📺 Why $ETH is going to $3T | Ryan Allis

hey, bankless, nation, excited, about, this state, of, the, nation, episode, david, you ready, to, talk, about, eth, the, asset, my friend, it's, my, favorite, asset, ryan, i don't, know, if, people, know, this, but, i'm really, bullish, on, eth and, it's, been, a, while, since, we, have discussed, why, and, what, are, the, numbers behind, the, bullishness, because, that, is the, cool, thing, about, ether, is, there, are actual, numbers, there, we, can, actually unpack, and, discuss, some, of, the, reasons why, ether, you, can, be, bullish, on, ether

yeah, so, like, i, think, this, this, obviously if, you, guys, been, listening, bankless, you know, that, we, think, ethan, is, undervalued but, how, much, how, much, by, how, much, what is, the, model, to, prove, that, this, is, uh undervalued, and, i, don't, think, this, is the, end, all, be, all, model, it's, a discounted, cash, flow, analysis, it's fantastic, for, for, you, know, capital assets, like, stocks, and, you, know, equities and, bonds, and, and dividend, producing, assets, dividend producing, assets, but, uh our, guests, today, will, show, us

why, ether, if, you, use, a, discounted, cash flow, model, based, on, his, blockchain, fees alone, ether, should, be, worth, four trillion, dollars, what it's, not, worth, four, trillion, i, only, put three, trillion, in, the, tweet, i, guess, i wasn't, both, enough, yeah, it's, gone, up okay, the, model, was, just, updated, uh, as, of today, for, these, new, numbers, we, have, ryan alice, on, the, podcast, who's, gonna, walk through, this, discounted, cash, flow analysis, uh, this, is, part, of, the, reason we, think, eath, is, undervalued, so, stay tuned, sharpen, your, pencil, we're, gonna crunch, the, numbers, we're, gonna, open, up some, spreadsheets, and, we're, going to

take, a, look, at, this, asset, in, some, more detail, um, before, we, do, david, we, should talk, a, bit, about, our, friends, and sponsors, at, zirion, because, they, are doing, some, awesome, things, we, are, huge fans, of, xeran, i, think, last, time, we, told you, about, their, new, nft, features, now they, are, upgrading, the, xerion, d5 portfolio, viewer to, give, you, access, to, all, the, chains all, the, changes and, also, they've, got, some, cool, bridging functionality, here, david, i, know, you've messed, around, with, this, a, little, bit, as well, what, have, they, added, recently, what

should, bankless, listeners, be, aware, of yeah, so, xerion's, got, uh, seven, different protocols, with, two, more, coming, all, the evm, protocols, like, things, like, avalanche polygon optimism, and, arbitrary, they, are, all hooked, into, xerion, with, things, like solana, and, phantom, coming, soon, as, well and, so, they, are, prepping, for, the multi-chain, universe, which, is, definitely coming, whether, you, believe, that, that, is a, multi-layer, one, or, multi, layer, two zerarian, has, got, you, covered, uh, seven different, chains, are, up, and, running right, now, with, over, 500, different

protocols, integrated, into, xerion, which really, just, lets, you, do literally, whatever, you, want, and, so there's, so, many, different, bridges, out there, there's, hop, there's, connects there's, mover, there's, all, these different, bridges xerion, just, obfuscates, that, away and, just, makes, it, just, super, easy, just go, i, have, asset, on, chain, a, and, i, want asset, on, chain, b make, that, happen, for, me, and, xeron, just makes, this, whole, entire, user, experience much, much, more, trivial, and, easy, to, get that, done, so, living, a, multi-chain, life is, enabled, by, xerion, bridge, within

zirion, guys, so, the, call, to, action, is, go connect, your, wallet, go, play, around, with it, and, you, can, find, a, link, to, the, show notes, about, that, start, trading, across networks, start, bridging, with, xerion that's, bankless, dot, cc, slash, xerion, to find, out, more, david, i, want, to, start, with the, question, i, ask, you the, state, of, the, nation, ryan, is, aspiring we, are, aspiring, we, are, dreaming, bigger dreams, this, is, always, something, that, i think, people, when, they, try, and, reason

about, ether, and, reason, about, ethereum they, need, to, dream, bigger, dreams, and, so ryan, today, we, are, aspiring, to, dream bigger, dreams, and, we've, got, the, receipts to, back, that, up and, that, is, what, we, are, going, to, unpack to, the, the, day, today, the, receipts, that back, up, the rationale, as, to, why, people, who, are bullish, ether, should, dream, bigger, dreams

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hey, everyone, we, are, back, with, ryan, alice we, are, going, to, model, the, fair, price, of eth, today, i, hope, you're, ready, for, it ryan, is, a, managing, partner, at, heart rhythm, which, is, a, crypto, hedge, fund, he's a, serial, entrepreneur, as, well, ton, of experience, in, the, space, also, has, a fantastic, newsletter, that, i, subscribe, to it's, called, coinstack, where, he, writes about, ethereum, bitcoin, polka, dot, all, the other, chains, web3, the, future, of, money everything, i'm, sure, bankless, listeners are, interested, in, ryan, welcome, to bankless, it's, great, to, have, you, on

thank, you, ryan, super, excited, to, be, here on, bank, list, i'm, a, big, fan, and, it's, been a, goal, to, be, here, and, i'm, happy, to, be here, today, well, uh, you, made, it, with, this analysis, my, friend, it's, a, fantastic analysis, and, uh, this, is, probably, a honeypot, for, for, ever, coming, on, the podcast, right, because, we, are, just definitely, drawn, towards, these, sorts, of things, uh, i, mean, listeners, to, the podcast, know, we, think, eth, is, undervalued and, you, are, bringing, some, numbers, to, the table, to, prove, it, so, we're, going, to, get through, your, disk, we're, going, to, go through, your, discounted, cash, flow

uh, model, here, in, a, second, and, you, know, i i, don't, want, to, bury, the, lead, here because, basically, you, you, are, predicting according, the, valuation, of, discounted cash, flow, that, ether, should, be, a, lot more, valuable, than, it, is, today, okay above, 10k three, to, four, trillion, dollars, is, what the, model, says, but, i, want, to, start, with this, question uh, for, you, ryan, so what, do, you, how, do, you, think, about, eth like, from, a, valuation, perspective high, level, i, know, we're, modeling, it, here as, a, discounted, cash, flow, but, how, do, you

describe, eth, when, someone, asks about, it, is, it, is, it, like, a, stock, is, it like, a, money, is, it, a, commodity, is, it something, else what, words, do, you, use, to, describe, it yeah, obviously, ether, is, all, kinds, of things, i, i, like, to, think, of ether, as, the, token, of, the, new, digital age, it's, it's, the, primary, money, of, the internet, and, i, think, from, a, valuation perspective you, can, look, at, it, as, a, commodity, you can, look, at, as, utility, what, ultimately drives, the, value, of, ether, is, going, to, be

demand, to, buy, the, token, to, actually, use it, on, the, ethereum, blockchain, and, so there's, a, core, demand, that, drives, the price, of, youth, over, time, and, as, more people, want, to, use, the, ethereum blockchain, the, price, of, ether, is, going to, go, up, and, also, we, now, have, cash, flows soon, coming, with, after, the, merge, with the, proof, of, stake, transition, to, holders of, eth, and, that, in, and, of, itself, is going, to, drive, institutional, buyers, to further, purchase, more, ether one, question, i, have, go, for, around i, was, just, going, to, ask, like, could, you

ground, us, ryan, just, for, for, a, second, in um, you, said, cash, flows, and, what, we're going, to, look, at, in, just, a, minute, or, two is, a, discounted, cash, flow, analysis, but people, who, don't, have, experience, with this, sort, of, thing, you, know, didn't, take finance, in, school, you, aren't, aren't trying, to, value, equities, can, you, give, us the, tldr, on, what, a, discounted, cash, flow analysis, actually, is, and, why, it's important absolutely, so, just, briefly, on, my background, i, spent, 10, years, building, a software, company, a, ceo, called, eye

contact, in, north, carolina, and, then, i, did a, two-year, mba, at, harvard, business school, and, when, you, go, to, harvard business, school, as, an, mba, student they, grill, into, you, that, the, way, you value, any, asset, is, the, present, value, of future, cash, flows, and, so, you, can, and anyone, can model, out, the, future, expected, cash, flows of, ethereum, now, this, is, something, that you, couldn't, do two, years, ago, and, it's, only, since, the eip1559, update, in, august, when, they, began

burning, using, some, of, the, rent, revenues from, the, transactions, to, burn, the, tokens which, you, can, think, of, sort, of, like, a stock, buyback, it's, reducing, the, supply of, ether, there's, a, 118, million, ether today, that's, going, to, go, down, if, you follow, justin, drake's, model, over, the next, 10, years, probably, to, 100, million ether, somewhere, around, there, and, so, it's like, a, stock, buyback, where, it's, reducing the, supply, and, then, the, key, thing, is, for anyone, that, follows, bank, list, you, know that, coming, later, this, year, we, have, the merge, we, have, the, proof, of, stake, merge and, we, will, soon, have, the, rest, of, those

cash, flows going, that, aren't, going, to, burn, the ether, going, to, long-term, stakers, which are, long-term, holders, so, you, can, think of, that, as, a, dividend, you, can, think, of that, as, a, on-chain, cash, flow, to, holders which, is, going, to, be, very, very attractive, when, you, combine, those, two that, means, that, 100 of, the, revenues, that, are, being, paid, for in, the, auctions, to, use, the, ethereum blockchain, are, going, to, be, paid, out directly, or, indirectly, to, holders, and because, of, that, you, can, build, a

discounted, cash, flow, to, price, ether, so we've, got, two, mechanisms, here, we've, got one, a, stock, buyback, and, then, two, we, have a, dividend, distribution, and, the, reason, a discounted, cash, flow, makes, sense, is because, these, mechanisms, are, in, place when, you, model, the, price, of, an, equity and, you, know, harvard, and, the, mbas, of, the world, and, the, business, undergrads, have been, doing, this, for, decades, already, and that's, why, the, same, tool, set, applies here, in, your, mind, is, that, the, case yeah, that's, exactly, correct, you, could look, at, ether, as, having, additional, value

as, a, monetary, value, or, utility, value but, what, i'm, looking, at, is, purely, based on, the, cash, flows, the, folks, sitting, in new, york, and, singapore, and, london, that are, going, to, be, valuing, ether, from, a business, perspective, a, year, from, now, two years, from, now trying, to, come, up, with, what, is, the, fair value, of, this, asset, based, on, cash, flows alone, this, is, the, model, they're, going, to be, using, to, be, able, to, value, how, much should, ether, be, priced, at, in, terms, of total, market, cap, and, then, in, terms, of per, ether so, for, all, the, listeners, out, there, that

don't, have, a, business, background, or, a finance, background, i, don't, know, maybe you, uh, like, perhaps, me, graduated, with, a degree, in, psychology, and, the, name discounted, cash, flow, is, like, what the, reason, why, we, have, this, discounted word, in, there, is, because, you, have, to give, a, discount, for, money, that, you, don't have, today, but, you, do, have, in, the, future and, so, if, we think, that, this, company, or, equity, or crypto, asset, is, going, to, be, producing money, for, us, in, the, future money, for, you, in, the, future, is, nice, but it's, not, as, nice, as, it, is, money, today

and, so, that's, where, the, word, discounted it, comes, in, because, we, have, to, make, some sort, of, assumptions, as, to, how, to, devalue money, in, the, future, versus, money, that, we have, today, i, just, wanted, to, unpack, that discounted, cash, flow, uh, side, of, things ryan, you, want, to, add, anything, to, that yeah, that's, exactly, right, 100, in, your pocket, today, is, worth, more, than, a hundred, dollars, in, your, pocket, 10, years from, now, so, that's, why, we, discount, it, to create, the, value, of, it, today and, ryan, i'm, assuming, that, you've, made discounted, cash, flow, models, for, other assets, before, looking, at, your, your, model

for, for, ether, it, kind, of, seems, like you've, done, this, a, few, times, but, how, is ether, as, an, asset, different, uh, it, is like, the, what's, it, like, to, go, and, do, a dcf, for, ether, is, it, you, know, similar run-of-the-mill, like, oh, let, me, just, plug in, the, numbers, or, are, there, any curveballs, for, producing, a, model, like this, what's, it, like, to, produce, a, dcf, for ether well, when, you're, doing, a, dcf, for, a company, all, you, really, need, are, its current, revenues, its, current, expenses and, then, you, take, it, what, what, its, are its, current, net, profits

and, those, net, profits, are, essentially its, annual, cash, flows and, then, you provide, a, growth, rate, that, you, assume that, those, cash, flows, are, going, to, grow and, usually, dcfs, are, gone, over, say, a, 15 or, 20, year, period, you're, projecting, the future, cash, flows, of, a, business, now, that could, go, up, that, could, go, down, but generally, speaking, a, growing, business, is going, to, grow, at, some, average, rate, per year, the, the, us, economy, is, growing, about you, know, three, to, four, percent, a, year somewhere, like, that, if, a, fast, growth company, might, grow, at, 30, or, 40, percent, a

year, now, what's, interesting, with, ether is, two, things, number, one, is, that, because ethereum, is, a, is, a, distributed, ledger technology, it's, a, smart, contract platform, there, actually, aren't, any, costs of, running, the, network, uh, the, costs, are all, paid, for, by, the, third, parties, that participate, in, providing, security, to, the platform, there's, no, centralized, ethereum company, that, has, a, staff, that, has, you know, people, they, have, to, pay, there's, of course, the, ethereum, foundation, but that's, completely, separate, from, the

ethereum, blockchain, itself, and, so, what's unique, this, is, the, very, first, asset, i've ever, seen, in, 15, years, of, looking, at different, assets, where, there, are, no costs, so, 100 of, the, revenue, from, the, ethereum blockchain, is, profit, 100, is, cash, flow there, is, no, overhead, there's, no, servers there's, no, electricity, it's, paid, for, by the, third, party, validators, and, so, that's something, that's, extremely, unique, in, an average, business, maybe, they'd, have, ten percent, net, profits, with, ethereum, you have, a, hundred, percent, net, profits, the

other, thing, that's, extremely, unique, is most, businesses, tend, to, grow, about, 10, to 30, percent, a, year, ethereum, if, you, just look, at, january, 2022, the, month, that, just ended, and, you, compare, that, versus, its revenues, a, year, ago, in, january, 2021 which, of, course, even, then, we, were, in, the middle, of, a, bull, market, we, have, grown revenues, year, over, year, for, ethereum, by 400 407, exactly, year, over, year, and, so, what's interesting, about, this, is, not, only, do, we have, a, hundred, percent, revenues, our, cash

flows, we, also, have, a, growth, rate, that's more, than, 10x, an, average, growth, company and, yet, ethereum, is, still, trading, at, a price, to, earnings, multiple, that, is, lower than, an, average, company, so, there's, a, lot of, opportunity, for, upside, yeah, so, yeah those, two, points, you, know, the, second point, that, you, said, is, the, growth, right and, david's, getting, pretty, hot, and steamy, over, there, so, we, better, slow, down and, get, a, little, bearish, for, a, second but, um, you, know, the, first, point, where you, said, uh, there, are, no, costs, ethereum

doesn't, doesn't, have, any, costs, just, want to, clarify, that, with, you, because, i, guess from, the, perspective, of, the, ethereum network, the, cost, the, thing, it's, paying for, is, security, and, that, i, guess, is, it's from, the, ethereum, network, that, is, its expense, line, item, but, i, think, you're looking, at, it, from, a, staker's perspective, or, a, validator's, perspective where, all, of, this network, security, cost, actually, comes back in, the, form, of, a, dividend if, you, are, a, staker, right, so, right, now

uh, hopefully, listeners, will, know, that ethereum, is, completely, proof, of, work so, unless, you, run, mining, nodes, uh, you are, not, receiving, any, of, that, revenue but, in, the, future, proof, of, stake hopefully, uh june, july, of, this, year then, if, you, were, staking, the, network that, means, you, you, own, ethan, you actually, stake, it, then, you, are, a recipient, of, that, revenue, is, that, what you, mean, by, no, costs, because, if, you're, a staker, you, just, get, that, revenue, that's exactly, right, now, with, bitcoin, you, can't

do, a, dcf, model, because, on, the, bitcoin network, which, has, revenues, they're, about you, know, 95, lower, than, the, ethereum network, revenues, but, bitcoin, blockchain does, have, some, revenues, none, of, those revenues, go, to, long-term, holders, they all, get, paid, out, to, minors and, so, because, of, that, you, can't, model the, actual, fundamental, intrinsic, value of, bitcoin, but, with, ether, you, now, can model, the, fundamental, intrinsic, value, of ether, and, you're, exactly, right, because all, of, the, security, starting, with, the

proof, of, stake, post, merge, world, just, six months, from, now, is, going, to, be, provided by, a, distributed, network, of, tens, of thousands, or, hundreds, of, thousands, of stakers, around, the, world, potentially millions, soon what, what, that, means, is, that, all, of, the security, costs, are, actually, being, paid out, to, long-term, holders, who, are, staking the, asset, and, so, because, of, that, it's, a hundred, percent, of, revenues, go, flow directly, or, indirectly, to, long-term holders, and, stakers okay, revenue, flows, directly, and indirectly, i, want, to, unpack, that, a

little, bit, right, and, this, will, be, the last, thing, before, we, get, into, the, to, the model, uh, there, are, direct like, uh, direct, dividends, being, paid, to those, who, stake, and, that, those, who, stake they, watch, the, amount, of, ether that, they, hold, go, up, tick, upwards, slowly over, time, and, that, is, a, cash, flow, but then, we, also, have, like, and, this, is, where things, get, a, little, bit, muddled, because bankless, has, used, different, terms, to describe, the, buyback, and, burn, where, like we, we've, also, talked, about, how, the, burn mechanism, is, kind, of, like, a, dividend

model, but, it's, all, but, we, need, to, be careful, there, because, with, you, when, you hold, ether, you, benefit, from, the, burn, in a, similar, way, to, a, dividend, but, it's actually, a, buyback, uh, and, so, while, like you, receive, that, value, it's, because through, the, process, of, buying, back, and so, when, we, use, the, term, dividend, we're talking, about ether, stakers, receiving, ether distributions, from, staking, their, ether and, validating, the, network, and, then there's, the, buy, back, which, is, for everyone, else all, ether, holders, that, makes, the, ether

more, scarce, and, so, while, that, revenue number, for, ethereum, like, if, ethereum pulls, in, a, million, dollars, of, revenue roughly, 70, percent, of, that, million dollars, will, get, burnt, which, is, like, a buyback, and, sometimes, in, the, past bankless, has, called, that, a, dividend, but technically, that's, not, right, technically it's, just, uh, a, buyback, and, then, the dividend, aspect, if, we're, going, with, a dollar discounted, cash, flow, model, the, dividend aspect, is, just, going, to, those, who, stake um, so, i, just, wanted, to, unpack, that, a little, bit, anything, you, want, to, add, to that, ryan

that's, exactly, correct, in, in, the, spring of, 2021, about, nine, or, ten, months, ago, you had, justin, drake, on, for, some, of, his, you know incredible, episodes, on, bank, list, and, he put, out, some, models, and, from, those models, i, was, able, to, build, this discounted, cash, flow, with, the, exact assumptions, you, just, shared, that, 70 of, the, transaction, fees, are, going, to, be burned, that's, now, of, course, happening, um and, that, soon, that, rest, of, it, the, other 30, percent, is, going, to, go, back, to, the stakers, the, long-term, holders, that anyone, can, participate, in

by, the, way, does, that, ever, happen, in these, in, a, dcf, do, companies, i, know companies, buy, back, their, stock, but, do they, ever, burn, it, they, ever, like, just take, it, off, the, market, permanently, and just, decrease, supply that, is, what, happens, so, when, a, stock buyback, happens, in, traditional, equity markets, they, purchase, the, stock, back from, shareholders, and, then, they, actually get, rid, of, that, stock, from, their corporate, treasury, such, that, the denominator, of, the, total, number, of shares, goes, down, which, makes, everyone's stock, per, share, go, up, so, it, is, fairly

analogous, uh, so, okay, we, talked, about maybe, maybe, two uh, differences, which, is, the, insane growth, rate uh, and, you, know, um uh in, comparing, this, to, other, discounted cash, flows, but, one, other, difference maybe, to, to, illustrate, is, um you, don't, have, to, wait, for, an, annual report, to, get, these, revenue, numbers and, i, think, that's, really, cool, like, you don't, have, to trust, insiders, or, you, know, analysts, to parlay, these, numbers, to, you

they're, updated, in, real, time, and, anyone can, query, ethereum and, forecast, this, and, create, their, own discounted, cash, flow, models, and, that's that's, a, first, in, history, especially when, we're, dealing, with, with, this, amount of, uh, capital, and, this, amount, of, money so, i, think, that's, interesting, but, let's uh, let's, start, to, dive, into, the, model then, here, and, i'm, showing, it, now, ryan um and, i, want, to, start, maybe, on, the, on, the left left-hand, side, with, some, of, these inputs, to, the, model, and, if, you're, if you're, if, you, guys, are, tracking, on

youtube, you, can, you, can, see, this, on, my screen you, can, also, click, the, link, in, the, show notes, to, also, go, look, at, it, you, can, see all, the, people, that, are, looking, at, that because, they've, done, that, yeah, okay, cool and, then, for, podcast, listeners, uh, we will, try, to talk, about, these, things, but, let's, talk about, the, inputs, to, the, ethereum discounted, cash, flow, ryan, so, what, are the, most, important, inputs uh, that, we're, assuming, here, and, where where, did, they, come, from, and, by, the, way notice, you, just, updated, this, today because, the, numbers, went, up, i, think, from the, last, time

i, saw, this so, um ether, is, worth, even, more, i, i'm, assuming you, got, that, you, updated, this, based, on january, 2022, already, so, this, is completely, fresh that's, correct, to, your, last, point, uh this, morning, which, is, february, 1st, here in, the, united, states i, literally, went, on, a, glass, note, and, i got, the, january, 2022, ethereum, total, fees total, fees, are, equivalent, to, the, other side, is, revenue, people, sometimes complain, about, fees, but, you, have, to understand, as, a, long-term, holder, the

other, side, of, fees, is, of, course, revenue that, is, now, being, paid, back, to, holders and, so, for, january, 2022, the, total ethereum, revenue, was, 1.35 billion, dollars, now, that, actually, went up, from, 1.1, billion, dollars, in, december 2021, and, so, even, though, the, price, of ether, has, come, down, by, almost, 45, percent over, the, last, two, months, we've, actually seen, month-over-month, growth, in, what really, matters, which, is, the, amount, of revenues, that, then, get, paid, back, out, to

holders, so, that's, the, very, first, input it's, the, revenue, from, the, prior, month you, could, also, do, the, revenue, from, the last, 365, days, either, way, and, then, in, the next, row, we, annualize, that, number, so, we just, take, 1.3, billion, times, 12, and, that gives, you, 16, billion, dollars, that, would be what, ethereum's, total, revenues, would, be if, we, do, exactly, what, we, did, in, january 2022, times, 12 for, the, year, of, uh, 2022., now, you, could just, leave, it, there, if, you, were, trying

to, price, the, value, of, ethereum, today, on the, proof, of, work, model, without, the rewards, going, back, to, long-term, holders you, would, take, the, total, profits, the total, revenue, at, 16.2, billion, however using, justin, drake's, modeling it, looks, like, the, latest, data, post, merge that, i, have, correct, me, if, i'm, wrong, but i, think, we're, going, to, see, about 1.1 million, each, that, are, going, to, be created, each, year, as, rewards, for, stakers and, so, at, the, current, price, of, about, 2

800, per, eth, that, adds, an, additional, 3 billion, dollars, in, value, that, is, going to, be, paid, out, to, the, holders, the long-term, holders, and, stakers, of, ether once, the, merge, happens, hopefully, around july, as, you, mentioned, so, you, add, those two, numbers, together, 16, billion, plus, 3 billion, and, you, get, the, total, revenue for, an, on, an, annualized, basis, for, a total, ethereum, network, of, 19.2 billion, dollars, that, is, a, huge amount, of, money

so that's, the, first, input, the, first, input is, annualized, total, revenue, i'm, doing, it january, 22, times, 12, but, you, could, also do, it, the, last, year, just, just, to, pause there, one, thing, we've, often, said, on, bank lists, is, like, um blockchain, sell, blocks, apple, sells iphones, blockchains, sell, blocks, this, is the, product, that, blockchains, sell, in particular, uh, smart, contract, platforms like, ethereum, and, so, what, you're, saying is look last, month, january, 2022, ethereum, sold

1.3, billion, dollars, worth, of, its, product that, is, block, space, and, if, you, analyze annualize, that, that's, a, 16.2, billion dollar, a, year revenue, number, for, the, product, that, is ethereum, block, space that, is, exactly, correct so, that, that's, really, all, you, need, um you, you, start, out, the, second, input, of course, is, your, profit, margin there, are, no, costs, in, distributed network, all, the, costs, are, paid, for currently, by, the, miners, and, later, by, the

stakers, and, validators, and, so, if, you assume, that, 100, of, the, revenues, are, in fact, cash, flows then, what, you, do, in, uh, you, can, see, in cell, e54, you, take, the, total, 19.2, billion in, cash, flow, for, your, 2022, here, and, you put, that, in, as, an, input, into, the discounted, cash, flow, and, so, that, is, the beginning, year, 2022, the, first, year, in the, model, and, then, what, i, do, is, i've, now forecasted, the, next, 20, years, of, revenue from, 2022, to, 2041

and, i've, assumed, what, i, believe, is, a modest, and, conservative, growth, rate for, those, cash, flows, i've, assumed, it's starting, at, 40, percent, a, year going, down, to, 10, percent, a, year, by, 2041. that, averages, out, to, exactly, 25, percent average, growth, over, the, next, 20, years, of the, revenues, from, ethereum, now, i, think it, might, actually, be, higher, than, 25, a year, for, the, next, 20, years, and, here's why um, in, the, last

year, in, 2021, versus, 2020, it, went, up, a thousand, percent, and, then, in, january 2022, versus, 2021, it's, up, 407 and, even, in, a, market, where, the, prices, of ether, are, down, the, last, two, months, we've seen, a, month-over-month, increase, in, the amount, of, revenue, of, ethereum, the blockchain, and, while, some, say, okay, layer two, side, chains, might, provide alternatives, as, you, all, have, talked about, on, bank, lists, ethereum, is, the manhattan, of, block, space, it's, the, block

space, that, if, your, visa, is, settling, a few, hundred, million, dollars, a, day, you're going, to, do, that, on, the, ethereum blockchain, they, don't, care, about, the, 100 150, gas, fee, to, do, that, they're, going, to pay, that, all, day, long, and, so, because, of that, i, actually, think, we're, going, to, be in, a, world, where, the, cost, to, use, mainnet ethereum, mainnet, on, a, per, transaction basis, is, probably, not, going, to, go, down even, after, sharding, happens, eventually in, a, couple, years, i, think, the, price, will stay, around, the, same, and, i, think, the revenues, of, ethereum, will, continue, to grow, over, the, next, 15, to, 20, years

significantly, more, than, 25, percent, per year so, i, want, to, unpack, the, annual, proof, of sake, staking, rewards, uh, so, can, you, just uh, remind, me, where, that, number, comes from, is, that, uh, from, uh, blockchain, fees or, is, that, from, issuance, of, new, ether that's, issuance, of, new, ether, if, you, go down, to, the, bottom, left, of, the, model there's, a, table, that, shows, the, annual keep, going, all, the, way, to, the, bottom there's, a, little, table, right, there, and so last, i, understand, it, we're, going, to, be having, post-merge, about, 1.1, million, new

supply, created, each, year this, is, um, then, multiplied, by, the current, price, per, each, about, 2 to, get, an, additional, three, billion dollars, in, cat, usd, value, um, to, stakers that, obviously, goes, up, as, the, price, of heath, goes, up, in, u.s, dollar, terms, and, of course, the, total, net, supply, for, ether, is going, to, be, negative, and, so, you, can't say, oh, well, they're, just, inflating, away the, value, of, ethereum, to, give, out, cash flows, no they're, actually, giving, out, reward, in

ether, however, the, total, supply, is, going to, go, down, which, is, going, to, be increasing, the, value, of, ether, further right, so, previously, then, when, ryan, and, i have, talked, about, this, on, on, in, other shows, we, talk, about, how, the, issuance, is actually, the, costs, and, that's, where, a little, bit, of, these, models, kind, of, get finicky, when, we, um have, like, these, more, legacy, type, mental models, for, understanding, things, is, like the, uh, when, we, mint, new, ether, that, is, a cost, to, the, network, or, when, you, mint, new currency, that, is, a, cost, to, the, network

but, that's, not, how, you've, organized, it here, because, while, it's, a, maybe, a, cost to, the, monetary, asset, of, the, network for, stakers, it, doesn't, really, matter because, it, actually, just, ends, up, as, cash in, their, pocket, uh, and, so, there's, a little, bit, of, like, a, discrepancy, i, think between, like, just, like, having, a traditional, dcf, model, and, like, how, we apply, it, to, to, crypto, networks, so, when we, take, this, is, coming, from, the perspective, of people, who, are, staking, eth, while, like ethereum, is, issuing, new, ether, which, is, a cost, of, the, network, it's, not, a, cost, of stakers, because, it's, just, going, right

into, their, pockets, is, that, kind, of perspective, you've, had, but, am, i, correct right, you, you're, just, saying, this, new issuance, will, be, offset, by, the, burn, and so, it's, basically, like, just, consider, it revenue, yeah, there's, two, things, there, so um, this, issuance, will, be, by, far, more than, offset, by, the, burn, right, because we're, actually, going, to, have, probably, a negative, issuance, here, however, if, you look, in column, g, and, h, and, rows, 11, and, 12, you can, see, that, i've, actually, created, two different, values, a, little, bit, higher it's, either, ten, thousand, six, hundred