Bull or Bear? Crypto Market Analysis with Ledger from UpOnly!

Bankless Nation, where is the crypto market going? Are we going up? We going down? I don't know. Maybe a bit of both. David, today is an episode where we look at prices. We look at the charts. Bankless is a thesis-driven media company, but not today. We're just looking at price today. Who do we have on? What are we discussing?

Uh, we're bringing on Ledger from Up OnlyFame uh to help us guide, uh walk us through the charts. So we're gonna look at the big boys, uh the Bitcoin, the Ether, the BTC ether ratio over the long time frame and also the near time frame. Because Ryan, um, two weekly roll ups ago, uh, you were talking about how you were feeling ready to capitulate on the possibility of triple digit ether ever coming back.

And then we had a moment where I was like, wait a second, like this is.

Heavy too.

We could just go right back down to a thousand dollar ether TBD on three-digit ether, but I think the big question that is going around in the crypto Twitter space is is this the biggest bull trap

of the bear market? Uh and I think um we remember back in 2019 the run from Bitcoin from 3,000 to 14,000

back down to 4,500. Uh so I remember,

I remember that bull trap.

Uh and I want to make sure that we to the best of our ability, we are able to at least ask the question, are we seeing something similar here today in 2023? Uh because if you remember, that was May of 2019, is when that happened, right in the middle of the year.

Here we are, April 26th.

Interesting point in the market, that's for sure. And I'm gonna make give you some more commentary on that. Um, but before we do, we gotta let our uh Bankless Nation know a message from our friends and sponsors over at Well, okay, so uh getting back to price though and kind of the comments, yeah, we are in a very interesting place in the market. I feel like um something about this under 2,000 mark for ETH, right? That's just a number that sticks in my head. And conveniently going to this episode, we're also just under 30k on the price of Bitcoin. And I know that because I just checked. Otherwise, I haven't been paying a lot of attention to price. But today is our opportunity to pay much more attention to it with Ledger. Guys, we'll be right back with Ledger. But before we do, we want to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible, including our number one recommended exchange. That's

Bankless Nation, you already know him, but here we've got Ledger, aka Brian, aka Ledger, co-host of the Up Only podcast. Don't know if that's a thing anymore. We'll ask that later on in the show. Uh well, also the co-host of LedgerCast, a trading podcast that he runs with Josh Olschwitz. Also the co-host of the Daily Open podcast. Weekly Open. Weekly Open. Excuse me. Weekly Open. Thank you. Uh and overall, uh another content producer uh in the space of crypto. Uh Ledger, welcome back to the show.

Hey, thanks for having me. My screen got smaller, so I don't know what happened there, but here we are.

It's fair market shrinkage. That's what is happening here.

Ledger, I think we I think we want to just hop right into this because uh there's two forces in the conversation

warfare games of crypto Twitter, which is uh

This is the biggest bull trap of all time

versus uh this is just the bounce back out of the FTX liquidations and the three RS Capital liquidations. And this is this is about what's fair value. Uh and so I'm hoping you can help us navigate that question. Of course, I don't expect anyone to be able to read the future and answer that question. But when you hear the question at the very least,

uh, are we in the biggest bull trap of all time? What what what comes to mind

This is the early innings, if it's even a bull trap. This is unimpressive yet as a bull trap.

Um, I am

not even remotely interested in selling anything at this moment,

and bears will feel much more pain even if there's a longer sideways market ahead.

Um

We are at the equivalent in my mind, if you look at Ethereum at 2000, of Bitcoin breaching back above 4K

in 2010.

back from compared to the last last.

Yeah. And I can share a screen whenever you want me to, but I go for it.

We gotta chart this whole episode. So this is just a bull trap for ants. You're just not even impressed by this.

So you're saying that like bull traps are a thing and the bull traps are totally possible and we're not there yet.

Can we talk to me about

a bull trap is what is a bull trap anyway, guys? For the non traders.

A bull trap is where bulls think all the pain is over and gone and done, and the real pain has not even started. Like we're gonna go to $500 ETH or $400 ETH, and everyone that thinks we were done at you know, sub a thousand, eight, nine hundred, whatever, uh, is wrong, and they're all gonna feel pain, and we're gonna go much deeper.

Um instead I would say bears will continue to feel punishment

um as they try to cont fade the market recovery. And I mean this across ETH and BTC. This is not an ETH BTC conversation.

If I look at Bitcoin itself, I see

a really excellent structure and recovery. This is not to say it can't go down 20, 30%. I don't care about that. I care if it's going to go down another like 60, 70% from current prices or make new lows to a significant degree or something like that, or massively underperform the S P 500 or broader markets.

In my mind, crypto is way ahead of the rest of the market in terms of feeling pain and recovering,

to where you may not have had max pain in some markets, but I believe that we've had max pain and then some in major crypto markets. There are bear markets going on in crypto right now, without a doubt, on a relative basis.

You cannot objectively look at Bitcoin or Ethereum and say that it's true about those two assets.

Now,

there, this is what I said I was gonna spoil you with.

DeFi, and I'm using Ave, I love Ave. Great product, great team, great people,

great principles. Ave relative to Ethereum is in a massive bear market and making new lows. DeFi, if you own the coins or even if you own like NFTs, those bear markets may have years ahead

on a relative basis to some of the strongest assets on planet Earth.

Right? Like Ave relative to the dollar is just sideways.

No problem. Not new lows. But when you're comparing it to

somebody calls it ultrasound money

in Ethereum, I don't know, or the the linear distribution schedule of Bitcoin where you know exactly what's going to happen with monetary policy.

Ethereum, we don't know. We just know people love burning it. But either way, either way, you have this like.

Disinflationary, like minimum inflation, lowering inflation over time, where the world is inflating more and more. And with Ethereum, you have disinflationary and sometimes highly

deflationary

assets that people are using block space, and there is demand to put hash rate out there and to spend energy for Bitcoin and to spend.

Uh development cycles and compute power on Ethereum. And those are unbelievably fundamentally strong assets with like really powerful economic principles that no other asset in the world can compare to.

None.

And I feel like I'm listening to a bankless podcast. Uh

You're just listening to me.

No co hosts, financial advice, or anything else. I love holding Ethereum. I love holding Bitcoin. I love holding hard assets right now.

I love when I can actually attach yield to those assets if possible and safe and secure and not over-leveraged.

If you're over leveraged, if you're in derivative assets, if you're deep down into the weeds of like in a coin sense, the