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3rd Week of November, 2021`
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📺 ROLLUP: 3rd Week of November
November 19th, 2021
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Transcript
thankless nation happy third week of november david what time is it it's the friday bankless weekly roll-up time the time where we try and roll up an entire week of crypto which is always an ambitious endeavor but we have fun doing it regardless ryan are you ready to roll up the week i'm ready man hey i like your shirt by the way david it looks like we're doing the the red black combo yep red black shirt totally yeah wait is that a full spider-man uniform do you have the pants no no no wait a second peter parker yeah people always tell me i look like
um uh toby maguire so i'm just running taking that and running with it the original spider-man toby mcguire yes what's your favorite spider-man by the way oh peter parker excuse me excuse me toby mcguire toby toby mcguire i look like him that's what people tell me of course he's my favorite new guy is really good what's his name um oh yeah yeah why can't i think of his name it's really good to you i know who you're talking about but i don't know his name yeah all right all right sean adams so toby mcguire we've got some main events to cover this week one is constitution dao david adao is buying
the us constitution what's up with that we gotta cover that also adidas is issuing nfts now a poet badge uh jimmy fallon just bought a board ape or so i mean so i'm told and crypto.com bought entire no they didn't buy it i think they put their name on an entire arena which seems to be the trend among crypto banks so guys we are going to cover all of those things going to be a hot week in crypto as it always is david we should talk about permissionless because i believe new tickets just went on sale you recall every two weeks new tickets
go on sale they're issued they get a little bit more expensive every time so you want to get in early this is going to be the i think conference event defy conference event of uh 2022 and i said d5 it's not just d5 it's it's the metaverse as well it's you know regulation defy like we're covering it all if you are bankless listener if you're a bankless member i should say premium member you get a discount on the subscription it's a 20 discount we'll include a link in the show notes to that david are you excited about this conference i know you've been going to a lot of conference conferences lately but
what's what's special about this one oh yeah no all of these conferences that i'm going to are just practice for going to permissionless in may i'm like working my way up to it right yeah so yeah permission list in may in miami or yeah in south beach miami uh excuse me palm beach in in florida oh my oh florida's the same uh it's gonna be a ton of fun i'm really looking forward to the party that we're throwing we still have to get that ball rolling with planning that thing uh may is going to come around quick so you got to get your tickets because you got to come me and ryan are uh unless we find some reason to meet
beforehand this will be where me and ryan shake hands so if you want to watch that like yeah i might come to youth denver but but maybe this will be the one okay we'll see we'll see uh anyway it'll be historic certainly biggest d5 conference of the year david let's also talk about this we are doing a new office hours this is for bankless premium members first one starts today as you're listening to this on friday so we're going to be hanging out in the inner circle discord and answering questions uh kind of ask me anything style and a whole bunch of bankless members have been already asking questions and these are pretty tricky
dude like uh like this is not the 101 level questions right these are like you know 300's level 400's level some of them i'm curious like somebody asked uh what our bags are yeah i want to hear what your bags are david hoffman i think that that's gonna be the theme of this ama is like really technical hard questions that i'm actually gonna have to do my homework on and then what are my bags that's gonna be the two types of questions that we see yeah that'll be really fun though uh the last thing we gotta mention is our friends at opolis are doing something
super cool david tell them what opolis is while i click the link here yeah opolis is dao infrastructure by a doubt so we always talk about how you can go work for dallas nowadays just hop into the discord start contributing one of the unsolved problems with living a dow life is things like health care benefits or all the other benefits that you would get at a typical centralized company well opolis is a co-op a co-op dao of sorts that is providing all of these the same basic employment services for people that work for dao's so you can get health care payroll services all
through opolis and just like all the other dows if you use opolis you become an owner in opulus and so if you actually sign up before the end of the year and choose to get your payroll paid by opolis you get a 1 000 work token that's the token for opolis bonus along with a thousand bank tokens as well so if you want to sign up with opolis there's a link in the show notes where you can chat with a membership steward today and get some of your typical web to legacy infrastructure working for you in web3 guys this is really cool the future of
work is the self-sovereign worker basically and this is what opolis allows also david i didn't know this but on the payroll you can get paid in crypto wanna get paid in eth yes you know some well you can with opolis so really cool that they are providing this so make sure you check that out bankless listeners all right david you ready for markets time let's talk about ping bitcoin still on the top but it's been a sad week for bitcoin we are down what how much are we down yeah recording david yeah we had some some good weeks
leading up to this one so it's no surprise that we had a bit of a pullback we started this week at 60 000 uh hit a high of sixty six thousand dollars but currently are at fifty seven thousand dollars and eight hundred uh so down about eleven percent on the week so yeah eleven percent that's a not a small number sad music playing right now is it saying a similar story yeah yeah start of the week at 42 000 hit a high of 4 800 and is currently clocking in at just
above 4 000 we were very briefly below four thousand dollars about an hour ago before we started recording right now we're at four thousand and fifty six dollars overall down thirteen and a half percent on the week allow me sir to zoom out may i zoom out right uh please do please do let's look at it on the monthly we're up on the monthly we're up a little bit on the monthly so we started the month at uh 3 800 still up on the monthly so you know if if you told us we would be about here a month from now that would be okay
let's take a look at the three month time period so i guess we're up on the three month remember all crab season all summer we were basically in into like i guess uh into uh september we were kind of hanging in this 3k range you know and under 3k felt a little bit like sad a little bit bearish we were just hugging this 3k line now we're at 4k so i mean still like we got a lot to be thankful for going into the thanksgiving holidays two weeks ago people were just like please give me 4k please give me 4k
then we go up to 4 800 and now we're back down to 4k and people like oh i'm so bearish yeah it's like this the year to date graph that you have up right now like it's pretty choppy but there is a very clear up and to the right trend for the entire last 12 months right and so again just short term chop and i think if you want the big picture story we had ben cohen cowan on our podcast on tuesday of this week and um he kind of you know he's the chart expert he's the cryptographer as he said he charts this out far into the
future so if you're looking to get a hold of where we are in the cycle the fourth cycle make sure you check out that episode as well yeah that's really fun episode two of course let's talk about the eath bitcoin uh ratio because that's something we talked about with ben as well uh where are we right now uh marginally down on the week i believe last week we're at point zero seven two we are clocking in at point zero seven so just down john smidge on the week down a smidge on the week not a big story there but we continue to monitor that uh d5 paul uh d5 pulse is telling
us total locked value in d5 is still above 100 billion dollars not bad for sort of a bearish week we're at 106 billion anything else you want to say about that yeah maker continuing to have that dominance as the number one uh most locked uh defy app uh clocking at 16.7 percent of all value locked in d5 yeah that's pretty cool uh d5 pulse index so this is a list of your defy tokens so looks like defy took a big tumble it looks like a big ooh frying
that's is that down 18 almost 19 yeah start of the week about 420 dollars nice uh now is at 320 down a hundred dollars yeah almost 20 on the week what happened to d5 i guess you know what it's still if you zoom out on the month it's about the same as it was a month ago it's just because we thought we were going back into a d5 season momentarily and then this week told us otherwise absolutely yeah yeah big rug by the defy tokens this last month like big big up then
followed by big down sad story for defy tokens lately but this tells the saddest story of them all david you know this you know this graph very well you know what's coming at this point in the show you try to strip it out of the agenda i put it back in sir you don't really do that it's okay this is uh ryan's talking about of course the dpi over ether the dpi ratio which over the last november it's been flat uh so that that point zero eight is the new floor um well we don't know how strong that floor is the last time i talked about the floor i was wrong about that uh but
yeah so it's it's been flat for november clocking in at 0.08 a little bit down on the week wow it's it's down just like we know we know it's down you know it just keeps going down uh let's talk about the bed though so this is our combo of a third bitcoin a third eth and a third uh dpi so what is this showing us this week it's town yeah it's down it is down yeah down it start of the week at 200 clocking in currently at 160 down 16 on the week yup sadness sad music playing down down
down but let's look at the happier side of things david one contract that is open seat just clocked in 100k eath that it has burnt you know we monitor the amount of youth being burnt on kind of a weekly monthly basis this is one single application on top of ethereum of course like the most the largest nft application to date and that application alone open c has burned over a hundred thousand eth supply pretty insane to see these
numbers yeah and it's crazy that's just one application granted if you add in uniswap v2 and v3 you actually get uh a hundred and eight thousand eath burned if you combine those two things um but again the point is one single contract burned over a hundred thousand each which is just crazy i think it's interesting to look at this leaderboard by apps right over the the full time span so what what are the big product market fits for ethereum today right well the first is nfts you see that in openc um this you know the second is uniswap as you mentioned that's maybe
even greater than open suite so we're doing nfts we're doing a lot of trading uh the third is actually eth trans transfers so we're sending eth back and forth to one another eth the pristine collateral the uh the native currency of ethereum the money of the ethereum economy is actually burning a lot of eth itself and then the uh the fourth is a staple coin is tether i think this shows us like if you want to encapsulate what are the product market fit use cases for uh crypto to date it's like nfts d5
predominantly trading uh eth transfers each payments and stable coins that kind of sums it up so it makes sense that we'd see those applications here actually i'm not sure uh i'm gonna be uh offer a counterpoint because i actually don't think that that is the perfect proxy for showing product market fit because uh collateralized borrowing and lending is a huge product that defy offers that clearly has demand and that's actually something that doesn't burn a lot of eth by the nature of what it is because it doesn't just doesn't require a lot of transactions right so you lock up a
bunch of eth one time you borrow like uscc or die one time and then you go and do stuff but like that's a huge use case there's a lot of value like imagine how much tvl is in defy over 100 billion dollars but that doesn't necessarily actually create the incentive to make transactions on ethereum in the way that trading and payments do uh payment trading and payments is just simply things that happen in very large quantities on a reoccurring basis and therefore burns a lot of eth yeah that's a great point david i guess it doesn't cover everything certainly it doesn't cover all of those uh total locked value
collateral type use cases in this metric um let's also talk about this this why don't you read out this tweet it's another crazy metric that we don't often talk about yeah for the listeners there's a graph here and the tweet says crazy metric that i haven't heard anyone talk about eip1559 has now burned more tokens than ethereum miners currently hold miners generally hold the assets that they are mining because they generally believe in the things that they're mining rather than just being pure profit um but as you can see the amount of community ether being burnt is just
like skyrocketing in relation to actual miners being holding on to ether uh and so it's just kind of a cool comparison cool metric um this is it feels like forced huddling by the network itself right like all that orange amount of ether being burnt is like ether ethereum itself the protocol putting ether in the piggy bank for a rainy day right and this is really what eip1559 is it's it's locking in revenue so that it makes ether more scarce so that when it becomes time to actually subsidize security um we actually have like
reserves to actually subsidize security for of course this also means gas fees continue to go up so average gas fees i believe like the month of october and into november were like higher than they ever have been so people transacting on mainnet or feeling the scree the squeeze for sure and that's why hopefully layer two uh is coming and i you know i believe it's coming we're seeing it coming but um hopefully it gets here quickly we have some layer two things to talk about so we will dive into that subject later well let's talk about when's the best time actually to do an
ethereum transaction on mainnet yeah this is a fantastic fun little fun little fun fact which are my favorite kind of facts uh this is uh mark andre dumas who i believe still works at maker dow a really big data guy and he says ethereum base fee which is the gas price is on average eight percent higher at the top of the hour so you should schedule your transactions accordingly meaning that the last 10 minutes of an hour uh like you know 250 to 259 is actually there's eight percent uh lower gas fees on average and
if you want to click that little uh that image ryan you can you can see that the data here apparently there's just a surge in demand in the first like 15 to 20 minutes that tapers off for the rest of the hours so that's an interesting little tidbit people have their transactions scheduled for the top of the hour for some reason that's kind of weird huh yeah i wonder why that happens uh but you know what i read this report this week that was you know bitcoin stock to flow uh model that um has been quite popular in terms of predicting bitcoin's price somebody actually put together a
flows based price projection for ethereum which is super interesting and this is the graph they came up with this is flows based on a price model with and without eip-1559 so the without eip-1559 is shaded in this red portion the with eip 1559 is shaded in this blue portion and then they went in so far as to estimate what this looks like kind of like a long-term theoretical price model on a on a flows based calculation post the
merge so when issuance on the proof of work chain goes away drops from like four four to quarter percent all the way to zero and all we have is issuance on um the proof of stake chain which is like also of course um you have to subtract the ip1559 and the feed burn for that what's this going to look like and the model tries to produce predict pricing and it predicts pricing as of like july let's say the merge happens in july of next year which might be about right right it feels like maybe
not too conservative it feels probably about right anyway price for july 2022 uh should be oscillating around 65 000 eth at that point in time and this again is if you just use a a stock to flow kind of you know theoretical pricing model which it takes into account all of the new supply that is getting injected into the market you kind of model that out so what's super interesting to me david
is just this is still another is yet another indication that it's not priced in okay like the merge proof of stake everything that's happening on ethereum i still feel like whether we're at four thousand eight three thousand eight five thousand eight eight thousand eight ten thousand each maybe it's still not priced in i mean like you guys can read this uh read this report for yourself and see what you think there's some other interesting graphics from it as well including this one which is actually uh one of my favorite most
bullish charts for for going bankless this is the amount of ether on exchanges and over the last 16 months there's been a 36 decrease on ether of ether on centralized exchanges and it's going somewhere it's going to staking contracts going in smart contracts uh going in you know d5 protocols is going off of exchanges and that is a good thing for for bank list so i don't know what's your take do you think this stuff is priced in or or are we like i mean
why why isn't the market reacting to this because you know somebody told me the other day hey ryan none of this is secret information right what you guys are saying like people know that the merge is happening people know that there's this supply shock i mean it's not just bankless saying this now it's it's others who are saying it it's it's a well-known public fact has the market priced this in yet or not um oh i don't think what the market has ever priced anything about ethereum in like what ethereum is it's so hard to like completely understand and like yeah a lot of people are talking about like the
whole modular blockchain how ethereum over its time will ultimately become a platform that sells its space to other blockchains not to other humans or individuals or funds or whatever uh and like that's the most sustainable form of revenue of all time when you're like other blockchains are your primary clients um and like maybe people look at that 65 000 ether price and they just scoff and like that's too ridiculous that's too crazy why are you in crypto in the first place if that's what you think this is what our industry is like you
know crypto yeah like have you been here how long have you been here exactly we're here for the craziness right uh and so the craziness is commonplace i mean it would be it would be crazier to expect not crazy things yes that is true this is absolutely true and like the humans are not very good at understanding or thinking in exponentials um and so like you it it takes some time to wrap wrap your head around oh this isn't a 2x game this is a 10x game right uh and this isn't happening over a decade this is happening over like one to three years
uh and so like when i see the sixty five thousand dollar eighth price tag i'll be shocked just like the next person just because it's a shocking number but like it's also kind of expected well and this this model specifically is kind of interesting because it's just based on issuance right it's based on you hold demand constant and then you decrease issuance by the amount it's about to decrease and you model that out and you see what happens and this is what happens right so like unless demand spikes all the way down this is kind of going to be
what what happens guys like i i don't know i mean i guess we'll have to see nothing is certain but it does feel very underpriced to me but david let's let's go back back down memory lane we were talking about previous markets and and previous runs uh bertie nomnom.eve put together like apparently this person has been taking a screenshot of coinmarketcap.com for the past like five or six years and putting them together and what's super interesting here's november 2016.
look at look at the market caps here that's crazy let me read some of this out bitcoin 12 billion dollars in market cap only 12 billion dollars what is it now it's well over a trillion right yeah it's well over trillion yeah an individual bitcoin clocking in at 747 ether nine dollars and 53 cents this is 2016 what were you doing in 2016 at this time uh working in social services really yeah this is like and then okay ripple
clocking into number three and then monero ethereum classic dash auger nem made safe coin okay which ones are still left standing i guess litecoin is litecoin even in the top ten it's not in the top ten no i think it's we had a crazy year in 2017. look at the the market cap increase uh 124 billion dollars for bitcoin ethereum number two and then bitcoin cash number three yeah we still have ripple there still litecoins do you remember dash do you remember iota
2017. we'll run monero's still there neo nem like what are these things do they even exist anymore no idea neo is like the um the ethereum of china yeah the ethereum of china like forgetting that like these are based on the internet not domiciled in countries do you remember iota 2017 do you remember um something called a dag yeah i i i the dag trade was one of my biggest trade i was i made my first big trade on iota and i rotated that right into brave blocks and
those were my two big wins of 2017. i remember ray blocks right obviously yeah that is memory now brandon has nano yeah dash was the interesting privacy coin at the time it was masternodes and privacy coins and that was like the future um none of those things are are now a big deal but here's uh 2018 very sad you know 2018 was in the depths here look at 2018 chart it's bitcoin first not ethereum second ripple number two that bull came in second for a brief moment in time yeah and in hindsight like that
was like a great bottom signal then stellar yeah then still bitcoin cash and then eos our friend eos jumping on the scene litecoin tether cardano making an appearance monero we got 2019 cardano still in the currently in the same state that it was all the way back then really yeah are you talking about from a developer perspective david are you talking about from a position perspective developer like the state of the blockchain hasn't changed since since like 2017 or whatever bitcoin ethereum xrp this is uh this is
2019. here is uh 2020. bitcoin ethereum tether finally some changes yeah chain link makes it up there polka dot makes it up there but other than that still kind of the same thing and then here we are now here we are just last week um bitcoin number one ethereum number two binance coin first time it's making an appearance tether still on there of course solana first time at number five making an appearance cardano still hanging out there xrp goes from number number two three years ago uh four years ago no three
years ago all the way down to number seven but still in the top ten so crazily in the top ten yeah polka dot then we have usdc which makes uh sense and then dogecoin you know it's weird it's weird to see dogecoin in the top ten like why is a meme in the top ten but then if you look back at all the other years that we just look back on like oh okay like i guess by comparison like dogecoin is welcome to be in the top ten so what are the takeaways from this okay it's like one of my takeaways is just like um look at the things that have stayed the same and look at the things that have changed um the things that have
stayed the same are bitcoin ethereum like decentralization number two right the most decentralized money protocols still holding the number one and number two slots i feel like under that it's like it's like bitcoin it's churn ether and all the narratives right like all the narrative friends that you bring along with you every single like bull or bust cycle xrp is the banking coin like uh cardano i don't know what the narrative is has a partnership with africa like stuff like that i mean you
could make the argument instead of eos we have solana some people might say that right it's like i realize solana solana is different than eos it's kind of a different thing but it's a similar narrative it feels the same niche it feels the same it's a similar narrative uh cardano's still there it's just just hanging on by the pure willpower of charles hodgson i guess uh polka dot another kind of eath killer but like we've seen many of these narratives play out in previous cycles just the uh the players tend to change but the things that that stay the same are like bitcoin and ethereum uh any
other lessons from this for us uh i'm looking forward to what this looks like in 2022 yeah that's the that's the one that's hardest to predict of course uh metamask doing big things they i just hit 21 million i believe monthly active users or 21 million sorry metamask users total which is absolutely insane and that that is monthly active users uh so congrats to metamask for that and the 21 as in 21 million bitcoins they kind of just made a show out of the 21 million ah that's why that's why i
was talking about anyway yeah okay that makes sense what's this david this is hayden adams talking about a new pool yeah so this is pretty cool you know what v3 uh launched with three fee tiers one percent point three percent and point one percent i think and then uniswap governance actually added in a fourth feet here of point zero one percent which is specifically meant for the most stablest of stable coins right uh and so the point zero one percent usdc to usdt pool is currently doing a hundred
million dollars in volume on only 15 million dollars worth of stablecoin lockup which is absolutely crazy just the capital efficiency there is absolutely insane uh and this is this is in my mind stable coins the fees for stable coin swaps just being collapsed to zero it was basically going to be free to swap stable coins uh point zero one percent is basically nothing uh and it's gone from i think if you scroll down ryan and i think this was a quote tweet uh maybe it wasn't uh this went from the the stable coin trading pairs
on one inch which is a dex aggregator it went from like i think ten percent uniswap dominated volume and then probably the other the other dominant volume was curve and i think it went up to something like 95 percent unit swap volume so like this after this move after that after the adoption of this point zero one percent fee tier stable coin pool so unit swap starting to start starting to like corner the stablecoin swapping market what's interesting here though is like does this worry you if you're a uni holder right because that's less fees that you can potentially uh extract
through through your governance token right um it's like it's more it's more volume it's way more volume so yes it's it's one tenth the fees but i i think it's roughly 10 times the volume interesting so you kind of the argument is you make it up in volume there and i guess that the big thing here is like how can other exchanges maybe more centralized exchanges compete with those kind of margins right unit swap can do that because it's a protocol that's exactly right
guys we are going to be right back with some of the hot releases for the week but before we do we want to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible matcha everyone's favorite decks aggregator has just launched an open beta for gasless trading so if you're trading more than five thousand dollars in common eath and wrapped bitcoin pairs then your gas fees on matcha are free and that's why you should be using matcha matcha routes your orders across all the various defy exchanges on ethereum polygon binance smart chain and gives you the best possible price
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dot f-i follow alcamix on twitter at alcomixfi and join the discord to keep up to date with alchemix v2 and to get involved in governance all right guys we are back with the releases of the week the first is this polygon continuing to add solutions to its network just added polygon midden midden is a stark-based evm compatible roll-up it's really cool so you might have heard the term zk roll up that's effectively what this is and it's general purpose so it's evm compatible
polygon is adding that to its its arsenal it's like tool kit of uh different solutions along with we've talked about polygon uh nightfall of course it has this proof of stake chain right now uh hermes is another zk type of solution it's just added this midan apparently is like open source as well so um it's from a former facebook zk researcher who led the development of of winterfell which is a facebook project uh and what's cool about this david is i
feel like polygon has long committed to being more than like just side chain technology and now it's in moving into kind of a roll-up uh sort of design and now it's definitively moving in that direction in big ways i love to see this yeah polygon proving to just be an absolute gargantuan in this space kind of gobbling up every single uh you know scaling startup that that they can buy um so just absolutely crushing it on the bd front yeah and uh we'll have to find out a bit more about this uh this midan solution