# Justin Drake Puts Quantum "Q-Day" Odds at 50% by 2032

*Author: Bankless*
*Published: Jun 2, 2026*
*Source: https://www.bankless.com/read/news/justin-drake-puts-quantum-q-day-odds-at-50-by-2032*

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Ethereum researcher Justin Drake dropped fresh numbers on the quantum threat this morning, [posting on X](https://x.com/drakefjustin/status/2061793725299224676) he thinks there's now a coin-flip chance of a quantum computer cracking live cryptography by 2032. 

> Justin really burying the punchline here:"So let me attempt to partially fill the silence... Given everything I know, including scary non-public information...I now put the odds of qday by 2032 at 50%. 10% by 2030... [https://t.co/9CTTOaUgm9](https://t.co/9CTTOaUgm9)— David Hoffman (@TrustlessState) [June 2, 2026](https://x.com/TrustlessState/status/2061797581500432586?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)

### **What's the Scoop?**
- **The Breakthrough:** On March 31st, Google Quantum AI revealed a 10x speedup for Shor's algorithm against elliptic curve cryptography, demonstrated on secp256k1 (the curve securing Bitcoin and Ethereum signatures). 
- **Keeping the Secret:** After what Google described as engagement with the U.S. government, the team locked its key optimizations behind a zero-knowledge proof, which Drake (a co-author on the paper) framed as a first-of-its-kind act of academic censorship.
- **Streisand Effect:** That secrecy didn't hold, though. As Drake noted, French quantum researcher André Schrottenloher just independently rediscovered the main optimization and posted it to arXiv, while Google's Craig Gidney admitted in a blog post that he'd sat on the same trick for a year under pressure to keep quiet.
- **10K Qubits:** A stealth startup called Oratomic now claims that just 10,000 physical qubits could run Shor on secp256k1 using neutral-atom hardware, a figure Drake called "mind-bogglingly low." After a couple hundred hours researching the tech, Drake said it's real, noting that even Google has opened a neutral-atom lab.
- **The Odds:** With all this context, Drake now puts q-day (the moment a quantum computer breaks production crypto) at 50% by 2032 and 10% by 2030. The window for migrating to quantum-resistant, hash-based cryptography is getting that much more unforgiving, it seems.