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4th Week of May 2021

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📺 ROLLUP: 4th Week of May

May 28, 2021

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Transcript
00:08

happy friday morning thankless nation david what time is it it is a friday morning weekly roll up time where we take a whole entire week in the crypto cycle and put it right into your brain as fast and densely as possible which is an ambitious endeavor in this industry yet we try to do it every single week and we have fun doing it left and right markets releases news takes we end with what we're excited about no we don't we end with the meme of the week of course every single week so stay tuned for that

00:38

wow a lot going in going on in the bankless nation as always a lot going in crypto this is the last week of may we are excited to get you downloaded david you ready to get started let's do it ryan all right man we gotta start with the market the markets have been crazy these days david absolutely insane crazy uh last week around this time ish did it feel like a bear market to some people it felt like a bear market suddenly are we out of the bear market people got spooked last week people got

01:08

real spooked um like on twitter last weekend david um a lot of anger i would say even about this market like the sudden drop uh anyway we'll get into that let's start with bitcoin what happened yeah from the start of this week at its lowest low bitcoin touched right below three thirty two thousand five hundred dollars and is currently trading just above forty thousand dollars people uh seem to be kind of comfy with bitcoin being at forty thousand dollars people i think are

01:38

signing and breath breath of uh relief um but when bitcoin got below 33 000 people were freaking out um and there's a bunch of news to go along with this which we will be getting into uh but people are starting to get bullish and you know not let's not say too bullish but people are starting to to i think believe that oh yeah this this bull market is not over this is not the start of a bear market uh and so there we are uh bitcoin trading right above 40 thousand dollars uh if it can hold the forty thousand dollar level i think

02:09

that's gonna instill a lot of confidence in the people that got spooked last week and yet some people are still saying this is a dead cat bounce of course we don't know for sure until the market plays out but tell us what's going on in uh ether price yeah ether got [ __ ] wrecked coming down from forty three thousand dollar uh four four thousand three hundred dollars at the top all the way down to seven ten hundred and thirty three dollars which is a big drop off the top over the 11 days between 4 300 and the bottom at 17.33 now trading at 2

02:42

810 so a huge rebound over a thousand dollars off of the bottom just the fact that ether is moving in thousand dollar increments is absolutely insane um and i would say an ether has it has a bigger bounce off the bottom than bitcoin did uh we'll get into looking at the ratio in a second but uh the the bounce off the bottom was definitely an ether's favorite which is pretty interesting i gotta say on sunday people were freaking out david at these these prices like ether price went 66

03:12

with 66 off all-time highs bitcoin was over 50 something like this like it's one of the biggest drops in crypto history if you think that this is normal this is not normal this is a huge drop it is a huge drop but but also uh not unprecedented at least on ether side and again last week we talked about you know 2017 right so this dropped from 420 all the way to like the 130s or so again this kind of feels like that and it's even fitting the uh the rhythm of that where there was a strong recovery

03:43

not back all the way to all-time highs but a fairly quick recovery from those 130s lows of course some people are still thinking this is like dead cat bounce and you know we're gonna go lower still that might play out that might be the case what's your take happiness i mean it would it would be just what would seem to be a really premature end to this bull market but again you're you're the listener is listening to two like critics would call it i don't trade permabulls critters were always bullish

04:15

uh but to some degree there's always so many fundamentals right and and this is going to be a theme for the rest of this market section but like there's still so much energy left in this in this allocate reallocation towards crypto this this is why some people were um some people were angry about this move on um on twitter because on sunday i i said something to the effect of like some of you seem to feel entitled to crypto gains every week of the year that's not how this works and i wasn't trying david to downplays anyone's stress or suffering with a 66

04:49

like lost drop um that is a big deal right but like the reality is also david we just moved to prices of like 45 days earlier right so if you bought more than 45 days ago you were doing okay and if you want to take the like 10x gains you have to be comfortable with days or weeks where you know you're getting these kind of dips 66 dips or more it just goes with the territory so at some level like if you're a unicycler

05:20

this is your first uh bull market you're not used to these things but also get used to them right like the market doesn't owe us anything we're all along for the ride this is what volatility looks like this is what you signed up for when you bought even good blue chip crypto assets like bitcoin and ether this is what happens like it's a commitment to like this is world-changing technology it will absolutely change every single paradigm that we know and love and that's why we're all super bullish on it that's why we there's a thousand x over the next

05:50

like x number of years and you're getting 60 drops every now and then like you don't get 1000x upsides without like you know huge massive pull downs like you're gonna have to take you can get you you've got to take it you just gotta take it also david we're gonna have a bear market someday too sure i want these folks to be ready for that right like we're just not going to go on a straight march to like you know a million dollar bitcoin and like 100k eth like there's going to be some uh some bumps in the road as well anyway people have to get used to this but let's talk about this david but no before we move on ether went from 730

06:24

at the end of january almost almost straight up to 4 000 at the end of may and so like people i think people got really spoiled be behind just number go up it's like oh yeah it literally was up and to the right with very minimal dips and everyone's like oh making money left and right and then all of a sudden we dump 60 if you are making money left and right for months and months and months dips dip's coming like it doesn't work like that like you're getting you're going to get punched in the face yeah just being real of course and you

06:55

got to be in this game for the long term for the long run that's what uh that's what we're about that's what the bankless journey is all about so anyway guys i i know it's painful um you know we'll get through it just uh zoom out expand your time horizon and um don't panic sell right like don't give in to those don't give them those immediate reactions no euphoria without pain all right david let's go to the ether bitcoin ratio this is doing some stuff what's it doing definitely definitely doing some stuff that's for sure uh there was some commentary about how well the eth btc ratio was holding up while

07:26

btc kind of led this downtrend btc started to to dump out and like uh you know trade off sell off sooner than everything else and eat btc held up uh and then the rest of the market started to sell off too and then and then it went from its high of .08 which is really high in each btc terms all the way down to 0.057 which in the grand scheme of things still pretty high and it's still pretty high and but you know each btc does sell off when the market sells off so you know if ethers if bitcoin sneezes

07:58

you know ether ether is sick in bed i would say overall though it didn't really nuke as we've have seen it before and it recovered pretty pretty strongly and so that we hit the high earlier while we were super bullish while everyone was talking about the flipping and flipping was in uh it was at point zero eight now we're at point zero seven um so i would say really strong recovery by the btc ratio still feels like bull market stuff i don't think i don't know you never know could be a dead cat but it still feels like bull market stuff lots of people saying dead

08:30

cats but uh yeah between you and me ryan it's just you yeah it's it really i'm the only guy okay all right ryan watkins uh eat volumes have been exploding recently have surpassed bitcoin volumes this might be some of the reason for that healthy uh eat to bitcoin ratio here so this is actually spot volumes on centralized exchanges and bitcoin has always led from a volume perspective now ethan's taking the lead that's something new we we haven't seen in the past i'm

09:02

not sure if we've ever seen this david right um what does that tell us yeah this is a big narrative shift for for bitcoin right because bitcoin talks about itself as one of the world's most liquid assets right you can make bitcoin buy large bitcoin buys themselves from anywhere in the world anywhere in the time and one of the reasons why that's true is because the bitcoin volume is insane it's always been the largest in crypto ether has been taking the lead since i would say the last two weeks i think is where i'm looking at on this chart where ether has had surpassed bitcoin and trading volumes uh that

09:32

doesn't necessarily mean that ether is more liquid but it definitely over the long term if trading volumes are higher then overall liquidity follows that and so this is what it takes to become a money is significant liquidity globally and that's what we're seeing out of ether in the last two weeks it's also interesting maybe starting to position ether as a reserve currency for crypto which bitcoin has still been king of we you could argue that eth was the reserve asset of defy but bitcoin has still led all of crypto maybe that's changing as well um yeah you have to wonder about

10:04

the how this how this shakes out in the future and this is what the flipping looks like by the way if the flipping is is one big flipping which is represented by like a thousand little flippings and this is one of them yeah i agree that's an important one um okay let's let's talk about d5 for a minute so the first is total locked value down and then up as the market went down and then back up we are sitting at 65 billion total value locked in d5 protocols at this moment what does this mean uh i mean it basically looks like the ether price chart which makes

10:35

sense because everything is super correlated right now more eve uh you just keeps going down though in d5 i wonder if that's going to be a uh a long-term trend that that plays out here and cycle up to oh only still definitely in the short term only in the short term yeah we'll see short term noise okay d5 tokens we measure that by the dpi which is many of the top most blue chip uh d5 tokens out there how's that how's that held up i'm going to scroll to the uh the weekly here except for that one brief moment in time sunday

11:06

night where like defy tokens got like cut by 60 they've rebounded pretty well and they were doing pretty well like kind of resisting the the bitcoin sell-off pretty well and the ether sell-off uh and then the market just took everything for a ride um you know um friday through sunday uh but rebounded down up to 420 dollars relatively again still relatively flat over let's see the the one month period i would say download a little bit how about the three month period ryan

11:36

yeah flat over three months uh in the grand scheme of things but if uh you know coming off of what was a pretty strong high at just like above six hundred dollars yeah year to date we're still definitely up 421 and you're the date that's up almost like a three or four x so not doing too bad on the year what about the dpi to eat ratio that's so important god here we are and i haven't actually seen this chart since the last time we we talked about it but i called the bottom at each dpi at point

12:07

one three holding back and it's barely holding on it barely held on but the bottom is still in on dpi uh and so yeah i almost i almost didn't call it i almost got uh became wrong but so far we'll see we'll see there's some more weeks left in the year david yeah i wonder what happens if we enter sort of another uh defy summer time period but like we certainly haven't yet um ethan has been performing very well defy tokens have yet to follow we'll see what happens in the future

12:38

um all right let's jump to raul paul this is a really interesting take uh you lead with his stake david and i'll throw some comments in yeah i think we should put put the uh the frame of mind of 2008 into the the listener as we read this thread so 2008 was cascading liquidations that like set up the set off the global financial system to the point of just like we need the world's largest institutions to take action or else the world is going to explode that was well the bankers bail out the bankers print money like fix it fix it

13:09

fix it like things are broken things are things are dried up uh so let's use that for context granted d5 is not the world world's largest like industry or an economy so this is microcosm but let's use that as a frame of mind here's what raul says something to get your head around headline a major asset class class crashed 42 in 14 days wiping out a trillion dollars in value in an orgy of liquidations of people up to 100x leverage with very low regulation many tokens fell up to 70 percent

13:40

including unregulated lending and borrowing businesses beneath the headline headline by the way is what people freak out about right right mainstream media i saw as like how can institutions buy uh such a volatile asset this is not ready for mainstream all of these headlines came out right beneath the headlines though so this is what raul says but you know here's the real through line that you should pay attention to crypto had a major major uh v var do you know what that is ryan v a r v variance i guess volatility something i don't know um and and nothing happened

14:13

it had a shock test and nothing happened leverage liquidations was offset by over collateralization over collateralization is fundamentally safe no one was left holding the baby no firm went under the fed didn't need to step in defy didn't break and carried on near normal the markets cleared the markets worked defy apps worked nothing broke that is absolutely fantastic and like nothing broke and it dropped 60 percent in 11 days in 2008 it didn't drop dropped 60

14:43

percent it dropped like 40 over like two weeks or something i i don't know my memories i would you know i was like a kid during that um but the point is it's like it took a harder punch and it came out you know came out swinging it did it did i think people uh overestimate the risk of d5 sometimes not that there isn't smart contract risk and red pull risk and theft less risk but all of this lending at least right now none of it is credit based all of it's over collateralized so that that is a very open honest market you could see

15:14

all of the activity on chain as it happens uh so yeah i mean good for d5 good for crypto for sustaining some of this it shows that it is possible to do so in an open unregulated market maybe this is what open markets really look like if the if if the fed and regulators like peeled off the veneer and stopped moving all of the dials around maybe that's what we're seeing here and he continues saying there was no daisy change of collateral losses stable coins remained stable a few centralized

15:45

exchanges went down for an hour or two no exchange big losses occurred no protocol failed mainly no protocols went down overall just like people get spooked by this 60 and like a lot of people just aren't ready to see the val the value of their investments drop by 60 and that's that's their that's their thing but things worked right and so to some degree there is less risk and things that can take a 60 drop and rebound without completely dying like that's not something we've seen in the world before

16:15

good acid test uh here's another take on this um on defy decentralized exchanges had an absolutely incredible set of days this is actually from may 20th so it's before the sunday the big sell-off but look at these volumes decentralized exchanges david i mean they held up they supported the trading that needed to occur uh for this volatility and they like crushed it in terms of volumes like super impressive over 10 billion in in decentralized exchange volume on uh may 20th i bet

16:47

there's even more on may 23rd the sushi swap plus uniswap dominance is absolutely insane and just the amount of straight up pink on this graph and for the listeners pink means uniswap is really really strong uh i wonder how much extra volume came into d5 because all the centralized exchanges were shut down agreed super interesting anyway uh that that's the story of the dip so far i mean we'll continue to cover it see what happens next week i don't know if we'll be lower or higher no one knows this uh of course but uh we'll continue to keep

17:18

you updated on the markets and this is an interesting take while we're talking about numbers david uh from amine tornado cash maybe you can explain what that is but tornado cash is within 10x of flipping z cash in terms of uh total locked value of eth uh versus market cap of z cash what does this mean to you yeah so z cash is a eth tumbler that's a eth mixer and so you deposit z cash tornado cash yeah oh is that what i yeah i meant to say tornado cash tornado cash is a

17:49

mixer right and they also are working on uh dye and usdc mixers but right now just eth uh and so you deposit lots of one or ten or one hundred ether into tornado cache and then you wait because you're waiting for other people to also do the same and when you deposit it you get this note right you get a note back which is a just a cryptographic hash and you kind of you save that on your computer you save that not on the ethereum blockchain you save that in meat space right then then you wait for other people to come in put their ether into the tumbler

18:21

you allow entropy to happen so you just are patient then you come back with your note at a later date and time and then that note is a right to claim an equivalent amount of what you deposited into the tumbler and you can send that to a different address elsewhere and so it's a it's a privacy mechanism right so one of the biggest pain points about ethereum and d5 is that like if you need to pay someone or transfer money to someone or just like if you need to do something like you no privacy there's no problem and you have that with cash with cash money you have privacy in the real world exactly right and so like uh if i

18:53

if i pay you on on for my wallet right you can go and check out my wallet and see what else i've been doing in the world of crypto right it's just like giving you complete uh inspection abil inspection ability into my personal finances and we don't like that uh and so what tornado cache does is it lets you put eth in and receive like a note like think think of literally a piece of paper but just like in digital form like a note uh and you can i can pass that around and that just passes around in meat space uh but then you can come back to tornado cache and redeem that for actual ether send it to a different

19:23

wallet and uh you don't you cut off that connection back to your og wallet zcash does a similar thing except zcash is an l1 it is a it's a native currency to the zcash ecosystem and they have similar transaction capacities but the difference is if zcas is you know something non-native to ethereum and so really the through line here is is privacy an l1 asset or is privacy an application in defy i've always been of the opinion and i'm pretty sure ryan you agree with me that privacy is an app not

19:53

an asset uh privacy is something that you can bestow into assets all assets not just one specific asset and so what amine is saying is that tornado cash has 2 million 200 million dollars of eth deposited into it versus z cash which which has a two billion dollar market cap and so what he's saying is he's keeping an eye on the um the tvl of tornado cash in ether terms versus the total market cap of z cash which is an l1 uh and this is a really good comparison and i expect tvl

20:24

and tornado cash to pass to pass zcash over the long term yeah i mean for for those who weren't here in like 2017 2018 uh this was very much an open question right there was very much the the idea that we would if we wanted to have privacy in uh crypto we would need privacy chains essentially completely separate l1s and so the valuations of many of these privacy chains were based on this and this looks like ethereum is just kind of swallowing up the privacy use

20:55

case and if there is a flipping tornado cache to zcash i think there's like some conclusive evidence that privacy is better off as an app not as a whole separate of layer one nothing against zcash i mean that team is fantastic they're doing great work um putting out pioneers of research pioneers of cryptography but like we're just putting on kind of an investor hat and sort of a thesis hat of how this space shapes up and it looks like ethereum is like swallowing up some of these apps so we'll continue to monitor that the thing

21:26

is in this also talk is a really awesome tailwind behind ether the asset right because not only is ether the asset ultrasound money but if it can match or exceed z cash in market cap inside of tornado cash it's also ultra private money right like literally ether gets all of the features uh and that's why we're all bullish on ethers because every single app that def that defy comes to build benefits ether the most yeah absolutely okay so uh let's look at this too this is an interesting tweet i thought was worth pulling up wi-fi trades at a price to earnings ratio p e

21:59

ratio used in stocks of 12 currently 12 with analyzed annualized earnings of 85 million based on may data price to earnings of 12. david you don't see that anywhere anywhere like in capital assets nowhere even in the normal stock market 12 is low what about a high growth industry like ethereum and d5 i remember in 2017 we were all talking about how prices got so far ahead of like their p e ratios people with p e ratios of like these

22:30

stupid like 2017 tokens were like in the bajillions and yfi which is generating a ton of revenue is sitting at 12. like what it's just it's just a reminder that the we have real capital assets this cycle that are producing like real revenues and profits that you can easily track on chain totally different than 2017. now some people will say yeah but david um like these earnings are based on um you know token valuations elsewhere right and so like yields

23:01

coming from all of this token farming incentivized farming and that is temporal that will dry up at some point in the future um and like that might be true right like i certainly understand kind of that that take uh but yet we're still at 12. like if you're going to compare this to you know something similar that happened in dot com where yahoo had a crazy valuation it's based on advertising generated from all the other dot coms it was all a big bubble anyway at that time yahoo was not trading at 12

23:31

p e ratio it's trading the hundreds if not the thousands so i don't know it doesn't feel like a bubble to me and these are real capital assets these are undis undiscovered assets if you ask me pretty impressive and importantly uh yearn is putting on its balance sheet both its own equity right the yfi token but also eth right so it's a p e ratio of 12 for ether not for dollars right and so like that hits different at least in my mind yeah and we're going to get to that and

24:02

it takes a wi-fi governance proposal um that is going to do that let's let's take a look at this from david mihal this is uh money movers which blockchain is settling more value we've got ethereum here now surpassing bitcoin uh and i think this is just stable coins david so stable coin value on ethereum has now passed bitcoin value settled uh on bitcoin for the first time since d5 oh i see i see right okay so what's

24:32

going on here is not bitcoin's uh stable coin settlements because they're used there used to be and prep still is omni on bitcoin transferring stable coins what this is saying is stable coins being transferred on ethereum is equal to volume the volume of btc being transferred on bitcoin wow that's crazy yeah it's crazy and it's huge like it's this is very much ethereum becoming the kind of the settlement layer for the world i will say although i will also say it's not quite an apples to apples comparison because we make this

25:03

distinction with bitcoin on bitcoin is a bare asset it's completely trustless right stable coins on ethereum some of them are maybe like liquidy the protocol we talked to earlier but some are usdc and tether and their settlement doesn't just happen on ethereum it also happens in meat space so an interesting comparison i think also not quite apples to apples but maybe yet another flipping interesting i kind of think that's beside the point um i said beside the point of this particular take this particular take is

25:34

that ethereum is being used to settle value we can talk about the nature of that value and like the banklessness of that value being settled but i actually think that's a separate conversation to some degree it's just like dollar settled versus dollar seller i actually think we'll get into some of that conversation uh when we talk about um like simple layer twos that are popping up because i see a lot of this transaction settlement activity for low trust stable coins or for less trustless stable coins might start to happen on layer twos anyway we'll get to that all right guys we're going to be back with the hot releases next but first we want

26:04

to thank the sponsors who made this episode possible ave is a borrowing and lending protocol on ethereum and just recently released ave version 2 which has a ton of cool new features that makes using ave even more powerful with ave you can leverage the full power of d5 money legos yield and composability all in one application on ave there are a ton of assets that you can deposit in order to gain yield and all of those same assets can also be borrowed from the protocol if you have

26:35

deposited collateral here you can see me getting a 200 usdc loan against my portfolio of a number of different defy tokens and eth i'll choose a variable interest rate because it's a lower rate than the stable interest rate option but i could choose the stable interest rate option if i wanted to lock that interest rate in permanently one of ave's v2 features is the ability to swap collateral without having to withdraw your assets trade them on unit swap and then deposit them back into ave ave does all of this for you all in one seamless

27:05

transaction so you don't have to repay loans in order to change the collateral you have backing them check out the power of ave at ave dot com that's aave.com balancer is defy's most powerful automated market maker typical amms just have two tokens inside of one liquidity pool which can lead to fractured liquidity across the many pairs in d-pi with balancer you can access the full power of multiple tokens inside of one single amm which unlocks an entirely new playing field of possibility this makes balancer an awesome building block for

27:35

so many different use cases balancer pools can make asset indexes but instead of paying fees to portfolio managers balancer lets you collect fees from traders who use your portfolio for liquidity additionally bouncer smart pools could be programmed to have properties that change according to predetermined rules such as changing the swap fee based on market conditions or even liquidity bootstrapping pools which can help you launch and distribute your token with day one liquidity at bankless we used a liquidity bootstrapping pool to sell our bat t-shirts to much success bouncer v2 brings powerful new features

28:05

that makes your money work even harder for you in v2 idle tokens are capable of generating yield and defy without sacrificing liquidity in the pool to top things off balancer is reimbursing all gas costs with valve rewards meaning that all your gas costs are returned to your wallet with the balancer governance token balancer's mission is to become the primary source of liquidity in d5 by providing the most flexible and powerful platform for asset management and decentralized exchange dive into the balancer pools at pools.balancer.exchange here we go guys it is release time david

28:37

we gotta start by talking about layer two layer two summer layer two just like it is the night before layer two and all through the house it feels like if everyone is stirring and waiting for it everyone's talking about when's it coming when's it coming i feel like it's actually about to hit us like a tidal wave and let's talk about why that might be the case the first is arbitram okay launching maybe today today as you're listening to this not the day of recording the day of you listening to

29:08

this the day of you listening to it may 28th was supposed to be the day of course we have arbitram on state of the nation on tuesday so we'll get the full update there make sure you tune into that but why is arbitrary interesting david uh because it is one of the two big l2s that uh is really true to the values and ethos of ethereum right so we got optimism and we got our arbitrarium there are other l2s as well but those are really the the two um pioneers in the world of cryptography that are extending the base layer security of

29:40

ethereum into the l2s with uncompromising decentralization and security uh and there's about to be in my in my opinion a just rush to grab new real estate right like we've already seen applications deploy on a polygon of a sushi swap really competing with each other to get like tvl and liquidity inside of polygon and polygon isn't even really the complete version of l2s that we all have been talking about for the past like six months that's optimism and arbitrary and arbitrary launch is tomorrow for dev

30:11

developers and there's just going to be a race to get in and start deploying on arbitrom and the the magnitude of how this is going to change the user experience for the general defy user is can't be understated everything is about to change everything is about to change yeah i agree with that so this take a new scaling project has entered this sidechain chat arbitrary is not a side chain interestingly enough so coindesk that not quite right um arbitrarum is what we would call a layer two that means it is secured by the ethereum maynet uh similar settlement guarantees

30:43

and economically secured by eth the asset first one of these to launch with an evm so that means all of the d5 projects you know and love on ethereum mainnet can be fairly seamlessly ported over to arbitram and i think they're not just launching like hey we're live they're going to be launching with a whole bunch of projects so what and we'll find out more i guess tomorrow or today maybe for the listener and then also on tuesday when we talk to them but this was interesting from hayden adams the unit swap community has

David Hoffman

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Co-owner at Bankless. Optimistic storyteller of frontier technology.

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