📺 Is The World Collapsing? | Jim Bianco

hey, bankless, nation, welcome, to, another state, of, the, nation, episode, this, time we're, diving, deep, into, macro, markets there's, been, a, downturn, recently, david, i don't, know, if, you've, noticed, it, getting pretty, ugly, out, here, macro, has, taken center, stage, yet, again, i, think, people are, wondering, how, is, this, going, to affect, crypto, markets, in, 2022, so, we brought, on, jim, bianco, to, talk, about, the macro, landscape, what, are, we, going, to dive, into, in, this, episode, david, and we're, going, to, talk, about, the, changing stance, of, the, federal, reserve, apparently the, fed, is, uh, taking, things, a, little, bit

more, seriously, taking, inflation, a, little bit, more, seriously, not, just, rising interest, rates, but, going, from quantitative, easing, to, quantitative tightening, uh, let's, unpack, what, that actually, is, because, again, every, time, i hear, the, words, quantitative quantitative easing, and, tightening, i'm, like, okay, i, i knew, that, for, about, the, five, seconds that, it, lasted, in, my, brain, but, then, like it, just, flies, right, back, out, uh, so, what is, that, and, why, is, it, different, than just, fighting, inflation, and, what, does that, mean, for, the, different, types, of markets, of, the, world, the, bond, markets the, stock, markets, and, the, crypto, markets

how, does, risk, on, assets, how, are, they going, to, behave, differently, versus, risk off, assets, and, a, bunch, of, other questions, there's, also, some, news, that, uh we, talked, to, jim, before, the, show, that, he really, wants, to, talk, about, with, uh microsoft, buying, activision, blizzard, for some, crazy, billion, numbers, of, dollars, uh and, how, they, are, just, like, facebook, are also, trying, to, co-op, the, metaverse, so, a number, of, different, topics, here, but first, leading, with, the, whole, inflation fed, conversation, yeah, i, really, want, to know, if, like, first, of, all, the, world, is going, to, collapse, due, to, inflation, okay that, like, that's, somewhere, in, my, mind

space, and, and, also, like, is, crypto, going to, collapse, due, to, this, quantitative tightening, this, interest, rate, reduction or, the, interest, rate, uh, increase, going into, the, year, so, we'll, have, to, see, what all, of, this, means, we'll, unpack, that, with jim, also, guys, before, we, get, in, just, uh an, announcement, from, our, friends, at, alto ira, i'm, gonna, get, tax, nerdy, with, you guys, you're, the, perfect, one, to, do, it ryan, okay, the, attacks, optimize, or, as you've, told, me, before, david, all, right, so i've, had, this, cool, thing, uh, since, you know, as, soon, as, i, found, out, about, it, in crypto, that, this, was, possible, it's

called, a self-directed, ira, okay, and, this, is, a brilliant, for, retail, investors, in, the, us this, is, a, way, to, actually, have, a, a, tax advantage, you, don't, pay, any, taxes, until you, retire a, count, that, is, denominated, in, crypto okay, and, so, like, any, of, you, guys, who have, tracked, your, taxes, for, crypto, and know, what, to, pay, an, asset, is, you, know how, much, you, pay, when, you, go, from, like bitcoin, to, ether, that's, taxable, a taxable, event, not, so, inside, of, an, ira account, so, i, think, everybody, in, crypto who's, on, the, bankless, journey, should, set

one, of, these, up, if, you, live, in, the, u.s uh, and, if, you, want, to, get, super, advanced there's, there's, another, tool, for, you which, is, you, might, have, a, 401k, from, a previous, employer, okay, so, you, work, for, a while, somewhere, you, you, put, away, some fun, snow, 401k, you, can, actually, take, that 401k, and, you, can, convert, it, you, can, roll that, over, turn, it, into, crypto, all, right and, then, you, can, start, saving, uh, your retirement, dollars, in, crypto, some, of you guys, aren't, thinking, of, retirement, yet but, like, are, you, thinking, of, not, having to, pay, your, taxes, because, that's

something, you, can, do, with, one, of, these structures, and, what, what, we, found there's, lots, of, different, solutions, on the, market, but, the, easy, button, if, you're kind, of, lazy, right, and, you, just, want that, easy, button, just, something, that works, okay, david, might, be, that, guy, um also, ira, gives, it, to, you, because, it's completely, integrated, with, coinbase right, so, that, means, they, have, 125 different, crypto, assets, you, get, set, up just, a, few, minutes, uh, and, they, it's, a ten, dollar, investment, minimum, okay, so you, could, start, at, any, amount and, again, you, can, put, away, as, much, as, 6k

per, year, i, think, that's, the, current, uh ira, laws, or, roll, over, your, existing, 401k they, take, about, 1.5, percent, on, that, uh well, worth, it, from, my, perspective, just to, get, you, the, easy, button, to, make, it happen, so, if, you, want, to, figure, out, if you, want, to, learn, more, about, that, and get, your, account, set, up, which, i encourage, you, to, do, everyone, who's listening, to, this, just, take, some, time and, actually, get, it, set, up, you, don't have, to, start, depositing, from, day, one, go to, altoira, dot, com, slash, bankless, as, you can, tell, david, i, get, excited, about crypto, i, was, gonna, make, that, same, joke

take, it, from, the, guy, who, gets, really really, excited, about, this, it's, awesome good, taxes, all, right, it's, great uh, anyway, david, let, me, uh, let, me, ask, you the, question, we, begin, every, state, of, the nation, episode, with, uh, and, that, is, this what, is, the, state, of, the, nation, today sir, the, state, of, the, nation, is, denial ryan, i, am, in, complete, denial, about, the state, of, the, federal, reserve, and, i, want to, pick, jim, bianco's, brain, about, whether if, that's, a, healthy, denial, or, unhealthy denial, am, i, really, a, lot, allowed, to, just ignore, the, antics, of, the, fed, can, i, just

assume, that, the, crypto, markets, go, up only, forever, or, is, that, naive, and, should i, actually, be, fearful, uh, so, uh, i'm, in denial, and, i'm, trying, to, ask, myself, if that's, appropriate should, we, have, gotten, a, psychologist, on psychological, states and, so, what, you're, saying, is, like, you're in, denial, because, you, don't, want, to believe, that, macro, can, affect, crypto significantly, that, crypto, fundamentals should, kind, of, stand, on, their, own, and maybe, this, is, sort, of, a, wake-up, call from, jim, that, we're, getting, out, of, this episode, yeah, yeah, so, like, i, think, that macro, markets, can, throw, crypto, around, a

decent, amount, but, can, it, throw, it, into, a bear, market, that's, what, i'm, in, denial about, i, don't, think, it, can, throw, krypto into, a, bear, market, but, maybe, jim, has, a different, opinion, well, we're, about, to find, out, guys, we, will, be, back, right after, the, break, with, jim, bianco, to, talk all, about, this, we, want, to, thank, our sponsors, for, making, this, episode possible polygon, is, ethereum's, largest, and, most vibrant, scaling, solution, to, date, with millions, of, monthly, users, and, all, of, the biggest, defy, apps, the, polygon, ecosystem has, turned, into, a, blossoming, metropolis of, d5, activity, transactions, on, polygon

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help, steer, uniswap, in, the, direction, that you, think, it, should, go thank, you, uniswap, for, sponsoring bankless hey, everyone, we, are, back, with, jim, bianco jim, welcome, back, to, bankless, it's, great to, have, you, sir, hey, pleasure, to, be, here thank, you, uh, guys, jim, bianco, is, a president, macro, strategist, at, bianca research, he's, been, a, veteran, of, the, dot com, era, he's, an, expert, in, global, economy macro, stuff, i, turn, to, his, twitter threads, often, when, i'm, trying, to understand, all, of, this, stuff, he's, also, a defy, crypto, native, which, is, a, rare, breed

of, those, have, transitioned, both, the traditional, world, and, this, new, d5, world had, him, on, the, podcast, again, and, i, knew as, david, and, i, tried, to, unpack, what, is going, on, in, macro, we, had, to, have, jim, on so, jim, can, you, help, us, make, sense, of this, stuff, i, think, a, lot, of, people, in crypto, they, came, to, finance, by, way, of like, crypto, and, so, they, don't, understand when, you're, talking, about, things, like the, bond, market, and, quantitative tightening, quantitative, easing, they don't, understand, what, some, of, these terms, means, we, don't, have, those, things in, crypto, we, don't, yes, we, have, these

things, we, just, call, them, different things, right, uh, so, we're, hoping, you could, help, us, out, with, that, does, that sound, good that, sounds, good, in, fact, i, think, the reason, you, created, crypto, was, to, get away, from, these, ideas i, think, so, but, now, they're, now, they're coming, full, circle, as, david, said, we can't, just, keep, burying, our, heads, in, the sand, so, i, want, to, start, with, maybe, this um, to, make, sure, we, understand, with, with the, bond, market, and, we're, talking, about uh, sovereign, bonds, right, here, which, are very, important, financial, instruments, it seems, to, me

uh, and, um, you've, had, a, tweet, thread recently, that, i, want, to, kind, of, unpack and, understand, this, was, from, january, 9th and, you, open, this, tweet, thread, by, saying in, some, respects, what, happened, in, the bond, markets, last, week, was, epic something, we, might, be, talking, about, for many, years, okay, so, something, last, week happened, in, the, i, guess, this, is, two weeks, ago, happened, in, the, bond, market that, was, epic, something, we, might, be talking, about, for, years, what, is, that thing, what, happened uh, in, simple, terms, the, bond, market, got

killed, it, had, one, of, its, worst, weeks, on record, uh prices, sold, off, quite, a, bit, the, losses that, one, incurred, in, the, bond, market were, very, very, large, quick, word, about the, bond, market, and, i'm, hopefully, not going, to, go, too, far, into, the, weeds, with some, of, the, math, when, interest, rates, go down the, prices, of, bonds, get, more, volatile, we refer, to, that, as, positive, convexity and, so, when, you, have, record, low, interest rates the, amount, that, bond, prices, move, right

now is, huge, compared, to, 30, years, ago, or, 40 years, ago, when, we, had, 10, or, 12, interest rates, so, you, have, these, gigantic movements, in, bonds, and, in, the, first, week of, january you, had, one, of, the, biggest, plungers weekly, plunges, that, we've, ever, seen across, the, board, short, rates long, rates, um, you, know, in, real, rate bonds, basically, the, bond, market, got killed, and, that's, what, i, was, talking about, what, happened, was, epic, and, we might, be, talking, about, it, and, that, the

bond, market, got, really, took, a, left, turn and, had, some, and, got, spanked, pretty, bad to, begin, the, year and, what, are, the, implications, of, that, uh if, we, have, a, dead, bond, market, it, got killed, uh, how, what, does, that, mean, for every, other, market, why, is, that, so important yeah, so interest, rates, are, the, price, of, money, in the, trad, five, world, and, it, is, probably the, basis, where, everything, starts whether, you're, investing, in, companies, or running, a, company, or, buying, stocks, or buying, commodities, or, whatever, you, start

your, analysis, you, start, your, idea, with what, does, money, cost, me and, if, the, bond, market, is, signaling, to us that, money, is, going, to, cost, a, lot, more remember, lower, bond, prices, mean, higher yields, if, it's, signaling, to, us, that we're, going, to, see, much, more, expensive money that, changes, the, valuation, and, the metric, for, everything, else, in, the tradify, world, and, now by, extension, uh, the, crypto, world, as, well too, so, what, the, bond, market, was

signaling, was that, money, is, going, to, become, a, lot, more expensive, to, borrow and, that, is, something, that, we, haven't seen, or, had, considered, until, we, got right, to, the, beginning, of, the, year, and by, the, way, real, quick, why, did, it, happen at, the, beginning, of, the, year these, markets, are, so, institutionalized i'm, talking, about, the, trad, five, fixed income, market uh, is, so, institutionalized every, institution, gets, paid, you, get, paid a, performance, bonus, usually, on, the calendar, year

so, the, most, important, date for, institutions, since, december, 31st that, this, defines, their, bonus, that defines, their, income, for, that, year january, 1st, tends, to, be like, a, new, page, that's, been, turned, and it's, not, unusual, to, see, in, these, heavily institutionalized, markets, that, when, you turn, the, new, page, to, the, new, year, all, of a, sudden, a, market, takes, a, right, turn, and goes, either, up, big, or, down, big, this, year it, happened, to, be, down, big okay, so, the, bond, market's, going, down, big

so, can, you, remind, us, when, we're, talking about, bonds, are, are, we, talking, about like, corporate, bonds, sovereign, bonds like, the, bonds, of, nation, states, all, of that, and, then, who, sets, the, prices, this is, free, market, but, yet, um, what, is, that caused, by, at, the, root, of, things, is, that is, that, caused, by, central, bank, what jerome, powell, and, the, fed, actually, plan to, do, in, the, future, and, the, market's kind, of, anticipating, that, so, they, go, up or, down, based, on, what, they, think, the, fed is, going, to, do, in, the, future, what, are the, dynamics, that, actually, priced, the bond, market, and, what, bonds, are, we

talking, about, here so, usually, when, we, talk, about, interest rates, we're, talking, about, the, sovereign bonds, of, a, nation, now, in, the, u.s, that's the, u.s, treasury, market in, the, uk, that's, the, gilt, market, in, the japanese, market, that's, the, japanese government, bond, market, those, are, the bonds, issued, by, the, government, and typically, not, always, but, typically, they have, among, the, highest, quality, of, credit you, know, with, the, u.s, treasury, the concern, is, the, risk, is, not, that, the, us is, going, to, default, the, risk, is, is, that

interest, rates, are, going, to, rise, and your, prices, are, going, to, fall, so, when, we talk, about, interest, rates, rising, we're usually, talking, about, us, treasuries corporate, bonds, high-yield, bonds municipal, bonds, asset-backed, securities usually, get, priced, off, of, those, so, we usually, refer, to, what, where, corporate bonds, are, as, a, spread, or, a, premium, over that, risk-free, rate, of, treasury, so, if treasury, yields, are, going, up, corporate bond, yields, are, going, to, go, up, usually by, a, like, amount, and, if, there's

perceived, more, risk, because, there's, a credit, risk, their, spread, might, widen, and they, might, go, a, little, bit, more, so essentially, if, treasury, bond, yields, are going, up then, they, are, all, going, up, now, to, your second, part, of, your, question why, what's, got, them, going, it's, the, big, i word, inflation and, it's inflation, has, now become, a, point in, the, markets, and, i'll, talk, about, this a, little, bit, not, everybody, in, the, market believes, this

but, it's, not, transitory, anymore, at, least in, the, short, end, of, the, bond, market, what i, mean, by, that, is, people, that, trade short-term, bond, or, short-term, debt securities, two-year, notes, one-year, bills fed, funds, in, that, space those, players, have, decided, that, the biggest, problem, is, inflation it's, not, transitory and, the, federal, reserve, is, going, to, have to, deal, with, that, by, raising, rates, many times and, so, that's, what, they've, got, as, far, as

where, we, are, in, the, market, now is, in, the, longer, end, of, the, market, and in, the, equity, market, there's, a, little bit, of, disagreement, about, whether, or, not the, federal, reserve, is, going, to, raise rates, as, aggressively, as, the, short, end of the, market, thinks right, now, you, can, go, to, things, like, the fed, fund, futures, market, the, euro, dollar futures, market, there's, a, cash, market called, the, overnight, index, swaps, market and, what, they're, telling, you, is four, rate, hikes, for, this, year, are, priced in, we're, not, that, far, away, from, a, fifth

so, they're, a, big, aggressiveness, that's priced, in, the, market, you, ask, equity traders, now, that's, not, going, to, move that, much why, why, don't, they, think, the, fed's, going to, move, that, much because, they, don't, believe, that, the federal, reserve, would, ever, do, anything when, it, comes, to, the, markets, that, would upset the, economy or, the, stock, market, they, don't, believe that, the, fed, would, raise, rates, multiple times and, put, the, stock, market, or, the, economy at, risk and, from, 2008, to, 2020

they, were, right, the, stock, market, the, fed would, never, do, anything, to, put, the, stock market, at, risk, but, something, has, changed now, and, that's, inflation and, it's, showing, up, and, this, is, where, i think, a, lot, of, strategists, and economists um, are, either, unwilling, or, won't, go unwilling, to, go, there, don't, want, to, go there, whatever, word, you, want, to, use if, you, look, at, political, polling and, cbs, news, had, a, poll, out, this, weekend the, president's, approval, rating, is, in the, tank the, uh the, prospects, of, the, democrats, getting

re-elected, are, in, the, tank the, number, one, issue, in, the, country, is inflation, it, is, not, crime, it, is, not climate, change, it, is, not, covet, it, is inflation inflation, hits, everybody, there's, no escaping, it 40, percent, of, the, public has, le, this, was, a, federal, reserve, study done, right, before, the, pandemic, 40, of, the public, has, less, than, a, thousand, dollars of, savings, in, rents every, single, one, of, those, people, go, to

the, grocery, store, go, to, the, gas, pump, go to, the, mall, and, they, wind, up, buying, less every, month, than, they, did, the, previous month, because, of, inflation that's, what's, showing, up, in, the, polls and, so, when, people, say, well, the, fed, will never upset, the, stock, market, yeah, from, 2008, to 2020 you, had, that, 40, in, the, stock, market's interests, aligned, on, the, same, side but, now, they're, on, diverging, interest don't, raise, rates, jay, you, might, tank, the stock, market jay, do, something, about, inflation, because

you, got, 40, of, the, people, screaming, that they're, going, to, take, it, out, on, the democrat, party, in, november, so, he's, in, a bad, place, right, now, which, side, does, he go, to, does, he, err, on, the, side, of protecting, the, stock, market, or, does, he err, on, the, side, of, dealing, with, this incipit, inflation, problem and, more, and, more, i, think, the, markets are, coming, to, the, belief, he's, going, to err, on, the, side, of, this, incipit inflation, problem, and, get, aggressive, and raise, rates and, if, that, puts, the, stock, market, at risk, and, if, that, puts, the, economy, at

risk well, then, so, be, it, but, they, cannot not, deal, with, this, problem, that's, the dilemma, that, we're, facing, in, the, market right, now so, you, might, just, want, to, check, my understanding, uh, and, get, back, and, pick up, the, inflation, uh, thread, so, we, we, had this, big, dip, in, the, bond, market, where the, asset, prices, of, the, of, the, bonds dropped, significantly, and, as, a, result, of that, that, means, the, yields, go, up, because these, things, are, inversely, correlated the, prices, of, bonds, go, down, but, the yield, that, they, generate, goes, up, and

that, sets, a, new, level, for, the, cost, of money, that's, what, you're, talking, about with, how, much, money, costs, because, if, you can, get, a, dependable you, know, three, percent, ap yield, on, your, dollars, in, the, bond, market which, is, deemed, very, very, safe, perceived very, very, safe, by, investors, why, would you, go, take, your, usdc, and, take, it, into defy, like, when, where, there's, a, lot, more risk, like, you, could, just, get, a, very stable, return, and, so, like, the, it, pulls people, back, from, the, risk, spectrum, and says, like, hey, you, know, three, percent, on your, bonds, that's, not, too, bad, i'm, just

making, these, numbers, up, but, this, is, the example, and, so, this, is, why, perhaps, the stock, market, and, the, crypto, markets, are in, the, state, of, fear, right, now, because they, are, seeing, the, raising, rates raising, yields, out, of, bonds, after, prices have, gone, down, and, they're, saying, well, i have, to, i, don't, have, to, take, so, much risk, anymore, in, order, to, get, the, yield that, i, need, and, that, has caused, a, drop, in, risk, on, assets, and, so that's, what, we're, fearful, about, with, the stock, market, and, the, crypto, markets, what i'm, said, i'm, in, denial, about, um, and, all this, is, because, for, the, first, time, in

such, a, long, time, the, fed, has, been presented, with, a, new, problem, which, is inflation, so, okay, can, you, just, put ourselves, in, the, shoes, of, the, fed, uh, for for, right, now, because, they, have, they, had the, fed, has, a, dual, mandate, for, maximum employment, and, also, stable, prices, uh, and it, seems, that, they, have, thrown, maximum employment, maximal, employment, by, the wayside, in, lieu, of, stable, prices, can, you just, kind, of, do, the, cost, benefit analysis, that, you, think, that, the, fed, is doing, as, to, why, they've, determined

inflation, as, the, big, problem well, one, of, the, things, that, the, fed, is looking, at, and, we, have, to, be, honest, here is, political the, federal, reserve, is, 107, year, old institution, that, has, gotten, its reputation, as, an, inflation, fighter, that they, have, and whether, or, not, it's, been, paul, or, yelling before, him, or, bernanke, before, her they, have, repeatedly, said we, have, tools, to, deal, with, unwanted inflation okay, the, public, has, just, told, you, we have, unwanted, inflation, today, and, we

want, you, to, deal, with, it, today, right, now is, and, so, the, fed, has, got, a, a, choice that, they, have, to, make do, they, continue, to, push, this, idea, that no, no, no, you, may, think, it's, unwanted, but don't, worry, it, will, go, away, on, its, own otherwise, known, as, transitory, so therefore, we, have, to, do, nothing or does, the, fed, decide, that, if, they, do nothing and, they're, wrong there's, going, to, be, a, price, to, pay, from the, federal, reserve or, if, they, do, nothing

and, a, desperate, congress, looking, to, get reelected, and, i'm, not, trying, to, be partisan, here, by, saying, it's, the democrats, because, if, the, republicans were, in, the, majority, that's, exactly, the same, thing, about, them but, that, that, desperate, congress, might try, and, take, on, this, issue, themselves through, price, controls, or, some, other heavy-handed, tactic, to, try, and, bring down, prices, in, order, to, stave, off, a debacle during, the, election, in, november, the federal, reserve, i, think, is, looking, at those, although, they'll, never, say, it, but

they, are, and, they're, saying, we've, got, a political, choice, that, we've, got, to, make and, we've, got, to, deal, with, this inflation, problem, um, today, by, raising interest, rates, the, first, part, of, your question, real, quick, how, does interest, rates, going, up how, does, that, impact you, know, the, stock, market, and, then, maybe the, crypto, market well, one, of, the, other, things, the, fed does, is, what's, called, quantitative easing and, then, the, opposite, of, that, is quantitative, tiding, tightening, now, what is, that, very, simply

the, federal, reserve, has, a, bunch, of, banks that, are, required, to, hold, a, reserve account, with, the, fed, so, if, i'm, a, bank, of a, billion, dollars, in, size i, have, a, reserve, account, at, the, fed, and it, roughly, has, around, 110, million dollars, of, reserves, around, 11 the, federal, reserve, has, the, ability, to add, reserves, to, my, account or, drain, reserves, from, my, account, how, do they, do, that, they, just, change, the, number of, my, fed, uh you, know, if, if, a, commercial, bank, did that, everybody, goes, to, jail, but, if, a

central, bank, does, that, that's, called sophisticated, monetary, policy, is, what, it is, so, what, is, quantitative, easing, they call, up, my, bank, and, they, say, we, want, to buy 10, million, dollars, of, five, year, notes, so sell, us, 10, million, dollars, of, five, year notes, okay, i, did, now, how's, the, fed, going to, pay, for, it, they'll, say, to, me, you, know your, reserve, account, well, we'll, just erase, that, number, and, we'll, add, 10 million, more, to, it, and, so, they, created the, money, out, of, thin, air, in, order, to purchase, these, bonds, why, do, they, do, it well, if, the, fed, is, purchasing

uh if, the, fed, is, purchasing, 120, billion dollars, of, bonds, a, month, a, trillion, and a, half, a, year that, helps, to, hold, down, interest, rates that, helps to, create, a, buyer, of, bonds what, does, the, private, sector, do, private sector, looks, at, these, yields, and, says i'm, not, going, to, buy, these, these, very low overly, priced, low, prices, uh, or, very high-priced, low-yield, bonds, that, are overvalued i'm, gonna, go, look, somewhere, else, maybe i'll, buy, corporate, bonds, or, maybe, i'll

buy, stocks maybe, i, might, even, move, into, crypto, uh as, well, too, so, they, refer, to, that, as moving, out, the, risk, curve uh, milton, friedman, had, a, fancy, trace, for this, called, the, portfolio, balance channel so, that's, the, fear, is, if, the, fed, is going, to, start, raising, rates, ending quantitative, easing then, the, bond, market, needs, to, find, a trillion, and, a, half, dollar, buyer and, how, does, the, bond, market, find, a trillion, and, a half, dollar, buyer, well, it keeps, raising, interest, rates, by

selling, off, its, bonds, to, suck, money, in from, corporate, bonds, the, stock, market, uh maybe, even, the, crypto, markets, too, suck money, in, to, buy, their, instruments, and, so that's, why, the, markets, are, worried, about the, fed, raising, rates, you, the, fed, are buying, bonds, so, i, don't, have, to, i, could go, play, in, stocks, and, crypto, okay, well you're, gonna, keep, selling, off, bonds, and raising, rates, and, remember, interest rates, are, the, price, of, money, you're gonna, make, money, more, and, more, and, more expensive, until, i, make, the, decision, best

place, for, me, to, put, my, money, is, in, some safe, high, yielding treasury, security, so, what, yield, do, they have, to, go, to, well, how, much, do, they, have to, lower, the, price, so, that's, why, the fear, is, as, the, fed, starts, to, fight inflation by, raising, rates, they're, signaling, no more, qe no, more, that, they're, going, to, be, buying bonds, and, maybe, they're, going, to, do, qt that, they, oh, because, one, of, the, other things, the, fed, does is, they, own, seven, trillion, dollars, worth of, bonds, yes, seven, trillion

when, they, mature, so, if, a, hundred million, dollars, worth, of, bonds, mature, a billion, dollars, of, bonds, mature, today they, buy, another, billion, dollars, to, hold their, holdings, stating, maybe, they, just let, them, mature, that, would, be, qt, that further, adds, to, the, supply, that, the market, has, to, take, in and, that, further, puts, pressure, on, other markets, that, we, want, to, drag, money, out of, those, other, markets, to, buy, treasury securities, so, if, the, fed, is, worried about, inflation, and, interest, rates, are going, to, go, up, it's, a, signal

the, bond, market, wants, a, trillion, dollars worth, of, buyers, and, the, bond, market, will find, a, way, to, get, a, trillion, dollars worth, of, money, in, other, places, to transfer, back, to, the, bond, market, it, will sell, it, will, sell, make, its, price, go lower, and, lower, and, make, it, look, more and, more, attractive, with, a, higher, and higher, yield, until, it, does, suck, all, that money, in, that's, why, you, see, stocks, being wobbly, and, at, the, end, of, the, risk, curve even, cryptos, being, wobbly, too, it, might suck, money, back, the, other, way, because what, we, saw, through, 21, was, all, the, money was, going, one, way, from, the, tradify

markets, to, cryptos this, is, uh, thank, you, for, talking, about that, in, such, a, clear, way, jim, like, i think, this, is, going, to, benefit, a, lot, of listeners, who, are, maybe, for, the, first time, actually, understanding, the, dynamics at, play, here, so, you, know, thank, you, for that, and, i, want, to, get, back, on, the inflation, train, in, just, a, minute, but before, we, do something, you, said, there, sort, of, brought brought, some, more, questions, to, you, know in, into, my, mind, so, it, seems, like, the, fed is, is, indicating, signaling, that, they're going, to, raise, uh, interest, rates, right and, the, market, has, said, maybe, that's

going, to, happen, three, times, uh, this, year maybe, four, times, not, so, sure, and, they've also, maybe, signaled, that, they're, going to, stop, quantitative, easing, and, do quantitative, tightening, but, like, can, we talk, about, this, whole, signaling, thing right, it's, like, it, seems, very, bizarre, to me, right, why, doesn't, the, fed, just, say hey, guys, here's, what, we're, gonna, do, boom boom, boom, why, is, there, all, of, this, like talking, in, code, and, this strange, fed, speak, that, happens, the market, has, to, analyze, everything, that powell, says and and, say, okay, here's, what, he, really

meant, to, where, like, here's, what's, going to, happen, as, a, result, why, can't, they just, speak plainly, about, what, they, intend, to, do, is is, the, signaling, aspect, an, element, of how, this, whole, system, works they, have, a, fancy, word, for, it, they, call it, forward, guidance, is, what, they, call, it so, yes, the, signaling, is, what, they're afraid, of, in, the, market is, doing, something, that, upsets, the market, quite, a, bit, and, so, they, like, to signal, it, in, fact, that, signaling, even gets, a, little a, little, bit, more, nuanced, than, that robin, wigglesworth, at, the, ft, or, nick

timaros, at, the, wall, street, journal, will occasionally, write stories, like, senior, federal, reserve officials, are, thinking, about, x that's, usually, them, calling, up, the papers, and, saying, hey, tell, everybody we're, thinking, about, doing, quantitative tightening a, little, bit yeah, okay, and, then, if, the, market, likes it, okay that's, the, policy, if, the, market, doesn't like, it, i, don't, know, what, the, hell they're, talking, about, at, the, wall, street journal, we, had, no, plan, on, doing, that whatsoever, so, that, that's, part, of, the forward, guidance, thing, now, of, course, i'm

embellishing, about, a, little, bit, about, uh it, for, just, to, be, funny, but, they, do, they think, they, do, kind, of, drop, these, hints either, through, speeches, or, through conversations, with, with, the, media, um, as well, too, because, they, don't, want, the market, to, be, surprised they, are, definitely, afraid, especially, in the, 08, period that, they, come, up, and, they, just, say, okay today, we've, decided, something, else, and the, markets, completely, freak, out, and crash, they, don't, want, to, be, responsible

for, it, so, they, want, to, try, and, lead, us all, you, ready, here, we, go, we're, going, to do, it, i'm, telling, you, we're, going, to, do it, here, it, comes, ready, one, two, three there, we, did, it, so, no, one's, going, to, be surprised, when, it, happens again, they, call, that, forward, guidance, so that, is, by, design, the, way, that, they, like to, do, their, policy, which, is, why, we obsess, over, every, word, they, say, and, we look, at, the, speeches, and, stuff, because we're, trying, to, define, divine, the forward, guidance, of, what, they're, trying to, do it's, quite, an, elaborate, dance, between the, fed, and, the, markets, but, you, know

this, is, the, way, it, works, uh, certainly, so let's, get, back, on, that, inflation, train for, a, minute, because, it, wasn't, but, six months, ago, that, i, remember, um, jay, powell talking, about, tr, using, this, term transitory, inflation, okay, i'm, not, sure that, whether, this, is, part, of, signaling or, part, of, the, dance, or, whether, he actually, believed, that, that, inflation was, transitory, what's, what's, your, belief it, seems, like, now, the, fed, is, is, ready, to take, off, that, label, and, say, no, we actually, have, inflation, what's, your belief, about, inflation, like

is, it, a, persistent, problem, and, how persistent, is, it, are, there, some, elements that, are, still, transitory, and, you, know could, inflation, go, down, without, the, fed intervening, what's, your, overall, take, on the, inflation, story, here well, a, couple, things, just, so, everybody has, a, context one, year, ago the, inflation, rate, was, 1.4, percent and, now, it's, 7 there, were, people, a, year, ago, like, me that, was, worried, i, was, worried, a, year ago, that, inflation, is, going, to, be, one, of the, big, stories, of, the, year