happened I think that uh a lot of sentiment in crypto is definitely dictated by what prices do right the narrative follows the price so if the price is going up on something suddenly it's like the best thing ever and if something else is lagging that's something these just just uh gets made fun of a lot you know memes get made of it but you made a joke before how I was looking at the 2-hour charts I mean we were recording this and eth and some L2 tokens went up over the last few hours in price and suddenly everyone's now a bull on ethereum and L2 tokens like literally within a matter of

hours so I think that if you're ingesting content from like Twitter crypto Twitter exclusively your entire mental model of this industry is going to be very warped I think and you're going to sight of of the bigger picture so I think that uh just to round out I guess what I was saying here is like if you're going to let your your I guess thoughts be dictated by that by the short term uh you're going to get Whiplash and you're going to get whipped around a lot and I don't think that's a good way to approach the industry I think that there's been a lot of good stuff that has happened over the longer term I think that there are certain ecosystems positioned for really you

know strong long-term kind of growth now uh but at the same time things get ahead of themselves so absolutely completely and and people calling ethereum dead when eth ethereum layer one and layer twos are at all-time high usage across the board uh is just utterly insane to me and just speaks to the fact that the narratives have followed the price and because eth has relatively underperformed everyone suddenly became bearish on eth which I think is more of a a trade bear kind of thing not a fundamentals bear thing and uh it just depends on who you're following and who you're listening to really yeah as we

are entering 2024 everyone assumes that there is a bull market going on and I think we're more or less all in agreement that there is a bull market happening and I just see a lot of chips being shuffled around and that's really kind of defined the activity in Q4 or so and all that conversation about how and where chips are being placed is happening on Twitter and more conversation is happening than actual chips moving because that's just the perception I would say m as we've wrap up 2023 and entered 2024 like just overall how would you characterize like

a like why why the narrative is what it is and how important the narrative actually is because the narrative I would say mostly happens on Twitter and like overall anything else you want to add to just out the placing of ethereum in in Q4 2023 yeah I I have some longer term thoughts on eth's narrative moving into 2024 but I would just say I agree with what Anthony said that the narrative tends to follow price so price is what leads and then we all infer quite a bit from that I I would also just say that

in in some senses what's playing out right now is actually relatively typical and what you might expect um from a blockchain cycle and what I mean by that is if you rewind the clocks back to 2019 2020 you know usually what happens at the end of a bear cycle going into a bull cycle is actually Bitcoin dominance tends to Peak and Bitcoin tends to lead so if you're around in 2019 and 2020 you saw this really typical pattern of uh sort of Bitcoin Bitcoin leading and then eth would kind of follow and then of course eth overtook Bitcoin by the end

of the year so people pointing towards Bitcoin outperforming eth this year as some sort of evidence that people aren't going to want eth I just think that's that's pretty misplaced and that's relatively typical and not something that folks should be worried about um I think what's throwing people off a little bit is this more idiosyncratic thing that's happening with salana frankly um which is sort of a mini defi summer I think I've seen that analogy get placed a lot and that's what I sort of think it is too there was you know salana went through a lot of hardships with the the fall of FTX it probably

fell more in price than it than it actually needed to and what you're seeing now is sort of a rebalancing which is I think confusing some folks a little bit and actually if you go back in time I was listen I I'm probably one of the only people out there that loves to go back and listen to Old podcast that I like to get a sense of what people were talking to at the time and I actually went back and listened to some old bankless podcasts that you guys were recording um in 2020 how they up well but there was a really interesting narrative that was actually going on back then which was this barbell Narrative of Bitcoin and defi uh that was happening during defi Summer

and the thought back then was well maybe you only want to hold Bitcoin for your sound money um and defi is just a high leverage play on eth so why would you hold e there's going to be this this sort of barbell strategy and time is a flat circle and I feel like that's probably the place that we're at in the current in the current day I remember when that narrative was in Vogue and that narrative Ended as soon as eth ripped from $400 to over ,000 and no one talked about that narrative anymore is this is the what what is the barbell in this narrative Mike is it Bitcoin plus salana basically yeah Bitcoin plus

salana and and to be clear I think salana has a really bright promising future I just think people tend to you know fit narratives around recent price action and I I see a bright future for all of these ecosystems and yeah ether is not Not Dead by any it's funny I'll give you a sense of that barbell take this is from udy this morning jumped into my timeline so of course I had to retweet it under under my eth is dead kind of like thread that I'm compiling here he says Bitcoin for high and luxury digital Collectibles of course because you know Wizards and salana for day-to-day degeneracy ethereum for what

mental illness question mark That's A Taste of the narrative right now Bitcoin and you got salana and then ethereum is kind of crushed in the middle it's not just it's not just dudy it's and people like Ryan selus and his predictions are like hey you know um bit ethereum is getting squeezed between Bitcoin and salana right now these these fast High TPS uh chains um the folks at vanx said something similar that seems to be the narrative what's your take on all this discussion so far Jordy yeah so uh last time I was on was

actually around the merge and I would say I was a year early um exactly what I was saying was that ethereum has a huge problem it's stuck in the middle you have Bitcoin as like the better hard money on the one side and then you have you know the cheaper chains kind of faster chains on the on the user side so if you go back literally one year ago this this was like very laid out the good news is I've kind of like taken like a much more positive tone in terms of where we are right now so going forward you you know if we look at this in a year from now um there's a couple

like very positive things that I I see about ethereum right now apart from the fact that everyone's already capitulated the whole timeline is just crying about underperformance but but but that aside so um you know we have seen this play out but ultimately like in my mind ethereum has a few like massive things going for it one it's already in that sort of top two Breakaway Zone where it is an institutional asset it will get an ETF people can like legitimately treat

it as you know a Lindy asset and that's massive that's huge like it's hard to underestimate how big that is I think what's happened to ethereum lately is we've had like Celsius selling this is apparently been going on daily like thousands of ether just kind of being sold off and I completely agree with Anthony like price in the short term just dictates that's the narrative right so it's underperforming because because there's more sell pressure but in the meantime you know soon enough you will have Bitcoin sell pressure because you

know you do have government coins and you will have ongoing salana cell pressure and here's like the key thing I want to get to ethereum is not base money in my mind but it is community money and it is the best community money because it is very widely distributed there's no VC unlocks going to be going on for the next 5 years if you look at salana March 2025 it'll that's the reason why I don't hold any salana because I'm not going to play around the March 2025 like you know a huge unlock

that's happening theum doesn't have that so as a community money and we can get into that later I think ethereum is fantastic well unpack that definition Jordy you said base money versus uh Community money why isn't eth base money and why is it more Community money yeah I mean so like me and Michael have gone into this in the past but uh so I think that you know in terms of the gold uh narrative Bitcoin is has the the storyline you know it was

what was created for this purpose it's it's just like it's like if you're a Christian you understand like the the power of like this this Immaculate Conception right um ethereum is the first smart contract money it is kind of based around activity and socialness Bitcoin if nobody uses it and it kind of sits there it still kind of works ethereum requires you know the innovation and the apps and everything else Community really needs it and being the first Community money that doesn't have unlocks um it's a new

form of money it's not something that's it's not easy to do when you have Fiat because Fiat is within a geographic Zone this is like an internet money so um it's a little bit different it's not it's not as pure as like a base money but it's very powerful as well I uh I I sometimes wonder about that definition whether um base money is just scaled up Community money and your community becomes like a whole bunch of Institutions and governments and bankers in that way but but I'm curious actually Jordy and this is a quick Sidetrack we'll get back on ethereum in a second I

I'm just curious do you think that other layer one uh tokens essentially uh currencies cryptocurrencies are contenders to become community money as well is that just a path that maybe salana is going to go down or other chains Beyond ethereum are going to go down yeah they they can um I think the characteristics this is like so early no one talks about this and I think over the next years we'll have more people talk about what is good and bad Community money in my mind the worst kind of community money is the VC money

where you just kind of get people dumping on you you know for years every month that's really bad um so that's that's a huge thing and with salana specifically you know there is a community aspect clearly like these people have gone through a lot and it's like this like Phoenix rising and so it has this this community buzz but even Anatoli himself he says if you look at his tweets recently he says I don't even want salana to be in the top 99 coins I would just want apps to be there salana is kind of can be like number 100 it's

not meant to be money he's kind of like talking long term maybe it'll it'll ACR some value but the fees are low it's meant to be used as a platform and in my mind it's sort of like a meme coin and people get very upset in the salana community when I when I say soul is a meme coin but it is it's just a better kind of version of Bonk because it's it's kind of more widely no you're making everyone mad Jordy stop no because the founder is not saying it's money so it's not on the left side and there's no there's no fee acrel you know at least for the next 10 years like

you know we'll see what kind of stuff comes up in 10 years but so it's not money right it was I was talking to Anatolia a couple earlier this week a couple days ago and it was interesting we talked about Soul as the unit of account which he just had no interest in and he was actually like inviting ether eth to be the money inside of salana not not in shining ether any above any other like unit of count it could be BTC it could be eth it could be usdc uh but he was like yeah sure just like coming it's like other things can be money on salana

and I was like that my mental model doesn't compute with that for like layer one chain so it's just such an interesting found like found like layer one philosophy of how these systems are built tried that too I remember when was going down that path um for sure so I want to um I I was eventually going to build to this as well but Jordy it's interesting because I I also sort of saw that as a potential issue for eth going into 20124 about this like trying to compete with Bitcoin and maybe to say the slightly more negative part but build to the positive uh going forward

is I I've never liked the ultrasound money meme um and the reason I never liked it is because I feel like Bitcoin won that spot um and if you talk to people in trafi it it's just very clearly like okay Bitcoin is this this sort of money thing but you know if you if you look at money or talk to people in trafi that study money you'll find that there are many different types of money that exist out there and it's actually very difficult to even Define what money is so even within the us we have this sort of definition of m0 M1 M2 and there are different types of money

for people and Banks and other sovereigns and it depends where you deposit that money is it in the US or is it if you do you deposit it outside of the US and is it a euro dollar and it gets actually like the more you look at it the more complicated it actually gets and there are different philosophies around money as well and because Bitcoin was the first essentially app chain that tried to be money um it was based off a very specific philosophy of money which is Austrian economics and we all got inculcated by this idea of sound money and that's the only way uh to protect

your wealth right and everyone in crypto has seen the chart of the dollar going down over time and 98% of your your wealth got destroyed if you held dollars well there was actually another way to protect your wealth over that time it was better than holding than gold it's called staking your dollars that's that's bonds uh right that's yield bearing money and yield bearing money actually outperforms gold bonds are a much larger asset class than gold and actually most people in trafi don't own gold because it has this massive mental hang-up with people that it's not productive right if you if you if you're

a gold bug and you've tried to talk to people about getting gold in their portfolio you've heard this over and over it's not a productive asset those are the people that keep saying gold is just a meme right theor yeah yeah yeah it's a barbarous relic is what Paul T Jones calls it right and it's a very specific type of person that wants to hold it and trade it over a long period of time and it's actually a limited market size what is an extremely large Market is the market for yield bearing money and that is where I've always seen eth sitting and having an extremely unique and very interesting Advantage

internet Bond Mike you like that M yeah I love the internet Bond meme I I love that me I was like this makes so much sense to me and eth has these really you know all these l1s we created this new commodity called block space and we're still figuring out the proper which properties of this created block space Mak uh make sense for which use cases but I've always seen eth as kind of like it's one it's more useful than Bitcoin right we haven't tried to like make it so useless that it can only be this hard form of money it's not as performant maybe as something like salana but it

sits at this very interesting intersection where it's still a monetary money- like asset but it can do more things specifically be productive and get yield and that to me is like a very interesting Niche that I would love to see it's not even a niche it's the largest market in the world that I would love to see e go down so this idea of maybe kind of maybe we're getting into a little bit of the the bull case there's there's still some I think fud we need to talk about but let's let's dip into the the bull case for for just a second here uh and throw it to Anthony maybe this idea of um eth as an internet Bond

as a productive asset that can be used in other chains uh to power other applications I know there's been a lot of uh just I would say latent conversations like sitting in the background about reaking and enan layer and that kind of thing what's your take on this internet Bond Meme and this property of um eth as a yield bearing asset uh collateral maybe going into 2024 do do you think that is powerful do you think that is something that can Resurrect The Narrative power and actually fundamentals of eth I mean I

think that is the biggest narrative and meme that we really have within the community and to go back to what Mike was saying about you know him not liking the ultrasound money meme I think in the ethereum community we have this tendency to create these Insider memes that just get out of control right I always felt like the ultrasound money thing was an Insider ethereum thing that we made for ourselves to poke a little bit of fun at bitcoiners right but of course memes have take on a life of their own and they go way crazier than you think they're going to go and we've done this with other things right with like the ethereum alignment meme like that just

is not anything that should be taken seriously it is an Insider thing that we talk about um amongst ourselves but because we do it publicly and because we speak about it on Twitter and podcasts and because it's easy to poke fun at right the ultra sound money memes easy to poke fun at the alignment stuff is it just goes much further than than we can basically uh uh can control and that leads to bad narratives forming that leads to people making fun of ethereum and I think that's why ethereum is always kind of uh in that spot and and I will agree also with the earlier points made around the fact that ethereum has always sat in the middle I think between

Bitcoin on one end and all the other layer ones in the the other end because ethereum is competing with all of that or at least tries to like I think eth is competing with BTC um you know people disagree with me on that but I think it is and obviously ethereum as a platform is trying to compete with the other layer ones as well but I think uh you know over the last couple years ethereum's competition as a platform has actually shifted to the l2s right because we we're using the l2s as kind of the execution layer and L1 as a settlement layer so we've shifted that but that is a thing that's going to take

a while to play out because we've now shifted basically Bally uh what ethereum was to what we want it to be and what we think it's it's best to be but that takes time for the network effects to catch up for everyone to understand that for all the complexities to be abstracted away right like the inoperability and the fragmentation those sorts of things they're all going to get solved they're all just engineering issues to me but you know over the short to medium term they're not going to get solved they're not going to be seamless and that's going to be a a narrative point for not just uh the other layer ones to hit on us about but also for the bitcoiners as well because now they have things like ordinals and now suddenly they're

incentivized to pump order and say oh we can do nfts on Bitcoin now we don't need ethereum so ethereum is always in this kind of Middle Ground where uh everyone around us basically is competing with us and I wouldn't say they hate us but they're going to obviously not talk favorably about ethereum if they're trying to promote their own thing um and I don't think that's as I said a new phenomenon it's been around for a while but I'll so go back to the point around eth being that kind of Internet Bond uh and and appealing to those more tradire folks I I I've heard this from a lot of people honestly and a lot of smart people have said the same thing that

yeah trfi is obsessed with yield you know in crypto I don't think people understand how obsessed trfi is with yield because in crypto people look at yield like ah I can get 5% on my eth or I can go dejen into this dogcoin and make 100x right because it's just like a lot of Deens that are crypto natives U but there are a lot of people who care about that yield I mean there is a lot of eth staked uh and I think people look at the amount of eth Stak like oh it's not as much as other chains and it's because e is used for much more than than staking but of the E that he staked they're earning a real yield from obviously there's the inflationary

rewards but then there's the real yield from the network activity right the me and the tips that are going to these stakers so people are using uh this already within within crypto but I think yeah as I said like crypto natives tend to vastly underestimate how popular yield is in the tradire well and just for everyday people you know everyday people don't want to be a Deen and don't want to sit on their computer throwing money at random things and hoping to score it big right uh and you know people do that in in real life like in casinos but it's not like in every everyday thing you don't you know most

people don't go to the casino with their life savings and like I'm going to put a you know I'll put it all on black and we'll see how we go but yeah there's that disconnect but as we progress into 2024 as we get the ETF right as e eth continues to integrate with the traditional Finance system and becomes kind of that that asset that Breakaway asset as um as it was put before where beta and E of the only things that are there right now uh uh eth is stands on its own uh because BTC doesn't offer a yield right because it is proof of work so e really stands it on its own in that Arena uh and I think that is a huge

narrative that we actually need to be leaning into more because I feel like a lot of ethereum natives they're stuck in like the Crypton native uh uh uh memes and narratives and they're forgetting about the fact that we've actually graduated from that it's like we're still thinking we're in high school but we're actually in college now and we should we should be focusing on that we shouldn't be trying to impress the high school kids we need to impress the college kids right so we've actually that's that's that's a problem I I I I I will actually say is that we we we're still stuck trying to in high should be in college with Anthony I see you as one

of um ethereum's most effective Educators and and communicators uh really and I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit more about kind of that that narrative because here here's maybe um kind of a setup uh that I have or an idea I have I think that um we are stuck in high school and ethereum narratives are stuck in high school and I think that um basically memes have sort of a shelf life to them and ultrasound money was fantastic IC coming out of like 2019 2020 where the popular

narrative was eth is gas and has no monetary policy right but like maybe its shelf life has kind of expired and maybe the ethereum community needs to move more towards this internet Bond type of motif but I'll tell you something else that I I see is happening in the background is uh ethereum itself has shifted from an execution chain to a settlement chain for other chains and that is totally different than other points in the cycle so one of the things that I've seen is basically when somebody comes into crypto used to be 2019 2020 they want to use some cool