Ben Hunt says, “Cut the BS! The Banks Are Solvent!"
This is our third episode in a series of conversations. To get the full debate you’ll need to listen to the last two episodes with Balaji Srinivasan and Arthur Hayes.
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Inside the episode
There are bank runs and also rumors of more bank runs on the horizon. One side says, “the banks are insolvent, get to the lifeboats.” Another side says, “the banks are going to be fine…we’re sick and tired of doomers pulling the fire alarm.” Who’s right?
In this episode, we’re speaking with Ben Hunt who lays out the counterpoint details on why banks are going to be fine. He believes Balaji and Arthur are dangerously wrong. Tune in to hear why!
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
6:55 Ben’s Crypto Credentials
10:36 Critiques of the Fed
16:55 Ben’s Understanding of Balaji’s Thesis
24:33 What Ben Believes is Untrue
33:42 Treasuries Are the Safest Assets?
43:34 Ben’s Objection
45:55 Icebergs
50:52 Fiat is Better?
57:45 Step Back for Society?
1:02:26 Checks on Power
1:07:39 Rules-Based Monetary Policy
1:12:30 How to Fix the Fed
1:15:35 Closing & Disclaimers
RESOURCES
Previous Debates
https://www.bankless.com/balaji-bets-the-dollar-will-hyperinflate-to-zero-not-a-drill
https://www.bankless.com/arthur-hayes-says-get-your-bitcoin-and-get-out
Ben Hunt
https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory
Transcript
What makes me angry is for people to say things like, oh, there are hundreds of banks insolvent and it's hyperinflation time and the system is coming crashing down and there's no hope
and buy Bitcoin.
Right? That that's what makes me angry.
Uh there are real problems here, and uh this is not helpful, right? In fact, it's actively harmful, and that's what I'm speaking out about.
Bankless Nation, we're gonna get straight into the episode today. There's bank runs and there's rumors of bank runs going on. One side says the banks are insolvent, get to the lifeboats. Another side says the banks are gonna be fine, and they're sick and tired of the doomers pulling the fire alarm. So who's right? This is the third episode in a series of conversations we've been having on bankless, and to get the full debate, you'll need to listen to the last two. Uh on the get the lifeboat side, we had Bology Strinivasin. He said that Bitcoin is going to $1 million, that the dollar is hyperinflating. It's probably gonna happen fast, like in 90 days fast. Then we had Arthur Hayes. He gave us the trader's perspective. He doesn't think it'll happen as quickly as Bology, but he has the same message. Get out before it's too late. So this is our first episode on the counterpoint, on the gonna be fine side. The banks are okay. Ben Hunt is giving the counterpoints today. There are a few benefits, a few takeaways we want you to get out of this episode. Number one, why are the lifeboat people wrong? Number two, why the banks are actually solvent. This is what Ben thinks. It's his take. Number three, why treasuries are still the safest asset in the world. Number four, why Ben thinks hyper Bitcoin and hyper bitcoinization for the world is actually a really bad thing. And number five, how Ben thinks we can reform rather than replace the Fed. That seems to be a theme for this episode. There will be links in the show notes to the two previous episodes if you want to get caught up on the debate as it stands. There are two other things I want to say before we get into this episode. Number one, tensions are high on this debate. There's going to be an inclination to go on personal attacks and to question motives. I'll remind all of us before we get in that none of us can assess motives. We should focus on attacking the argument rather than the person. And so I encourage everyone listening to this to approach the arguments on both sides with an open mind and really focus on the arguments rather than descending into personal attacks. We see our role at Bankless is to present the arguments in the best light. Our listeners are smart. They can make decisions on their own. Number two, David planned to be here, but unfortunately he had an emergency he had to attend. So it's just Ben and myself today. Guys, we're going to get right to the episode of Ben Hunt, but before we do, we want to tell you about the sponsors that made it possible, including Bankless Nation. I am super excited to introduce you to our guest today. Once again, Ben Hunt. He is an investor and the creator of an incredible investor community called Epsilon Theory. He's a several-time bankless guest, uh, a uh perfect person to have this conversation, I think, because he's been one of the more outspoken critics against Bology Strinivasin's $1 million 90-day Bitcoin hyperinflation thesis. He thinks Bology, of course, uh in our episode earlier this week, said that the dollar was going to drop to uh near zero, or at least Bitcoin would be going to a million dollars in short order. And I think Ben Hunt is the internet's leading candidate to push back against that theory and that thesis. So we are uh happy to have him today. Ben, welcome to Bankless. How are you doing?
I'm doing great, and it's super to be back here.
uh with you guys uh always enjoy it so thanks for having me on
Yeah, I think uh we asked for counterpoints to Bology's thesis because at Bankless we want to hear both sides of any argument so that we can sort of make up our minds about this. And of course, um Bankless is a uh you know, crypto-friendly community. But I also know you, Ben, to be a uh crypto-friendly individual friendly
person i am
yeah
Yeah, and I I'm I know that because we've spent hours literally on previous episodes um talking about it. So um, you know, I that's why this is this is interesting. This is not a you know a crypto villain like Paul Krugman giving this critique of Bology's uh thesis. This is uh somebody who has expressed, hey, you know, there are some use cases for crypto, and um I think you've been excited about the things that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can do in the past. So I'm wondering if you could just, as we before we get into the discussion and the counterpoint to Bology, give us your crypto credentials a little bit. Like what are your thoughts on crypto as a
technology i i look i i mean
to say that i'm
you know a fan of of i i think crypto use cases might be going a little too far right i i think that there's
you know a a a clear use case a wonderful use case
alex gladstein you know has been very prominent on this about you know in
uh
repressive communities right i i mean that it's a it's a wonderful way to
Or a wonderful way.
Really one of the only feasible ways to exit
those kind of repressive systems.
I think, though, that my main
praise
for
Bitcoin specifically, crypto more generally,
is that I think that it is elegant and wonderful art.
And people think that that's a big put down when I say that. And it's actually my highest praise.
Art is what inspires us,
right? And I think that there I'm
I'm
very allied
and
enthusiastic about and supportive of
the
ethos,
as I would describe it, of the Bitcoin and larger crypto community.
One of self reliance,
long time horizons,
a mindset of autonomy.
I think that those are
what makes a society worthwhile and vibrant and successful.
I think that what makes an individual life vibrant
and meaningful and successful.
So that's, yeah, I'm not going to call that my credentials because I also think
that
Bitcoin specifically, crypto more broadly,
like any
application in finance,
attracts.
fraudsters,
hucksters,
worse,
right? Yeah, people I call raccoons.
And that's my
that's what makes me angry.
That is has what has made me angry about Bology, right? It's that
raccoonishness, the,
as Big Daddy would say in uh Cat on a hot tin roof, the mendacity,
just the mendacity
Right, of the lies, the self-interested lies.