Bull Market Price Predictions With Ledger

Ethereum in the two thousands is cheap. I think Solana in the one hundreds is cheap. And I think Bitcoin under a hundred K is cheap. I I think quarter million to half a million dollar Bitcoin makes complete sense. And I think that ten thousand dollar Ethereum makes complete sense. And I think that, you know, five hundred dollar Solana makes complete sense. And I don't think those are that aggressive as targets.

Welcome to Bakelist, where we explore the frontier of internet money and internet finance. And today we are exploring some charts, some technical analysis, some trading charts, and we're doing it with our friend Ledger. Ledger from LedgerCast, Ledger from Up Only. Ledger is a friend of Posh, certainly. And whenever I want to look at charts, uh, I need some help because I'm not a charty chart person. So we bring on Ledger to help navigate some charts. I present Ledger with four charts to kick the conversations off: Bitcoin dominance, the ETH BTC ratio, the ETH to Solana ratio, and then the Solana USD price. As we have all kind of passed through the market turmoil of the Japanese yen unwind uh debacle that kind of permeated, rippled throughout all the markets. I think this is an opportunity to kind of just check in, check in and zoom out. Uh I think these four charts that I'm presenting Ledger with kind of tell a story, and I want to see his hear his interpretations of them. Uh and then he also takes over and starts to drive the charts as well, opening up the Dixie chart, uh, the interest uh the 10 year uh interest rate chart uh as well as a few others. Uh and just you know, Ledger's a wise man. Uh he's seen a thing or two in the markets. Uh and so just always always want to get his perspective as to where we are when we look at the charts uh and what this means for crypto as we move forward. So it's a pretty fun conversation. I hope you all enjoy it.

Let's go ahead and get right to that conversation with Ledger. But first, a moment to talk about some of these fantastic sponsors that make the show possible, especially Kraken. If you have been compelled to make any moves as a result of this conversation, I compel you, I ask you to do it on Kraken if you are entering or exiting crypto. Hopefully entering. And if you want to do that on Kraken, there's a link in the show notes to getting started with Kraken today. Bank Lost Station, I'm here with the lovely Ledger. Ledger, how are you doing today, my mind?

I'm doing great. How are you?

Good, good, good to see you, dude. Uh we always bring you on when I want to look at charts because anytime I look at a chart with just me and Ryan, I realize that it's just like it's embarrassing and I shouldn't be doing that. At least at least with interpreting them. Uh with the recent yen trade unwinds that kind of just pummeled the markets. There's like an opportunity, I think, to kind of like zoom out and kind of do a checkpoint of like all of the crypto charts. Uh so I'm sharing on the screen here four charts that I think are kind of emblematic of maybe perhaps the current state of crypto. Uh we got the Bitcoin dominance chart, which has been up only for a year and a half now. We have the ETH BTC ratio, which has been down only uh for like two years, uh, Sol ETH, which is painting new highs, uh, and then Sol USD, just because uh Solana has kind of been one of the meta focuses of this particular cycle. Uh I think this is hopefully just like kind of an opportunity, just to look at these charts and get your interpretation as to like what the vibe is uh from a man who knows how to navigate charts. Uh so maybe uh I know you always have.

pretty like pretty deep analytical takes because you are both following the crypto industry while also looking at the charts. When n when I present to you these four charts that are all like right next to each other on the screen here, uh w what's the first kind of thought that comes to mind? What's what's the first uh thing you think about?

Uh yeah. I mean, I think first off, it's it's not too surprising that Bitcoin dominance has done well. I feel like a lot of

Well, let's back up the narrative just a tad. Like, I think a lot of people are wondering, is this cycle over and that kind of stuff? And I actually think that the cycle, if you will, is has probably hardly begun. Not to get overly bullish, just to say, like, what we've done so far feels more like the experimental stage and the in between stage of what's probably a longer market cycle than we're historically accustomed to.

Where I think you'll look back at the ETF launches and um some of the dynam, you know, the changes in the ecosystem as more of the beginning of a cycle or like a early cycle pause

that feels it if you're trying to give a corollary that's more like 2019 ish than anything else. Um whereas there's a lot of people that they might have uh gotten rich and then poor again or whatever on meme coins or something. Like I that feels like a smaller meta to me within a broader.

ma crypto macro cycle, like when what people think of when they think of, you know, Bitcoin making new highs or stuff happening. I dn I don't know if you see this, David, but I see this where like

most people aren't really asking me about crypto at all in my real life. Like they're not

They're not excited about buying crypto. They're not like or even stocks in general, even though you've seen some amazing runs on like NVIDIA and other things. I feel like overall, I would say relative to inflation in particular, like the real values of the stock market has really just been chugging along, more so than, you know, in some kind of state of euphoria or anything like that. And I think, you know, Bitcoin's really been or crypto has really been pretty modest as a whole. And it it's been more of a um a zero-sum game within crypto markets. Um, and so some things have won and some things have lost, and um a lot of things have round-tripped. And what you're showing on the screen right now is more of what are what are the assets that have kind of showed up as as as dominant assets. And one of the biggest things that I think you're presenting here with Solana is like Ethereum did um in the in the last market cycle starting in 2020, Solana is essentially entering the big boy table, where I think it we can safely define Solana as a major.

Not pure not purely by market cap or like total market cap, but like

n um

d

Yeah, mind share development activity, um, people that care about it, like people that care about it no matter what the price is. Um, it's not like it's survived a thing. It survived a hardship, like with the FTX failure and going, you know, from a price perspective, going from 250 plus down to $8, and then and then has recovered and forget whether it's in price expiration or something. It's just that it didn't really impact the fact that people cared about it and kept building on it. And I think that makes uh that's just as important as market cap in terms of it becoming a major. And so I think you create this network effect, this per perpetual motion type of thing where it it is in a new arena and it's not a cathedral, like it's more of a bazaar. Um, whereas a lot of these like defined L1s or L2 ecosystems are still like, well, hopefully if we build it, people will come. And you haven't all you don't necessarily have like massive amounts of evidence of those doing so. And so I think like Soul ETH uh in in particular, or even if you looked at soul, I mean soul relative to anything, I think it's it's

fairly fairly well outperformed as its arrival, if you will. Um and then

But within that, that's the that's the inner meta of soul becoming a major. Soul's not at all time highs. You know what I mean? Like ETH is not at all, I mean ETH is not at all time highs. ETH is underperformed,

probably because it because we're not necessarily pulling in so many brand new people that

because Soul has gained, ETH is actually maybe like it may have gained, but just not as as quickly as Soul. So it's lost on a relative basis. Um and and Bitcoin has entered its own uh teenage years as a as a macro instrument to the legacy market. Like

And and that's thanks to the ETFs. And so, um, but a lot of this is still cyclical to me. I still I personally am like really bullish on all three of these assets. And so therefore seeing these swings and relative values is more fun than it is anything else because if they were static, then there's no trade to be made. But when they're not static, it gives you an opportunity to identify value. And uh so that's kind of the framing that I would use uh for these before we dig into like the specifics of what do I think's gonna happen next or whatever.

Let me throw some uh vibes at you that I think that you'll agree with. And so double check me if I'm wrong. Um Bitcoin dominance has been up for a year, ETHBTC has been down for two years, uh, Solana has been on the uptrend for coming up to a year now. Uh and I kind of think that um because I definitely have started to move in more towards your your uh side of the of the argument, of which we actually never have been in a market cycle. We're more in just like this period where crypto people are doing insular crypto things for the last 12 months. And as a result of that, because cycles historically have been defined as many new people come into the industry, retail comes in, there's a new game to play. Last cycle was NFTs, uh, the cycle before was the ICO movement. We hadn't we haven't had that. We've just had some crypto people doing crypto things inside of the crypto industry. And as a result, there's been some trends that haven't had any reason to uh change. Uh the growth of Bitcoin dominance being like a very big one. Uh and I also would say like Solana, the rise of Solana is like the actual um exception that kind of makes the rule. Whereas Solana had this idiosyncratic moment with uh the FTX collapse, which like oversold it by a large degree, because it had believers in the Solana ecosystem even before FTX collapsed. Uh and then it also rebounded alongside this like meme coin thing, which is this again, insular uh self-referential crypto activity that a lot of DGens do, that also really kind of just went alongside the growth, the rebounding of Solana post-FTX. Solana kind of all got re-rated at once, once with the double whammy of stopped being oversold in December of 2023 with a Jito airdrop. And then you had the addition of just like, well, it's also it's got it's got the current casino that the DGens enjoy, which is the mean coins. And that's why uh while ETH BTC has been down for two years, Solana ETH ratio has been only up for one year. Uh, and that's kind of like the

The the middle the middle of the lull market. That's been like the thing that has like defined the last like twelve months or so. But meanwhile, we have no actual there's no market cycle here. We are kind of just like in this limbo period waiting for new people to come in and actually define what a new cycle might look like. That's kind of a vibe. Do you do you agree with that?

Yeah, I think it it makes sense. And I think Solana it benefited from with meme coin mania, if you will.

Um

Maybe that was its like Yams type moment for you know like ETH ETH D5 merchants. I don't I don't know if it has as direct of a corollary because I think what Solana's actually doing really well is capturing maybe like this D-pin market or you know the um uh this corollary to like quasi real world assets or or instrumentation. Whereas ETH I think is is really further establishing its dominance for like big boy financial markets and what a what are those what do those look like for ETH? Like the the largest lend and borrow markets in the world can exist on ETH and um

And and you know, like there's things like I uh I'm just I'm not chilling bags or anything. It's just like tr I'm trying to think of some and I've been out of some of the main day uh day to day. But if you think of like the heliums of the world, you know, like putting networks, real world networks on on chain, um, and there's a lot of them. Um I think Solana's done a really good job of of capturing some of that. And so I think you'll see you'll continue to see that where like different blockchains start to serve very specific purposes for the sake of speed or for the sake of um durability or for the sake of reliability, um, you know, platforms will continue to choose certain certain assets over others. Um, I mean, I've continued to be really impressed with like how well DeFi works all the time, no matter what, no matter what you throw at it. Like if you look at um a lot of like the curve liquidation drama was pretty funny, like I mean, pretty sad, but like also kind of interesting. Um, but how well

like even curve curve oriented markets maintained themselves, uh much less like the derivative effects if you look at Ave and other stuff. And

you know, compound got attacked recently and I guess figured it out. And you know, like there's there's

there's a good stuff happening on all chains. And I don't think I I don't know. I'm kind of anti maximalist, I guess. And especially so right now. But yeah, we're not we're not

We're not seeing like the major narratives evolve and

like seeing outside stuff come in. And even VC volume is down and things like that. You know, like despite price being good. These are all signs of this consolidation, you know, early cycle or mid cycle type stuff, not late cycle type stuff. And I think all the late cycle doomers are wrong, basically.

Mm-hmm.

I think the other thing that's kind of worth noting as we zoom out and look at this uh the landscape of the charts as a whole is that Bitcoin has passed the 2021 uh all time high only only twice. Uh it first passed it when it hit $72,000 in March, and then it did it again where it hit $71,000 uh in May. Yeah. Uh but we haven't been able to sustain uh Bitcoin has not been able to sustain the all time highs uh beyond that. Um and so and then also ETH.

Even with the ETF, even though like a lot of the ETF juice is is still left to be squeezed, ETH is at sub-three thousand dollars. Like it got up to four thousand dollars with within striking distance of its old on all-time high, but it actually just never even got any closer than that. And now it's all-time high seems very, very far away. And like you said, Solana also just not at its old all-time high. Uh and I'm I'm not at contrasting, whatever the opposite of contrast is, alongside with the fact that we don't have any new new users coming into crypto, those things seem to make sense where we have like the ETFs, but no new users. And so therefore we only have like this being within like striking distance of all times highs, but no any like net new price discovery.

So I I think that there's like

a lot of

Assumptions that people make, like, you know what, just because we have, we're gonna have yet another four year market cycle, you know, because that's how the halving works or whatever. And I think, honestly, I think the ETS, for example, might have a bigger

impact on

um demand than the halving itself. Um, and it may be doubly so, but it also might just be

On the opposite side of that, headwinds in the broader global market are better presented in crypto markets because they're in more traditional assets now. Um, therefore, like election stuff that almost always creates like

uncertainty and, you know, potential downside or or kind of at best consolidation for a few months prior to getting certainty later in the election cycle.

I actually think that's impacting crypto right now in a big way, especially because crypto is a policy item in this election in America. And I don't really think the election results will have a huge impact on price. It may have a huge impact on policy, especially down the line, like beyond Bitcoin. Um, I think it could have a big impact on you know DeFi and and crypto policy, depending on who's elected. Um, but I think seeing I'm on a monthly chart right now, seeing like six months of consolidation after prior all time highs, it may feel kind of depressing. But when you look at a monthly chart, like there's nothing

wrong with this. You know, like this is just totally normal. Stop being bored. Like go do something. You know what I mean? Like people will chop themselves up to death rather than just sit on their hands and do not

Nothing.

And do nothing. Yeah. Like they will they will just freak out all the time. And when you just look at Bitcoin by itself, like we are not outside the world in crypto where you need this chart to be healthy for your other charts to be healthy by and large. Now you can have this chart in consolidation and somebody's making like 100 Xs on like a current meta. And that's great because they're just getting wealthier. They're taking money from people that were worse at the game than they are. And then that money will be put into better and smarter hands theoretically, um, in that kind of zero sum environment. But then you're also preparing for what does it look like when when broader markets are interested in this asset?

Um, and so all this correlates back to to my mind, like you know, macro stuff, like where rates, where is the dollar, where's all that stuff going on? And all that stuff is honestly good. People don't talk about that a whole lot, but like the Dixie looks like it's it's uh got downside potential, which usually correlates really nicely with bull markets in crypto. Um, I have these lines that are essentially associated to where did bull markets begin. And if you look at this, it essentially looks like a mid cycle. The Dixie is on a devaluing trajectory. And in in my mind, I don't even know when I drew this right here, this little like heads and shoulders consolidation thing. Um because I haven't recorded podcasts in months. Um but like um not to brag.

But it's like I didn't need to po record a podcast. Um

I I think like I I think you could see um the Dixie go down like sub a hundred over the next couple of years and get back to that mean at the in the 90s and that almost certainly is good for crypto whether that um whether that

that vertical delta is the same as these like these cycles are fairly similar in length and they aligned pretty well with bull uh crypto bull markets you know this is December 2013 December 16 March 2020 um November 2022

And um

and and this is this is potentially like if that g continues to go down, I think that's gonna be good for crypto.

Dollar down, crypto up. Um generally in cycles. It's it's it's much harder. Um

yeah, it it it's much harder when that's that that's working against you. Um and so if that

What the Dixie is. The Dixie DXY is an index of dollar strength. Uh so when the Dixie goes down, it means like generally f assets go up.

yeah.

Yeah. And so um, you know, when you when you compare that to the Bitcoin chart itself, like that consolidation feels more normal. Like it aligns up actually with a lot of that that consolidation in the dollar as well.

Um and so

I I think the longer we consolidate here,