Did Prediction Markets Win the Super Bowl?
Prediction markets may not have outright dominated the Super Bowl, but data suggests growing pressure on sportsbooks.
This year's Super Bowl — a Seahawks-Patriots matchup that lacked the celebrity gravity of last year's Taylor Swift-centric Chiefs-Eagles event — was the first where prediction markets were definitively forecasted to be competitors to traditional sportsbooks.
Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest prediction markets, both ran markets on and around the game, the halftime show, the ads, etc. And the preliminary numbers paint an interesting, if mixed, picture.
A quick caveat before we begin: sportsbooks haven't reported their aggregate figures yet — that takes a few days. So this is a post-mortem working with projections on the sportsbook side and actual volume figures from prediction markets.
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David Christopher
David is a writer/analyst at Bankless. Prior to joining Bankless, he worked for a series of early-stage crypto startups and on grants from the Ethereum, Solana, and Urbit Foundations. He graduated from Skidmore College in New York. He currently lives in the Midwest and enjoys NFTs, but no longer participates in them.
