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Bitcoin is now negative on a year-to-date basis after failing below $92,000 for the first time in nearly seven months, as traders leaned into bearish narratives.
What’s the Scoop?
- About-Face: Bitcoin’s drop from its $126,000 October peak to the low-$90Ks has erased all of its 2025 gains. Bitcoin’s market cap has shed about $600B since October.
- Cycle Panic: With no clear trigger for the selloff, traders have fallen back on the familiar four-year halving cycle playbook — even as the deep-pocketed institutional flows make its predictive power increasingly shaky.
- Macro Drag: A long government shutdown, near-endless trade war fears, and weak liquidity have weighed on crypto broadly, creating a fragile backdrop for price action.
- Macro Over Mechanics: Analysts argue BTC now behaves more like a macro asset than a supply-driven one, responding to liquidity, policy shifts and dollar dynamics more than to halving rhythms.
