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01:16:51 · 3 years ago
Investing

Ben Hunt says, “Cut the BS! The Banks Are Solvent!"

This is our third episode in a series of conversations. To get the full debate you’ll need to listen to the last two episodes with Balaji Srinivasan and Arthur Hayes.

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Inside the episode

There are bank runs and also rumors of more bank runs on the horizon. One side says, “the banks are insolvent, get to the lifeboats.” Another side says, “the banks are going to be fine…we’re sick and tired of doomers pulling the fire alarm.” Who’s right?

In this episode, we’re speaking with Ben Hunt who lays out the counterpoint details on why banks are going to be fine. He believes Balaji and Arthur are dangerously wrong. Tune in to hear why!  


TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

6:55 Ben’s Crypto Credentials

10:36 Critiques of the Fed

16:55 Ben’s Understanding of Balaji’s Thesis

24:33 What Ben Believes is Untrue

33:42 Treasuries Are the Safest Assets?

43:34 Ben’s Objection

45:55 Icebergs

50:52 Fiat is Better?

57:45 Step Back for Society?

1:02:26 Checks on Power

1:07:39 Rules-Based Monetary Policy

1:12:30 How to Fix the Fed

1:15:35 Closing & Disclaimers


RESOURCES

Previous Debates

https://www.bankless.com/balaji-bets-the-dollar-will-hyperinflate-to-zero-not-a-drill

https://www.bankless.com/arthur-hayes-says-get-your-bitcoin-and-get-out

Ben Hunt

https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory

Transcript
00:00
Ben Hunt

What makes me angry is for people to say things like, oh, there are hundreds of banks insolvent and it's hyperinflation time and the system is coming crashing down and there's no hope

00:12
Ben Hunt

and buy Bitcoin.

00:13
Ben Hunt

Right? That that's what makes me angry.

00:16
Ben Hunt

Uh there are real problems here, and uh this is not helpful, right? In fact, it's actively harmful, and that's what I'm speaking out about.

00:28
Ryan

Bankless Nation, we're gonna get straight into the episode today. There's bank runs and there's rumors of bank runs going on. One side says the banks are insolvent, get to the lifeboats. Another side says the banks are gonna be fine, and they're sick and tired of the doomers pulling the fire alarm. So who's right? This is the third episode in a series of conversations we've been having on bankless, and to get the full debate, you'll need to listen to the last two. Uh on the get the lifeboat side, we had Bology Strinivasin. He said that Bitcoin is going to $1 million, that the dollar is hyperinflating. It's probably gonna happen fast, like in 90 days fast. Then we had Arthur Hayes. He gave us the trader's perspective. He doesn't think it'll happen as quickly as Bology, but he has the same message. Get out before it's too late. So this is our first episode on the counterpoint, on the gonna be fine side. The banks are okay. Ben Hunt is giving the counterpoints today. There are a few benefits, a few takeaways we want you to get out of this episode. Number one, why are the lifeboat people wrong? Number two, why the banks are actually solvent. This is what Ben thinks. It's his take. Number three, why treasuries are still the safest asset in the world. Number four, why Ben thinks hyper Bitcoin and hyper bitcoinization for the world is actually a really bad thing. And number five, how Ben thinks we can reform rather than replace the Fed. That seems to be a theme for this episode. There will be links in the show notes to the two previous episodes if you want to get caught up on the debate as it stands. There are two other things I want to say before we get into this episode. Number one, tensions are high on this debate. There's going to be an inclination to go on personal attacks and to question motives. I'll remind all of us before we get in that none of us can assess motives. We should focus on attacking the argument rather than the person. And so I encourage everyone listening to this to approach the arguments on both sides with an open mind and really focus on the arguments rather than descending into personal attacks. We see our role at Bankless is to present the arguments in the best light. Our listeners are smart. They can make decisions on their own. Number two, David planned to be here, but unfortunately he had an emergency he had to attend. So it's just Ben and myself today. Guys, we're going to get right to the episode of Ben Hunt, but before we do, we want to tell you about the sponsors that made it possible, including Bankless Nation. I am super excited to introduce you to our guest today. Once again, Ben Hunt. He is an investor and the creator of an incredible investor community called Epsilon Theory. He's a several-time bankless guest, uh, a uh perfect person to have this conversation, I think, because he's been one of the more outspoken critics against Bology Strinivasin's $1 million 90-day Bitcoin hyperinflation thesis. He thinks Bology, of course, uh in our episode earlier this week, said that the dollar was going to drop to uh near zero, or at least Bitcoin would be going to a million dollars in short order. And I think Ben Hunt is the internet's leading candidate to push back against that theory and that thesis. So we are uh happy to have him today. Ben, welcome to Bankless. How are you doing?

03:19
Ben Hunt

I'm doing great, and it's super to be back here.

03:21
Ben Hunt

uh with you guys uh always enjoy it so thanks for having me on

03:25
Ryan

Yeah, I think uh we asked for counterpoints to Bology's thesis because at Bankless we want to hear both sides of any argument so that we can sort of make up our minds about this. And of course, um Bankless is a uh you know, crypto-friendly community. But I also know you, Ben, to be a uh crypto-friendly individual friendly

03:41
Ben Hunt

person i am

03:42
Ben Hunt

yeah

03:43
Ryan

Yeah, and I I'm I know that because we've spent hours literally on previous episodes um talking about it. So um, you know, I that's why this is this is interesting. This is not a you know a crypto villain like Paul Krugman giving this critique of Bology's uh thesis. This is uh somebody who has expressed, hey, you know, there are some use cases for crypto, and um I think you've been excited about the things that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can do in the past. So I'm wondering if you could just, as we before we get into the discussion and the counterpoint to Bology, give us your crypto credentials a little bit. Like what are your thoughts on crypto as a

04:19
Ben Hunt

technology i i look i i mean

04:22
Ben Hunt

to say that i'm

04:23
Ben Hunt

you know a fan of of i i think crypto use cases might be going a little too far right i i think that there's

04:30
Ben Hunt

you know a a a clear use case a wonderful use case

04:35
Ben Hunt

alex gladstein you know has been very prominent on this about you know in

04:40
Ben Hunt

uh

04:41
Ben Hunt

repressive communities right i i mean that it's a it's a wonderful way to

04:48
Ben Hunt

Or a wonderful way.

04:49
Ben Hunt

Really one of the only feasible ways to exit

04:54
Ben Hunt

those kind of repressive systems.

04:57
Ben Hunt

I think, though, that my main

05:01
Ben Hunt

praise

05:03
Ben Hunt

for

05:05
Ben Hunt

Bitcoin specifically, crypto more generally,

05:08
Ben Hunt

is that I think that it is elegant and wonderful art.

05:12
Ben Hunt

And people think that that's a big put down when I say that. And it's actually my highest praise.

05:18
Ben Hunt

Art is what inspires us,

05:22
Ben Hunt

right? And I think that there I'm

05:25
Ben Hunt

I'm

05:26
Ben Hunt

very allied

05:28
Ben Hunt

and

05:29
Ben Hunt

enthusiastic about and supportive of

05:34
Ben Hunt

the

05:35
Ben Hunt

ethos,

05:36
Ben Hunt

as I would describe it, of the Bitcoin and larger crypto community.

05:41
Ben Hunt

One of self reliance,

05:43
Ben Hunt

long time horizons,

05:47
Ben Hunt

a mindset of autonomy.

05:51
Ben Hunt

I think that those are

05:54
Ben Hunt

what makes a society worthwhile and vibrant and successful.

06:00
Ben Hunt

I think that what makes an individual life vibrant

06:03
Ben Hunt

and meaningful and successful.

06:07
Ben Hunt

So that's, yeah, I'm not going to call that my credentials because I also think

06:14
Ben Hunt

that

06:17
Ben Hunt

Bitcoin specifically, crypto more broadly,

06:21
Ben Hunt

like any

06:23
Ben Hunt

application in finance,

06:26
Ben Hunt

attracts.

06:28
Ben Hunt

fraudsters,

06:30
Ben Hunt

hucksters,

06:32
Ben Hunt

worse,

06:33
Ben Hunt

right? Yeah, people I call raccoons.

06:37
Ben Hunt

And that's my

06:40
Ben Hunt

that's what makes me angry.

06:43
Ben Hunt

That is has what has made me angry about Bology, right? It's that

06:49
Ben Hunt

raccoonishness, the,

06:52
Ben Hunt

as Big Daddy would say in uh Cat on a hot tin roof, the mendacity,

06:58
Ben Hunt

just the mendacity

07:00
Ben Hunt

Right, of the lies, the self-interested lies.

Ryan Sean Adams

1115 posts

Crypto investor going bankless.

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