# New U.S. Unemployment Numbers Higher Than Expected

*Author: Jack Inabinet*
*Published: Jul 18, 2024*
*Source: https://www.bankless.com/de/new-u-s-unemployment-numbers-higher-than-expected*

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U.S. unemployment claims for last week came in hotter than expected, with continuing claims rising to 1.867M, the highest level since COVID vaccinations were rolled out *en masse* in November 2021.

## **What’s the scoop?**
- **Above Expectations:** Unemployment claims for the second week of July were 243k, up 20k from the week prior and 8% above analyst expectations for a 225k increase. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims soared to 279k, with major upticks noted in Texas (attributed to hurricane impacts), Michigan, Minnesota, and California.

## **Bankless take:**
Although this morning’s release of unemployment data did not directly correspond to the market slide, the risks of a deteriorating global economy are likely top of mind for many investors.

While continuing claims have not yet reached disaster level, U.S. unemployment has risen sharply in recent months to [trigger](https://x.com/JoeConsorti/status/1810727281624547564) the “Sahm Rule,” a lagging indicator that has accurately predicted every recession since 1950 with only one false positive, indicating that investors should pay careful attention to emerging employment risks.

> claims make first noticeable rise that cannot be explained by bad seasonals.   not of great significance but now requires close watching.  if is significance will see a 70,000 plus jump next week.   The Monetary Frontier will have the complete report and slides. [pic.twitter.com/bT7nX91M3G](https://t.co/bT7nX91M3G)— George Robertson (@BickerinBrattle) [July 18, 2024](https://twitter.com/BickerinBrattle/status/1813914978786701526?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)