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Crypto prices are up to start the fourth quarter of 2025, despite an inauspicious macro backdrop. The rally is being lead by prominent alts, with ETH and SOL up over 4% on the day, and supported by BTC, which briefly traded above $118k this morning.
What's the Scoop?
- U.S. Shutdown: The United States federal government shutdown once the clock struck midnight. "Essential" workers will continue working without pay until the shutdown lifts, and while payments to non-discretionary social programs like Social Security will continue, services and support may be delayed.
- Poor Jobs Report: Private sector hiring statistics released by ADP disappointed with 32k job losses in September against expectations for 51k jobs gained. Assuming the government shutdown persists, the BLS will not publish its anticipated September payroll report on Firday.
- Increased Cut Odds: After the publication of ADP labor data, Federal reserve rate cut odds jumped. According to CME FedWatch, the market now expects a 99% chance of a 25 basis point (0.25%) cut in October, up from a 96.2% chance yesterday.
BITCOIN JUMPS ON WEAK JOBS DATA, FED CUT BETS
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 1, 2025Bitcoin hit a two-week high of $116,910 after ADP reported a 32,000 job loss in September (vs. +45,000 expected), fueling expectations of a Fed rate cut on Oct. 29. Lower rates support risk assets, while seasonality also favors…
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